12. Scenario Analyses of Automotive Energy

This chapter provides a further integrated analysis of these energy problems, introduces a comprehensive analytical framework and modeling tools, and focuses on an analysis and evaluation of several scenarios related to vehicle energy systems. The aim is to provide an understanding of the essential development of automotive energy in China as well as to offer a scientific, structured data basis for choice of technology and policy formulation regarding sustainable automotive energy.

This chapter presents five scenarios for the future development of China’s automotive energy: a reference scenario, a scenario for developing electric vehicles, a scenario for developing fuel-cell vehicles, a scenario for developing biofuels, and an integrated policy scenario. A systematic and in-depth analysis is made about the role of innovations in key vehicle energy technology, such as with pure electric vehicles, fuel-cell vehicles, biofuels, and energy-saving technologies, in creating a sustainable vehicle energy system in China; this will include assessing the contribution to improving energy security, reducing GHG emissions, reducing transport costs, and upgrading the automotive energy industry. At the same time, conditions toward achieve the various scenarios and attendant problems will be examined. In addition, the possible role of traffic demand management in establishing sustainable vehicle energy is investigated in the integrated policy scenario.