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2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

7. Technological Development—Necessary but not Sufficient

Author : Jan Emblemsvåg

Published in: Reengineering Capitalism

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Economic studies estimate that technological change has contributed over half of the growth in economic output since the Great Depression and 17 percent or more in the growth of productivity since 1973. Yet, at the same time Nobel Laureate Robert Solow identified what later became called the “Solow paradox” as he once quipped that “you can see the computer-age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” The paradox has been defined as the “discrepancy between measures of investment in information technology and measures of output at the national level,” but its causes are still disputed. Some argue that recent innovations in the digital world are basically less impressive than they seem and certainly not sufficient to offset the effects of demographic change, inequality, and indebtedness, whereas others claim that it is simply a matter of time because there is significant time lag between technological progress and improvements in productivity.

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According to Christensen, C. M. and D. van Bever (2014). “The Capitalist's Dilemma.” Harvard Business Review 92(6): pp. 60–68.

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The definition is from Office of Technology Assessment (1995). Innovation and Commercialization of Emerging Technology, OTA-BP-ITC-165. Washington, DC, U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Government Printing Office. p. 96.

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See Capozzi, M. M., B. Gregg and A. How (2010). McKinsey Global Survey results: Innovation and Commercialization, 2010. Boston and Los Angeles, McKinsey & Company. p. 8.

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According to Hurwitz, S. (2011). Beyond R&D: Canada's Commercialization Challenge and How to Meet It. Boston, MA, Choate, Hall & Stewart LLP. p. 18.

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According to the research of Furman, J. L., M. E. Porter and S. Stern (2002). “The determinants of national innovative capacity.” Research Policy 31(6): pp. 899–933.

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According to Kortum, S. and J. Lerner (2000). “Assessing the Contribution of Venture Capital to Innovation.” RAND Journal of Economics 31(4): pp. 674–692.

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According to Kortum, S. and J. Lerner (2000). “Assessing the Contribution of Venture Capital to Innovation.” RAND Journal of Economics 31(4): pp. 674–692.

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An excellent study on the difficulties of using patent statistics is Griliches, Z. (1990). “Patent statistics as economic indicators: a survey.” Journal of Economic Literature XXVIII(December): pp. 1661–1707.

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According to Trajtenberg, M. (1990). “A Penny for Your Quotes: Patent Citations and the Value of Innovations.” RAND Journal of Economics 21(1): pp. 172–187.

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According to Kotha, R., P. H. Kim and O. Alexy (2014). “Turn Your Science into a Business.” Harvard Business Review 92(11): pp. 106–114.

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As shown by Kotha, R., P. H. Kim and O. Alexy (2014). “Turn Your Science into a Business.” Harvard Business Review 92(11): pp. 106–114.

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See Griliches, Z. (1990). “Patent statistics as economic indicators: a survey.” Journal of Economic Literature XXVIII(December): pp. 1661–1707.

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According to Freeman, C. and L. Soete (1997). The Economics of Industrial Innovation. Oxford, Routledge. p. 470.

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See Allas, T. (2014). Insights from international benchmarking of the UK science and innovation system. London, Department for Business Innovation & Skills. p. 223.

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According to Hurwitz, S. (2011). Beyond R&D: Canada’s Commercialization Challenge and How to Meet It. Boston, MA, Choate, Hall & Stewart LLP. p. 18.

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According to Hurwitz, S. (2011). Beyond R&D: Canada’s Commercialization Challenge and How to Meet It. Boston, MA, Choate, Hall & Stewart LLP. p. 18.

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According to West, J. (2013). Increasing Innovation Through Government Policy. Sydney, Australian Innovation Research Centre. p. 26.

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See Christensen, C. M. and M. E. Raynor (2003). The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth. Boston, MA, Harvard Business School Press. p. 301.

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According to Abramowitz, M. (1986). “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind.” The Journal of Economic History 46(2): pp. 385–406.

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According to Ferguson, C. H. and C. R. Morris (1993). Computer Wars: How the West Can Win in a Post-IBM World. New York, Times Books. p. 288.

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According to Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations. London, The Free Press. p. 551.

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According to CATAAlliance (2011). Executive Summary: Beyond R&D—Getting Economic Value through Effective Commcercialization of Innovations: Findings and Consultions from 2011 CATA Pan-Canadian Industry Study of Commercialization of Innovations. Ottawa, ON, Canadian Advanced Technology Alliance (CATA). p. 13.

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See Hurwitz, S. (2011). Beyond R&D: Canada's Commercialization Challenge and How to Meet It. Boston, MA, Choate, Hall & Stewart LLP. p. 18.

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See Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations. London, The Free Press. p. 551.

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According to Jones, M. E. and G. Sutherland (1999). Implementing Turnbull: A Boardroom Briefing. City of London, The Center for Business Performance, The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW). p. 34.

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As reported by Backlund, F. and J. Hannu (2002). “Can we make maintenance decisions on risk analysis results?” Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering 8(1): pp. 77–91.

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According to Bernstein, P. L. (1996). Against the Gods: the Remarkable Story of Risk. New York, John Wiley & Sons. p. 383.

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According to Honderich, T., Ed. (1995). The Oxford Companion to Philosophy. New York, Oxford University Press. p. 1009.

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According to Blikra, L. H., E. Anda, J. Høst and O. Longva (2006b). Åknes/Tafjord-prosjektet: Sannsynlighet og risiko knyttet til fjellskred og flodbølger fra Åknes og Hegguraksla. Trondheim, Norges Geologiske Undersøkelse. p. 20.

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According to Professor Bjørn Nilsen of The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in Trondheim, Norway, there is only a theoretical possibility that the movement of the rock slope will stop, see Røsjø, B. (2005). Norges vakreste trussel. GEO: pp. 18–23.

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These numbers are based on the demographic data for the counties involved, which are Stranda, Norddal, Stordal, and Ørskog.

156

The number of tourists is the maximum number of tourists in the peak season; however, these numbers are expected to increase as Geiranger has recently obtained status as World Heritage site by UNESCO.

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See, for example, Blikra, L. H., E. Anda, S. Belsby, K. Jogerud and Ø. Klempe (2006a). Åknes/Tafjord prosjektet: Statusrapport for Arbeidsgruppe 1 (Undersøking og overvaking). Stranda, Åknes/Tafjord-prosjektet. p. 57.

159

According to Aven, T., M. Boyesen, O. Njå, K. H. Olsen and K. Sandve (2004). Samfunnssikkerhet. Oslo, Universitetsforlaget. p. 296.

160

As prescribed by Emblemsvåg, J. (2005). “Business analytics: getting behind the numbers.” International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management 54(1): pp. 47–58.

161

For a detailed introduction to this, see Emblemsvåg, J. (2003). Life-Cycle Costing: Using Activity-Based Costing and Monte Carlo Methods to Manage Future Costs and Risks. Hoboken, NJ, John Wiley & Sons. p. 320.

162

Note that the complete modeling and results are presented in a book written for the Norwegian audience in Norwegian only, see Emblemsvåg, J. (2008). Flodbølger fra Åkneset. Før eller Senere—Tiltak eller Katastrofe? Oslo, Kolofon Forlag. p. 193.

163

This is described well in Emblemsvåg, J. (2011). Augmenting the risk management process. Risk Management Trends. G. Nota. Rijeka, Croatia, InTech: pp. 1–26.A.

164

According to Kunreuther, H., N. Novemsky and D. Kahneman (2001). “Making Low Probabilities Useful.” The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 23(2): pp. 103–120.

165

According to Acton, J. M. and M. Hibbs (2012). Why Fukushima was Preventable. Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. p. 44.

166

According to IAEA (2011). IAEA International Fact Finding Expert Mission of the Fukushima Daiichi NPP Accident Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Wien, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). p. 160.

167

Contrary to some media reporting there is not a proper sea wall at Fukushima Daiichi. There is a shallow breakwater around the plant, but it was apparently not designed to play any role in tsunami protection and is not regulated by NISA. Its role was simply to create a calm harbor for shipping, see Acton, J. M. and M. Hibbs (2012). Why Fukushima was Preventable. Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. p. 44.

168

See Acton, J. M. and M. Hibbs (2012). Why Fukushima was Preventable. Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. p. 44.

169

See IAEA (2011). IAEA International Fact Finding Expert Mission of the Fukushima Daiichi NPP Accident Following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Wien, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). p. 160.

170

According to Mohrbach, L., T. Linnemann, G. Schäfer and G. Vallana (2011). Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan on March 11, 2011 and Consequences for Fukushima and other Nuclear Power Plants. www.vgb.org/vgbmultimedia/News/Fukushimav15VGB.pdf:pp.

171

For a thorough discussion, see Kunreuther, H., N. Novemsky and D. Kahneman (2001). “Making Low Probabilities Useful.” The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 23(2): pp. 103–120.

172

See Slovic, P. (1987). “Perception of Risk.” Science 236(4799): pp. 280–285.

173

See:

Raup, D. M. and J. J. Sepkoski Jr. (1982). “Mass extinctions in the marine fossil record.” Science 215(4539): pp. 1501–1503.
Raup, D. M. (1986). “Biological extinction in earth history.” Science 231(4745): pp. 1528–1533.

174

See Glavin, T. (2007). The Sixth Extinction: Journeys Among the Lost and Left Behind. New York, Thomas Dunne Books. p. 318.

175

See Weber, M. (2001). The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. London, Routledge. p. 320.

176

See Taguchi, G., S. Chowdhury and Y. Wu (2005). Taguchi’s Quality Engineering Handbook. Hoboken, NJ, John Wiley & Sons. p. 1662.

177

See, for example,

Liker, J. K. (2004). The Toyota Way: 14 Management Principles from the World's Greatest Manufacturer New York, McGraw-Hill Professional. p. 350.
Womack, J. P., D. T. Jones and D. Roos (1990). The machine that changed the world. New York, Rawson Associates. p. 323.

178

See, for example, Hutschins, D. (2000). “The power of Six Sigma in practice.” Measuring Business Excellence 4(2): pp. 26–33.

179

See Midler, P. (2011). Poorly Made in China: An Insider's Account of the China Production Game. Hoboken, NJ, John Wiley & Sons. p. 272.

Title: Technological Development—Necessary but not Sufficient
Author: Jan Emblemsvåg
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Reengineering Capitalism
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-19688-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-19689-3

Copyright Year: 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19689-3_7

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