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2018 | Book

Why Should the Individual and Organization Practice Scenario Thinking? Read chapter Read first chapter

Scenario Thinking

Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World

Authors: Prof. George Cairns, Prof. George Wright

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Part of: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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About this book

Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development.

What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often.

Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings.

Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions.

This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
1. Why Should the Individual and Organization Practice Scenario Thinking?
Abstract
Scenarios have been used over decades by governments, businesses and non-governmental and not-for-profit organizations. Across each of these sectors, examples like the Singapore government, Shell Global and the UK National Council for Voluntary Organisations show the value attached to scenarios. In this age of uncertainty surrounding political, social, economic and environmental changes across the world, we see a clear need for all individuals and organizations to use scenario thinking. In the past year, as we complete our writing in early 2017, we have seen the unfolding of events that, as our later examples of scenario projects will illustrate, were found totally implausible, and even laughable, less than a year ago.
George Cairns, George Wright
2. Working with Scenarios: Introducing the Basic Method
Abstract
In this chapter, we set out the various stages of what we term the ‘basic method’ of scenario development. This method and the modes of inquiry that underpin it are fundamental to the augmented approaches that we introduce later, so we advise reading carefully and understanding fully. We illustrate the approach at each stage with examples and suggest that you work through a similar example from your own field as you proceed.
George Cairns, George Wright
3. Incorporating Stakeholders into Scenarios
Abstract
As we have seen, the ‘basic method’ of constructing scenarios draws on three sources of input from the members of the scenario team, namely: (a) perspectives on the seemingly predetermined elements of the future (in relatively stable nations like Sweden, Singapore and New Zealand, this might be the proportion of the population in the 70+ age bracket over the next decade), (b) views on the critical uncertainties in the future—from the PESTEL framework—that have a potential and significant impact on the issue to hand, but where the nature and degree of this impact is not currently knowable; and (c) the possible actions of stakeholders—clients, customers, regulators, competitors, etc.—as they react to unfolding events to preserve and enhance their own interests. These inputs inform the various stages of the basic method and lay the foundations for constructing four scenarios. Within the various augmentations of the basic method that we have introduced before and will discuss in detail later, these same three sources remain central to the scenario process.
George Cairns, George Wright
4. Building on the Basic Method: Power, Ethics and Critical Scenario Method
Abstract
In this chapter, we set out the various stages and options for undertaking two augmented and more highly-developed scenario approaches. The first of these is a simple extension of the basic method that is designed to enable you to develop a deeper understanding of the context within which your focal issue of concern is situated. The second is a more complex augmentation of the basic method that builds on the stakeholder analysis frameworks from Chap. 3, bringing into scenario analysis explicit considerations of issues of power and of the ethics and moral consequences of decision making.
George Cairns, George Wright
5. Scenarios and Decision Analysis
Abstract
In this chapter, we first provide a numerical method for evaluating an organisation’s strategies against the range of constructed scenarios. How should this be accomplished—especially when the organization has several objectives that it wishes to achieve? We then provide an introduction to a numerical analysis of the actions of powerful—and less-powerful—stakeholders as they react to particular scenarios in order to secure their own objectives against an unfolding future. Both approaches to quantification give us clear insights into what otherwise would be very complex situations.
George Cairns, George Wright
6. The Backwards Logic Method of Constructing Extreme Scenarios and Considering Local Agency in Branching Scenarios
Abstract
Our focus, up to this point, has been on using the intuitive logics method of scenario development as the sole way of constructing our set of scenarios. Recall that the steps include brainstorming the generation of critical uncertainties and predetermined driving forces that will have varying degrees of impact on the focal issue—often the viability of the focal organization. Recall, also, that the two scenario dimensions are selected from those cluster headings that are judged, by scenario team members, to be situated in the high-impact low-predictability quadrant of the impact/uncertainty matrix.
George Cairns, George Wright
7. Advanced Methods in Scenario Development: Uncovering Causality and Using the Delphi Method
Abstract
Our approach to scenario development has been focused on identifying causal linkages between driving forces—such that unfolding futures can be described in a persuasive way. As such our intuitive logics scenario development method results in four causally-identified futures. Note that our focus is on prediction—but prediction within each scenario, based on the causal logic of how a particular scenario unfolds from the present to the future. Emphasis within the workshop based scenario development process is, simply, on identifying ‘cause’. However, cause, in practice, is left undefined and, as such, workshop participants often use the proffered ‘arrows of influence’ in an unsophisticated, simplistic way, i.e., loosely and without specific direction by the workshop facilitator.
George Cairns, George Wright
8. Creating Robust Strategies and Robust Organizations
Abstract
So far, we have demonstrated how to develop scenarios that describe a range of futures. But, as we have discussed, sometimes the unexpected can happen. Consider the 9/11 attacks on the US homeland. With hindsight, these attacks and the methods used to achieve them seem predictable. Airliner cockpits were, then, relatively insecure and easy-to-access by motivated individuals posing as passengers who, once inside the cockpit had the flying experience necessary to enable piloting of the airliner to a target destination—the Twin Towers, the Pentagon and another unreached target. But US-based newspapers and magazines were mute about such a possibility before its terrible occurrence, this despite numerous precursor signals throughout the 1990s, including Al Qaeda’s attacks on US Embassies in Africa, its thwarted plan to blow up multiple aircraft in flight over the Pacific, and the previous failed attempt to bomb the World Trade Center.
George Cairns, George Wright
9. Diagnosing Organizational Receptiveness
Abstract
Until now, we have documented our innovations to the scenario method in a rational, step-by-step way—much like following a recipe in a cook book. A methodology is chosen and then applied in a straightforward way to engage an organization’s key decision makers in thinking deeply about the future. In reality, organizational life is more complex and a scenario-based intervention that seems, on the face of it, to be uncontroversial and straightforward may not be so.
George Cairns, George Wright
10. Documenting Lessons Learned from Case Study Projects
Abstract
In this chapter, we present detail on a range of scenario projects that we have been involved with; individually, together and with others; over several decades. Our focus is not on giving the full detail of individual projects or complete narratives of particular scenarios, but on illustrating important aspects of the scenario development process and, also, the pitfalls and problems that can occur in practice—complete with guidelines for how to overcome these. Issues that we will detail include:
1.
Detailed design of the scenario intervention
(a)
Deciding on the size and composition of the scenario development team
 
(b)
Dealing with time-poor participants
 
(c)
Incorporating desk-based research
 
(d)
Dealing with the host organization’s leaders
 
(e)
Gauging the number of facilitators to include in the scenario development process
 
 
2.
Managing the scenario intervention
(a)
Dealing with differences in opinion amongst participants, e.g., in the placing of cluster headings on the Impact-Predictability Matrix
 
(b)
Addressing issues of power, e.g., facilitation in the face of a dominant hierarchy
 
(c)
Allowing for the incubation of strategic responses to the insights offered by the scenarios
 
(d)
Dealing with secrecy issues as strategic responses are developed
 
 
3.
Organizing multi-organizational scenario projects
(a)
Addressing multiple missions and priorities
 
(b)
The role of Delphi inquiry in setting a shared agenda
 
 
George Cairns, George Wright
11. Evaluating the Effectiveness of Scenario Interventions Within Organizations
Abstract
In this book, we have presented a range of scenario methods, along with related methods of inquiry such as Delphi and decision analysis. In the previous chapter, we have outlined a range of case study examples of these various methods, across a range of organizations and over time scales ranging from 24 hours to many months. In this final chapter, we will summarize the key strengths of each of the methods and outline criteria by which you might select it for your own inquiry. We will also outline what we see as the limitations of each method, pointing to alternative approaches to address these. First, let us summarize the reasons why we see scenario thinking and scenario analysis as essential tools for strategic analysis and decision making for the future.
George Cairns, George Wright
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
Scenario Thinking
Authors
Prof. George Cairns
Prof. George Wright
Copyright Year
2018
Electronic ISBN
978-3-319-49067-0
Print ISBN
978-3-319-49066-3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0