Spatial-Temporal Variation and Future Changing Trend of NDVI in the Pearl River Basin from 1982 to 2015

Based on the GIMMS NDVI3g data from 1982 to 2015, this paper uses trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis methods to explore the spatial- temporal variation and future trends of NDVI in the Pearl River Basin, in order to provide basis for the improvement of ecological problems in the area. The results show that: (1) In terms of time, the NDVI of the Pearl River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend as a whole from 1982 to 2015, and it was extremely significant (P < 0.01); (2) In terms of space, the vegetation coverage was generally better in 34 years; the low and medium vegetation coverage areas (NDVI < 0.6) only accounted for 2.78% of the study area, which were concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region in the lower reaches of the Pearl River Basin; (3) In the trend analysis, NDVI showed an increasing trend in 34 years, and it accounted for 81.44% of the study area, mainly distributed in the upper reaches of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the middle reaches of the area; (4) In the future trend, the area with H > 0.75 accounts for 51.71%, indicating that the vegetation coverage will continue to increase in the future.