I see it is a good thing for husband and wife to have the occasional disagreement, since they thereby come to learn things about one another.Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1809/1978)
Introduction
Learning and Divorce
A Model of Learning and Divorce
Informative Signals
Empirical Application
Data
Danish Population | Full DALSC | Estimation Sample |
p Value Population vs. Full |
p Value Population vs. Sample |
p Value Full vs. Sample | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Older Siblings | .566 | .618 | .580 | .001 | .001 | .001 |
(.496) | (.486) | (.494) | ||||
In Relationship as of January 1, 1995 | .854 | .926 | .968 | .001 | .001 | .001 |
(.353) | (.261) | (.176) | ||||
Birth Weight (kg) | 3.484a
| 3.510c
| 3.520f
| .001 | .001 | ns |
(0.598) | (0.605) | (0.603) | ||||
Mother’s Age at Birth | 28.250 | 30.173d
| 29.315 | .001 | .001 | .001 |
(4.688) | (4.674) | (4.552) | ||||
Mother’s Years of Education | 12.312b
| 12.491e
| 12.634g
| .001 | .001 | .001 |
(2.272) | (2.200) | (2.157) | ||||
Infantile Colic | .133 | .146 | ns | |||
(.340) | (.353) | |||||
Smoking When Child Is 6 Months | .277 | .294 | ns | |||
(.448) | (.456) | |||||
Relationship Length in Years | 7.345 | |||||
(4.163) | ||||||
N
| 67,657 | 5,666 | 4,920 |
Infantile Colic as an Informative Signal
Coefficient | |
---|---|
Smoking | 0.026* |
(0.012) | |
Older Siblings | –0.035** |
(0.012) | |
log(Relationship Length) | 0.017 |
(0.009) | |
Birth Weight (kg) | –0.016 |
(0.009) | |
Mother’s Age at Birth | –0.002 |
(0.001) | |
Mother’s Years of Education | –0.002 |
(0.003) | |
Constant | 3.368 |
(2.627) | |
R
2
| .004 |
F Value | 3.18** |
N
| 4,737 |
Predicting Divorce and Dissolution
Findings
1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colic | –0.072 (0.040) | –0.125** (0.047) | –0.152** (0.050) | –0.151** (0.053) | –0.148** (0.056) | –0.171** (0.057) | –0.170** (0.057) | –0.122* (0.059) | –0.125* (.059) | –0.086 (0.060) | –0.076 (0.060) |
log(Relationship Length) | 0.051*** (0.007) | 0.079*** (0.008) | 0.083*** (0.008) | 0.101*** (0.009) | 0.111*** (0.010) | 0.125*** (0.0104) | 0.130*** (0.011) | 0.138*** (0.011) | 0.134*** (0.011) | 0.138*** (.012) | 0.141*** (0.011) |
Colic × log(Relationship Length) | 0.032 (0.019) | 0.051* (.022) | 0.058* (0.023) | 0.056* (0.025) | 0.055* (0.026) | 0.063* 0.027 | 0.066* (0.027) | 0.039 (0.028) | 0.051 (0.028) | 0.038 (0.028) | 0.034 (0.029) |
Smoking | –0.053*** (0.009) | –0.081*** (0.011) | –0.091*** (0.011) | –0.104*** (0.013) | –0.113*** (0.014) | –0.122*** (0.014) | –0.134*** (0.015) | –0.128*** (0.015) | –0.122*** (0.015) | –0.114*** (0.016) | –0.124*** (0.016) |
Colic × Smoking | 0.000 (0.023) | 0.022 (0.027) | 0.019 (0.031) | 0.060 (0.032) | 0.045 (0.035) | 0.083* (0.035) | 0.085* (0.036) | 0.104** (0.037) | 0.075* 0.038 | 0.050 (0.039) | 0.049 (0.040) |
Siblings | –0.015* (0.008) | –0.022* (0.009) | –0.012 (0.010) | –0.020 (0.011) | –0.036** (0.012) | –0.046*** (0.012) | –0.044*** (0.012) | –0.040** (0.013) | –0.034* (0.013) | –0.038** (0.014) | –0.035* (0.014) |
Constant | 0.883*** (0.013) | 0.815*** (0.015) | 0.783*** (0.016) | 0.731*** (0.018) | 0.697*** (0.019) | 0.656*** (0.020) | 0.630*** (0.020) | 0.581*** (0.021) | 0.563*** 0.022 | 0.533*** (0.022) | 0.508*** (0.022) |
R
2
| .041 | .062 | .062 | .066 | .066 | .070 | .073 | .066 | .060 | .057 | .059 |
N
| 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 |
Robustness of the Signal
1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colic | –0.081 | –0.153* | –0.179* | –0.167* | –0.201** | –0.235** | –0.187* | –0.137 | –0.126 | –0.115 | –0.108 |
(0.056) | (0.063) | (0.070) | (0.075) | (0.077) | (0.077) | (0.078) | (0.082) | (0.083) | (0.083) | (0.083) | |
log(Relationship Length) | 0.030** | 0.059*** | 0.070*** | 0.091*** | 0.094*** | 0.108*** | 0.122*** | 0.131*** | 0.128*** | 0.129*** | 0.137*** |
(0.010) | (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.014) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.017) | (0.017) | (0.017) | |
Colic × log(Relationship Length) | 0.037 | 0.072* | 0.074* | 0.068 | 0.070 | 0.097* | 0.078 | 0.040 | 0.048 | 0.053 | 0.048 |
(0.031) | (0.034) | (0.037) | (0.040) | (0.041) | (0.041) | (0.041) | (0.044) | (0.045) | (0.045) | (0.045) | |
Smoking | –0.070*** | 0.121*** | –0.125*** | –0.152*** | –0.170*** | –0.172*** | –0.172*** | –0.181*** | –0.163*** | –0.154*** | –0.168*** |
(0.015) | (0.019) | (0.020) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.025) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.026) | |
Colic × Smoking | –0.001 | 0.009 | 0.020 | 0.068 | 0.108 | 0.133* | 0.115* | 0.171* | 0.116 | 0.069 | 0.070 |
(0.041) | (0.047) | (0.052) | (0.054) | (0.057) | (0.056) | (0.057) | (0.059) | (0.061) | (0.062) | (0.063) | |
Constant | 0.918*** | 0.855*** | 0.811*** | 0.760*** | 0.741*** | 0.695*** | 0.649*** | 0.606*** | 0.581*** | 0.558*** | 0.527*** |
(0.017) | (0.021) | (0.023) | (0.025) | (0.026) | (0.028) | (0.029) | (0.030) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.031) | |
R
2
| .032 | .068 | .064 | .074 | .077 | .081 | .082 | .077 | .070 | .063 | .070 |
N
| 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 | 2,067 |
Testing Alternative Explanations
1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colic | 0.015 | –0.012 | –0.012 | 0.032 | –0.029 | –0.010 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.028 | –0.027 |
(0.089) | (0.095) | (0.103) | (0.099) | (0.102) | (0.103) | (0.107) | (0.112) | (0.117) | (0.109) | |
In Relationship | 0.139*** | 0.226*** | 0.290*** | 0.351*** | 0.330*** | 0.285*** | 0.260*** | 0.263*** | 0.230*** | 0.222*** |
(0.035) | (0.036) | (0.034) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.029) | (0.030) | (0.029) | |
Colic × In Relationship | 0.046 | 0.072 | –0.008 | –0.035 | 0.004 | 0.063 | 0.046 | 0.006 | 0.000 | –0.045 |
(0.083) | (0.081) | (0.085) | (0.079) | (0.080) | (0.078) | (0.077) | (0.077) | (0.080) | (0.076) | |
log(Relationship Length) | 0.099*** | 0.086*** | 0.048** | 0.029 | 0.005 | 0.002 | –0.016 | –0.027 | –0.059** | –0.088*** |
(0.017) | (0.018) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.020) | (0.021) | (0.021) | (0.022) | (0.022) | |
Colic × log(Relationship Length) | –0.047 | –0.052 | –0.007 | –0.036 | –0.023 | –0.052 | –0.048 | –0.028 | –0.039 | 0.004 |
(0.043) | (0.046) | (0.048) | (0.050) | (0.051) | (0.052) | (0.053) | (0.052) | (0.055) | (0.054) | |
Smoking | 0.026 | –0.023 | –0.044 | –0.056* | –0.074** | –0.087*** | –0.110*** | –0.121*** | –0.131*** | –0.124*** |
(0.021) | (0.023) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.025) | (0.025) | (0.026) | (0.027) | (0.027) | (0.028) | |
Colic × Smoking | 0.078 | 0.084 | 0.030 | 0.014 | 0.023 | –0.015 | –0.040 | –0.042 | –0.016 | –0.023 |
(0.058) | (0.061) | (0.062) | (0.061) | (0.060) | (0.062) | (0.063) | (0.065) | (0.069) | (0.069) | |
Siblings | 1.165*** | 0.925*** | 0.768*** | 0.684*** | 0.617*** | 0.537*** | 0.469*** | 0.403*** | 0.329*** | 0.235*** |
(0.017) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.021) | (0.021) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.025) | |
Constant | 0.931*** | 1.175*** | 1.399*** | 1.501*** | 1.644*** | 1.768*** | 1.879*** | 1.930*** | 2.043*** | 2.121*** |
(0.039) | (0.040) | (0.040) | (0.039) | (0.040) | (0.041) | (0.042) | (0.042) | (0.042) | (0.043) | |
R
2
| .508 | .364 | .274 | .234 | .192 | .146 | .111 | .088 | .058 | .037 |
N
| 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 | 4,920 |
Quantifying Infantile Colic as an Informative Signal
Estimated Time Until Divorce (years) | |
---|---|
Colic | –1.515** |
(0.559) | |
log(Relationship Length) | 0.626*** |
(0.126) | |
Colic × log(Relationship Length) | 0.464 |
(0.299) | |
Smoking | –0.866*** |
(0.165) | |
Colic × Smoking | 0.586 |
(0.424) | |
Siblings | 0.030 |
(0.159) | |
Constant | 4.807*** |
(0.224) | |
R
2
| .051 |
F Value | 15.78*** |
N
| 1,734 |