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Published in:
2023 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Risk-Informed Decision-Making on Volcanic Hazards
Author : Gordon Woo
Published in: Advances in Natural Hazards and Volcanic Risks: Shaping a Sustainable Future
Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland
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Abstract
The safety of residents and tourists in volcanic regions is traditionally managed through an alert system with discrete levels ranging from no unrest to a major volcanic eruption. In recent years, substantial progress has been made in quantitative volcano risk modelling, which can generate estimates of eruption probability that can refine the discrete alert levels. The estimation of eruption probability is an important scientific interface between the volcanological community and public officials. It can help inform important safety decisions such as when to call a population evacuation or restrict tourist access, or conversely, when to allow people to return home or tourists to visit. The concept of risk-informed decision-making on volcanic hazards is explained and motivated by the need for all stakeholders to be more knowledgeable about the risk assessment process. Illustrations of the application of risk-informed decision-making are given, including the 2022 volcanic crises in Tonga and the Azores.