1 Introduction
1.1 Contact heterogeneity in infectious disease epidemiology
1.2 Data
1.3 Preferential attachment and power laws in empirical data
1.4 Testing preferential attachment directly
2 Methods
2.1 Social Contact Survey data
2.2 Generalised preferential attachment
2.3 Phase-type holding times
2.4 Numerically efficient model solution
2.5 Model likelihood, fitting and selection
3 Results and discussion
(Phases, PA)
|
No. Params
|
ΔAIC
|
ΔBIC
|
Diverge
|
---|---|---|---|---|
(1,No) | 1 | 2.2 × 103
| 2.1 × 103
| – |
(2,No) | 4 | 2.1 × 102
| 1.5 × 102
| – |
(3,No) | 8 | 1.2 × 102
| 83 | – |
(4,No) | 13 | 42 | 38 | – |
(5,No) | 19 | 23 | 58 | – |
(6,No) | 26 | 27 | 1.1 × 102
| – |
(1,Yes) | 2 | 1.9 × 102
| 1.1 × 102
| 3 |
(2,Yes) | 5 | 1.3 × 102
| 72 | 4 |
(3,Yes) | 9 | 31 |
\(\mathbf{[0]}\)
| 3 |
(4,Yes) | 14 | 11 | 14 | 3 |
(5,Yes) | 20 |
\(\mathbf{[0]}\)
| 42 | 3 |
(6,Yes) | 27 | 9 | 97 | 3 |