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Water Resources Management

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07-12-2023

Research on the Degree of Non-Stationarity in Extreme Precipitation in the Continental United States

Authors: Junbo Shao, Jingcai Wang, Wenyue Wang, Fan Li, Chen Wu

Published in: Water Resources Management | Issue 2/2024

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Abstract

The non-stationarity of identifying hydrological extreme sequences is essential for understanding the patterns of hydrological systems and conducting reasonable risk assessments. Currently, research on detecting non-stationarity primarily determines whether the parameters of the sequence change through statistical tests. The study introduces the concept of distribution change to detect non-stationarity and proposes the Cumulative Distribution function Change Indicator (CDCI) to quantify the degree of non-stationarity in extreme sequences. Based on Hourly Precipitation Data from 102 U.S. Weather Stations, 1975–2021. Comparison with other methods commonly used for non-stationarity identification validates the reasonableness of CDCI. Additionally, it explores the relationship between non-stationarity, distribution, and return period based on CDCI. The research results demonstrate that: (1) Distribution change can reflect the non-stationarity of sequences, and CDCI is more sensitive compared to conventional non-stationarity identification methods; (2) By combining CDCI with return period change, the response of distribution to non-stationarity can be identified, including the location and degree of distributional change. The study demonstrates the feasibility and validity of distributional change being used as a measure of non-stationarity in hydrological extreme sequences. Furthermore, the results reveal the possible relationship between non-stationarity, distribution change, and return period change.

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Title: Research on the Degree of Non-Stationarity in Extreme Precipitation in the Continental United States
Authors: Junbo Shao
Jingcai Wang
Wenyue Wang
Fan Li
Chen Wu
Publication date: 07-12-2023
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Water Resources Management / Issue 2/2024
Print ISSN: 0920-4741
Electronic ISSN: 1573-1650
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03683-x

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