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2019 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

3. STEAM Approaches to Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Social-Political Conflict

Authors : Francis Ludlow, Charles Travis

Published in: The STEAM Revolution

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Climate history and historical climatology are closely evolving fields that aim (1) to reconstruct past climatic conditions and (2) examine the societal impacts of climatic changes. Such research can be characterized as a multi-disciplinary STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, Humanities and Mathematics) frontier that thrives under multidisciplinary collaboration. This chapter presents two case studies pertaining to each aim, linking palaeoenvironmental data from ice-cores and tree-rings with climatic and societal information preserved by the long Irish tradition of annalistic record keeping between the fifth or sixth to seventeenth centuries. The product of this recording survives today in texts known collectively as the “Irish Annals”, which provide detailed time series of extreme weather experienced in Ireland. The first case study revisits work that employs the Irish medieval record of severe cold weather together with Greenland ice core sulphate records to reveal a persistent winter-season climatic impact from explosive volcanism at Ireland’s climatically sensitive northeast Atlantic location. This result complements evidence of spring-summer (i.e., growing season) volcanic climatic impacts identified from tree-rings, and furthers our understanding of the potential impacts of the next big eruption or of geoengineering implemented via the stratospheric injection of sulphur dioxide. The second case study compares Irish annalistic evidence of violence to evidence of drought gleaned from Irish oak tree-ring growth widths. This exercise reveals suggestive linkages between extreme weather and violence, operating most obviously (but likely not solely) via the pressures of scarcity induced resource competition. This comparison also shows that medieval Irish society was not a passive victim of extreme weather, with a range of coping strategies available to restore order. Such knowledge is critical at a time when an increased risk of conflict arising from anthropogenic climatic change is regarded by many scholars and policymakers as a key security issue. Suggestions that human-induced climate change may act to catalyze contemporary or future violence and conflict remain controversial, however, with data shortages and the complexity of societal “pathways” that may connect climate to conflict presenting major research barriers. STEAM approaches that combine different methodologies and evidentiary bases to facilitate the examination of multiple historical climate parameters and a broad range of conflict typologies are thus essential to identifying the range of possible correlations between climate, violence, and conflict, and to resolving the complex pathways underlying observed correlations. Both case studies presented here illustrate how multidisciplinary STEAM approaches, well represented by climate history and historical climatology, can meaningfully inform contemporary debates by revealing how humanity has been influenced by past environments.

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Footnotes
1
John Rutty, 1770. A chronological history of the weather and seasons, and of the prevailing diseases in Dublin: with the various periods, successions and revolutions, during the space of 40 years: with a comparative view of the difference of the Irish climate and diseases and those of England and other countries. London: Roberts and Roberts.
 
2
Portions of text are adapted here from Ludlow (2012), with permission of the publisher, Geography Publications.
 
3
The text of this manuscript variously employs additional chronological notation for different years. The seminal work of McCarthy (2005, 2008) and citations provided therein provide a full treatment of this aspect of the Annals of Ulster and other extant medieval chronicles from Ireland.
 
4
The Anno Domini date provided by the manuscript identifies this year as 855, but is identifiable as the year 856 when applying the chronological corrections of McCarthy (2005). Despite being noted in 856, the event itself is likely however to have begun in the 855 (i.e., the 855/856 winter season) based upon the description of the cold event’s duration in the text.
 
5
Translated quotations from the various Irish annalistic texts are, unless otherwise stated, drawn from the online hypertext versions hosted by the Corpus of Electronic Texts (CELT) website, at www.​ucc.​ie/​celt (accessed 30 November 2017). See the citations associated with each hypertext for the original editors and translators. Dates cited from the Irish Annals are given in the Julian Calender, and always employ the chronological corrections of McCarthy (2005).
 
6
A threshold of at least 55.16ppb SO4 was applied, as per methods detailed in Ludlow et al. (2013), to identify ice-core SO4 samples likely indicative of the occurrence of explosive volcanism.
 
7
Seventy “cold events” were identified in total by Ludlow et al. (2013), but only 69 were included in their analysis of the correspondence of these events to volcanic signals identifiable from the GISP2 ice core, because of a gap in ice-core coverage (due to core damage) for a period encompassing the cold event dated to 586. Of the 70 cold events, 65 are identified from the evidence of the Irish Annals themselves, with the remainder identified from a range of other historical sources that supplement the Irish Annals as their coverage declines into the mid-seventeenth century. The section on the assessment of the reliability of documentary climatic data is thus specific to the evidence of the Irish Annals and the 65 events reliable events identified therefrom. See Ludlow et al. (2013) for full details.
 
8
See the Corpus of Electronic Texts (CELT) website, at www.​ucc.​ie/​celt
 
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Metadata
Title
STEAM Approaches to Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Social-Political Conflict
Authors
Francis Ludlow
Charles Travis
Copyright Year
2019
Book
The STEAM Revolution

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-89817-9

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-89818-6

Copyright Year: 2019

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-89818-6_3