1 Introduction
2 Hypothesis development
2.1 Management forecast bias conditioned on the contemporaneous earnings surprise (H1)
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H1a: Managers issue bundled earnings forecasts that are optimistically biased when the contemporaneously released current earnings surprise is negative.
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H1b: Managers issue bundled earnings forecasts that are pessimistically biased when the contemporaneously released current earnings surprise is large and positive.
2.2 Cross-sectional variation based on managers’ constraints and incentives (H2)
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H2a: Managers with lower constraints and greater incentives have a greater tendency to optimistically bias their bundled forecasts when the contemporaneously released current earnings surprise is negative.
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H2b: Managers with lower constraints and greater incentives have a greater tendency to pessimistically bias their bundled forecasts when the contemporaneously released current earnings surprise is large and positive.
2.3 Investor reaction to bundled forecasts (H3)
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H3: Investors do not behave as if they identify the bias in bundled forecasts.
3 Research design and results
3.1 Research design for H1
3.2 Research design for H2
3.3 Research design for H3
3.4 Sample information and descriptive statistics
Panel A: Sample selection procedure | ||
Annual management earnings forecasts for fiscal years 2001–2019 issued by firms with PERMNO, GVKEY, IBES TICKER and at least one analyst following the firm | 49,885 | |
Less: | ||
Open ended or qualitative management earnings forecasts | (7,162) | |
Missing necessary control variable information | (13,164) | |
Management earnings forecasts for empirical tests | 29,559 | |
Panel B: Industry composition | ||
Two-Digit SIC Industry Sector | Number of MEF | % of MEF |
Agriculture (01–09) | – | 0.00% |
Mining (10–14) | 424 | 1.43% |
Construction (15–17) | 565 | 1.91% |
Manufacturing (20–39) | 12,488 | 42.25% |
Telecommunication, Transportation, Utilities (40–49) | 4,222 | 14.28% |
Wholesale (50–51) | 936 | 3.17% |
Retailing (52–59) | 3,950 | 13.36% |
Financial (60–69) | 1,908 | 6.45% |
Services (70–88) | 5,010 | 16.95% |
Other | 56 | 0.19% |
Total | 29,559 | 100.00% |
Panel C: Management earnings forecasts (MEF) by fiscal quarter of bundled earnings announcement | ||
Fiscal quarter of earnings announcement | Number of MEF | % of MEF |
1 | 7,244 | 25% |
2 | 6,990 | 24% |
3 | 7,689 | 26% |
4 | 7,636 | 26% |
Total | 29,559 | 100.00% |
Panel D: Frequency of MEF issued per firm-year | ||
MEF per year | Number of firm-years | % of firm-years |
1 | 3,218 | 28.08% |
2 | 2,494 | 21.76% |
3 | 2,308 | 20.14% |
4 | 2,970 | 25.91% |
5 | 377 | 3.29% |
6 or more | 95 | 0.83% |
Total | 11,462 | 100.00% |
Panel A: Full Sample Descriptive Statistics | |||||||||
Variable | N | Mean | Q1 | Median | Q3 | Std Dev | Table where variable is used | ||
Primary dependent variables: | |||||||||
MEF_Bias_ub | 29,559 | 0.43 | −0.17 | 0.02 | 0.39 | 1.93 | 3–5, 7B, 8, 9 | ||
MEF_Bias_mp | 29,559 | 0.22 | −0.30 | −0.06 | 0.21 | 1.77 | 3, 7B, 9 | ||
MEF_Bias_range | 29,559 | 0.21 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.52 | 3, 7B, 9 | ||
AEF_Bias(pre) | 29,559 | 0.11 | −0.51 | −0.18 | 0.23 | 1.86 | 5A | ||
AEF_Bias(post) | 29,559 | 0.21 | −0.26 | −0.04 | 0.20 | 1.63 | 5A, 5B | ||
Primary independent variables: | |||||||||
LargeBeatExpectations | 29,559 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
MissedExpectations | 29,559 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
Other variables: | |||||||||
AccrualQuality | 29,559 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | 0.02 | 3–5, 7B, 8–10 | ||
Afollow | 29,559 | 13.56 | 8.00 | 13.00 | 18.00 | 7.01 | 3–5, 7A, 8–10 | ||
BundledAtLastEA | 194,012 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.48 | 7A | ||
BundledForecast | 194,012 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.48 | 7A | ||
BHAR (−1, +1) | 28,324 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 6A - C | ||
BHAR (+2, +10) | 28,671 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 6D | ||
BHAR (+2, +20) | 28,671 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 6D | ||
BHAR (+2, +60) | 28,671 | 0.00 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 6D | ||
BHAR (+2, MEF Outcome) | 28,671 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 6D | ||
CareerConcerns | 19,022 | 0.06 | −0.76 | −0.14 | 0.46 | 1.28 | 4D | ||
Concentration | 29,559 | 0.52 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.20 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
ConferenceCall | 194,012 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 7A | ||
Dispersion | 29,559 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
d_sgrowth | 28,324 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 6 | ||
EarnSurp | 28,324 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 6A - C | ||
EarnVol | 29,559 | 0.53 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
ExtremeEarnSurp | 28,324 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 6 | ||
ForecastedForEA | 194,012 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 7A | ||
FwdWords_Pct | 7,012 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 10B | ||
FwdWords_Tone | 7,012 | −0.27 | −0.38 | −0.25 | −0.14 | 0.19 | 10B | ||
FwdWords_Uncertainty | 7,012 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 10B | ||
Horizon | 29,559 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 0.66 | 0.87 | 0.30 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
InstOwn | 29,559 | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.92 | 0.20 | 3–5, 6C, 7–10 | ||
Leverage | 28,324 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 6 | ||
LitRisk | 29,559 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
Loss | 29,559 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
MB | 29,559 | 1.41 | 1.01 | 1.31 | 1.66 | 0.56 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
MBE | 194,012 | 0.69 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 7A | ||
Non-GAAP Exclusions | 46,419 | 1.30 | 0.07 | 0.32 | 0.93 | 5.58 | 10A | ||
Persistence | 28,324 | 0.30 | −0.13 | 0.27 | 0.76 | 0.94 | 6 | ||
PriorStockReturn | 194,012 | 0.04 | −0.08 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 7A | ||
R&D | 29,559 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 3–5, 7–10 | ||
Size | 29,559 | 8.34 | 7.25 | 8.29 | 9.41 | 1.53 | 3–10 | ||
SpecialItems | 28,324 | −0.02 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 6A - C | ||
VolRet | 28,324 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 6A – C | ||
Panel B: Descriptive Statistics by Current Earnings News | |||||||||
Variable | Missed Expectations | Met Expectations | Large Beat Expectations | ||||||
N | Mean | Median | N | Mean | Median | N | Mean | Median | |
Primary dependent variables | |||||||||
MEF_Bias_ub | 6,254 | 1.01 | 0.23 | 9,843 | 0.47 | 0.04 | 13,462 | 0.14 | −0.05 |
MEF_Bias_mp | 6,254 | 0.72 | 0.06 | 9,843 | 0.29 | −0.02 | 13,462 | −0.06 | −0.14 |
MEF_Bias_range | 6,254 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 9,843 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 13,462 | −0.02 | −0.05 |
AEF_Bias(pre) | 6,254 | 0.37 | −0.23 | 9,843 | 0.19 | −0.16 | 13,462 | −0.07 | −0.18 |
AEF_Bias(post) | 6,254 | 0.63 | 0.05 | 9,843 | 0.27 | −0.01 | 13,462 | −0.04 | −0.10 |
Primary independent variables: | |||||||||
LargeBeatExpectations | 6,254 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9,843 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13,462 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
MissedExpectations | 6,254 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9,843 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13,462 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Panel C: Frequency of Earnings Surprise Categories Over Time | |||||||||
MissedExpectationst | MetExpectationst | LargeBeatExpectationst | |||||||
MissedExpectationst-1 | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | ||||||
MetExpectationst-1 | 6.3% | 15.9% | 10.8% | ||||||
LargeBeatExpectationst-1 | 7.4% | 10.5% | 27.9% | ||||||
Panel D: Sign of Management Forecast Bias Conditional on Earnings Surprise Category | |||||||||
MissedExpectationst | MetExpectationst | LargeBeatExpectationst | |||||||
MEF_Bias_ub > 0 | 70.6% | 55.3% | 38.6% | ||||||
MEF_Bias_ub < 0 | 26.1% | 39.5% | 57.7% | ||||||
MEF_Bias_ub = 0 | 3.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | ||||||
Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
4 Results
4.1 Tests of H1a and H1b—Current earnings surprise and management forecast bias
[1] | [2] | [3] | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction | MEF_Bias_ub | MEF_Bias_mp | MEF_Bias_range | |
MissedExpectations | + (H1a) | 0.382*** | 0.364*** | 0.304*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | - (H1b) | −0.464*** | −0.427*** | −0.364*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
Dispersion | + | 0.141*** | 0.126*** | 0.117*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
Horizon | + | 0.765*** | 0.629*** | 0.567*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
Afollow | ? | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.007* |
(0.171) | (0.108) | (0.098) | ||
Loss | + | 0.133 | −0.016 | 0.009 |
(0.135) | (0.461) | (0.451) | ||
Concentration | + | 0.065 | −0.016 | −0.005 |
(0.411) | (0.482) | (0.475) | ||
LitRisk | ? | 2.484** | 1.653** | 1.276* |
(0.031) | (0.045) | (0.074) | ||
AccrualQuality | ? | 1.435 | 1.119 | 0.434 |
(0.444) | (0.516) | (0.787) | ||
R&D | ? | 1.825** | 1.649** | 1.455** |
(0.022) | (0.016) | (0.035) | ||
Size | – | −0.275*** | −0.200*** | −0.170*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
MB | – | −0.333*** | −0.262*** | −0.254*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
EarnVol | + | 1.215*** | 0.914*** | 0.802*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
InstOwn | – | −0.884*** | −0.673*** | −0.566*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
Observations | 29,559 | 29,559 | 29,559 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.183 | 0.136 | 0.131 | |
Fixed Effects | Industry & Year | Industry & Year | Industry & Year |
4.2 Tests of H2a and H2b—Cross-sectional tests on managers’ constraints and incentives
Dependent Variable: MEF_Bias_ub | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: Cross-Section on Analyst Following | ||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | ||
Prediction | Low Follow | High Follow | Difference | |
MissedExpectations | + (H2a) | 0.708*** | 0.073 | 0.635*** |
(0.000) | (0.240) | (0.000) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | - (H2b) | −0.559*** | −0.275*** | −0.284*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.005) | ||
Observations | 8,303 | 7,172 | ||
Adjusted R-Squared | 0.195 | 0.230 | ||
Controls | Yes | Yes | ||
Fixed Effects | Industry and Year | Industry and Year | ||
Panel B: Cross-Section on Litigation Risk | ||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | ||
Prediction | Low LitRisk | High LitRisk | Difference | |
MissedExpectations | + (H2a) | 0.622*** | 0.419*** | 0.432** |
(0.000) | (0.002) | (0.048) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | - (H2b) | −0.530*** | −0.370*** | −0.170 |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.115) | ||
Observations | 7,392 | 7,389 | ||
Adjusted R-Squared | 0.216 | 0.179 | ||
Controls | Yes | Yes | ||
Fixed Effects | Industry and Year | Industry and Year | ||
Panel C: Cross- Section on Forecast Horizon | ||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | ||
Prediction | 2+ Qtrs Ahead | One Quarter Ahead | Difference | |
MissedExpectations | + (H2a) | 0.418*** | 0.294*** | 0.124** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.020) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | - (H2b) | −0.533*** | −0.211*** | −0.322*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.009) | ||
Observations | 22,939 | 6,620 | ||
Adjusted R-Squared | 0.199 | 0.136 | ||
Controls | Yes | Yes | ||
Fixed Effects | Industry and Year | Industry and Year | ||
Panel D: Cross-Section on Managers’ Career Concerns | ||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | ||
Prediction | High Career Concerns | Low Career Concerns | Difference | |
MissedExpectations | + (H2a) | 0.468*** | −0.028 | 0.496*** |
(0.001) | (0.731) | (0.004) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | - (H2b) | −0.600*** | −0.310*** | −0.290*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.007) | ||
Observations | 4,711 | 4,819 | ||
Adjusted R-Squared | 0.166 | 0.217 | ||
Controls | Yes | Yes | ||
Fixed Effects | Industry and Year | Industry and Year |
4.3 Test of H3—Investors’ response to bundled forecasts
Panel A: Abnormal Returns around Earnings Announcements with a Bundled Management Forecast | |||||||
Dependent Variable: BHAR (−1, +1) | |||||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | |||||
Prediction | Full Sample | Missed Expectations | Large Beat Expectations | ||||
EarnSurp | + | 12.003*** | 12.867*** | 7.420*** | |||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||||
MEF_News_contra | −/+/- | −0.015*** | 0.032*** | −0.032*** | |||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||||
EarnSurp*MEF_News_contra | – | −0.354** | −0.528 | −0.293** | |||
(0.031) | (0.110) | (0.029) | |||||
EarnSurp*MEF_News_contra*MEF_Bias_contra | ? (H3) | 0.083 | 0.057 | −0.412 | |||
(0.704) | (0.173) | (0.218) | |||||
MEF_Bias_contra | 0.014*** | −0.018 | 0.008*** | ||||
(0.000) | (0.135) | (0.000) | |||||
Size | 0.000 | 0.005*** | −0.004*** | ||||
(0.963) | (0.001) | (0.000) | |||||
MB | 0.000 | −0.006** | 0.002 | ||||
(0.645) | (0.021) | (0.206) | |||||
Leverage | −0.003 | 0.018* | −0.021*** | ||||
(0.547) | (0.090) | (0.001) | |||||
SpecialItems | 0.018* | 0.001 | 0.015 | ||||
(0.052) | (0.971) | (0.271) | |||||
ExtremeEarnSurp | 0.003 | −0.038*** | 0.039*** | ||||
(0.194) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||||
d_sgrowth | 0.011*** | 0.010*** | 0.011*** | ||||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||||
VolRet | 0.186 | 0.723** | 0.186 | ||||
(0.116) | (0.021) | (0.144) | |||||
Persistence | 0.001 | −0.002 | 0.001 | ||||
(0.130) | (0.189) | (0.146) | |||||
R&D | 0.011 | 0.253** | −0.153** | ||||
(0.776) | (0.012) | (0.041) | |||||
Afollow | −0.001 | −0.012*** | 0.001 | ||||
(0.294) | (0.000) | (0.612) | |||||
EarnSurp*Size | −0.140** | −0.077 | −0.057 | ||||
(0.013) | (0.293) | (0.512) | |||||
EarnSurp*MB | 0.170 | −0.306 | −0.014 | ||||
(0.132) | (0.115) | (0.915) | |||||
EarnSurp*Leverage | −0.139 | 0.384* | 0.017 | ||||
(0.472) | (0.061) | (0.970) | |||||
EarnSurp*SpecialItems | 0.285 | 0.318 | −1.256 | ||||
(0.544) | (0.457) | (0.416) | |||||
EarnSurp*ExtremeEarnSurp | −11.384*** | −11.157*** | −7.078*** | ||||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||||
EarnSurp*d_sgrowth | 0.048 | 0.052 | −0.286* | ||||
(0.640) | (0.591) | (0.074) | |||||
EarnSurp*VolRet | −3.013 | −3.089 | 12.237 | ||||
(0.253) | (0.315) | (0.133) | |||||
EarnSurp*Persistence | −0.046 | −0.081 | 0.105 | ||||
(0.460) | (0.178) | (0.407) | |||||
EarnSurp*R&D | −6.220** | 6.455 | −1.249 | ||||
(0.011) | (0.227) | (0.713) | |||||
EarnSurp*Afollow | 0.226** | −0.106 | 0.018 | ||||
(0.036) | (0.285) | (0.892) | |||||
Observations | 28,324 | 6,046 | 12,941 | ||||
Adjusted R-squared | 0.070 | 0.077 | 0.085 | ||||
Cluster | EA date | EA date | EA date | ||||
Fixed Effects | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | ||||
Panel B: Abnormal Returns around Earnings Announcements with a Bundled Management Forecast, Conditional on Managers’ Past Bias | |||||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | ||
High past bias | Low past bias | High past bias | Low past bias | High past bias | Low past bias | ||
Prediction | Full Sample | Full Sample | Missed Expectations | Missed Expectations | Large Beat Expectations | Large Beat Expectations | |
Earnsurp | + | 10.364*** | 18.407*** | 11.489*** | 17.790*** | 8.749*** | 14.569*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.056) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
MEF_News_contra | −/+/- | −0.017*** | −0.010*** | 0.038*** | 0.050*** | −0.027*** | −0.017*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
EarnSurp*MEF_News_contra | – | −1.425*** | −0.946* | −2.160** | 0.315 | −1.927*** | −3.308*** |
(0.000) | (0.096) | (0.029) | (0.395) | (0.001) | (0.000) | ||
EarnSurp*MEF_News_contra*MEF_Bias_contra | ? (H3) | 0.964*** | −0.123 | 2.006** | −0.757 | 2.057*** | 1.389* |
(0.006) | (0.875) | (0.036) | (0.513) | (0.006) | (0.088) | ||
Test of difference | 1.087* | 2.763** | 2.145 | ||||
(p-value) | (0.089) | (0.032) | (0.295) | ||||
Observations | 6,582 | 7,038 | 1,289 | 1,357 | 3,869 | 2,451 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.077 | 0.075 | 0.124 | 0.091 | 0.074 | 0.084 | |
Cluster | EA date | EA date | EA date | EA date | EA date | EA date | |
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Fixed Effects | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | |
Panel C: Abnormal Returns around Earnings Announcements with a Bundled Management Forecast, Conditional on Institutional Ownership | |||||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | ||
High IO | Low IO | High IO | Low IO | High IO | Low IO | ||
Prediction | Full Sample | Full Sample | Missed Expectations | Missed Expectations | Large Beat Expectations | Large Beat Expectations | |
Earnsurp | + | 12.466*** | 10.590 | 12.463*** | 15.535*** | 11.625*** | 6.157*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | ||
MEF_News_contra | −/± | −0.017*** | −0.012 | 0.037*** | 0.054*** | −0.027*** | −0.023*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
EarnSurp*MEF_News_contra | – | −0.350** | −0.449*** | −0.156 | 1.029 | −0.940* | −0.276 |
(0.015) | (0.006) | (0.270) | (0.131) | (0.066) | (0.211) | ||
EarnSurp*MEF_News_contra*MEF_Bias_contra | ? (H3) | 0.581* | 0.283 | 0.070 | −0.368 | 0.570 | −0.561 |
(0.079) | (0.135) | (0.381) | (0.692) | (0.201) | (0.228) | ||
Test of difference | 0.298* | 0.438 | 1.131* | ||||
(p-value) | (0.098) | (0.313) | (0.088) | ||||
Observations | 7,112 | 7,060 | 1,627 | 1,653 | 3,295 | 2,963 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.095 | 0.066 | 0.119 | 0.104 | 0.077 | 0.104 | |
Cluster | EA date | EA date | EA date | EA date | EA date | EA date | |
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Fixed Effects | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | |
Panel D: Return Drift following Earnings Announcements with a Bundled Management Forecast | |||||||
Dependent Variable: BHAR(x,y) | |||||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | ||||
Pred. | (+2, +10) | (+2, +20) | (+2, +60) | (+2, MEF outcome) | |||
Earnsurp | + | 0.008** | 0.012** | 0.019** | 0.029* | ||
(0.017) | (0.024) | (0.032) | (0.083) | ||||
MEF_News_contra | ? | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.006 | ||
(0.258) | (0.583) | (0.624) | (0.360) | ||||
EarnSurp*MEF_News_contra | – | −0.007*** | −0.010*** | −0.024*** | −0.085*** | ||
(0.009) | (0.01) | (0.001) | (0.000) | ||||
EarnSurp*MEF_News_contra*MEF_Bias_contra | ? (H3) | 0.003 | 0.008*** | 0.042*** | 0.147*** | ||
(0.102) | (0.002) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||||
Observations | 28,671 | 28,671 | 28,671 | 28,671 | |||
Adjusted R-squared | 0.008 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.017 | |||
Cluster | Firm | Firm | Firm | Firm | |||
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
Fixed Effects | Year | Year | Year | Year |
5 Additional analysis and robustness
5.1 Comparison to analyst forecast bias
Panel A: Comparing Managers’ Forecast Bias to Analysts’ Forecast Bias | |||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | ||
Prediction | MEF_Bias_ub | AEF Bias(pre) | MEF_Bias_ub - AEF Bias(pre) | AEF Bias(post) - AEF Bias(pre) | |
MissedExpectations | + | 0.382*** | 0.100* | 0.260*** | 0.194*** |
(0.000) | (0.062) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | – | −0.464*** | −0.346*** | −0.113*** | −0.023* |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.062) | ||
Observations | 29,559 | 29,559 | 29,559 | 29,559 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.183 | 0.133 | 0.075 | 0.057 | |
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Fixed Effects | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | |
Panel B: Analysts’ Forecast Bias based on Presence of a Bundled Management Forecast | |||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | |||
Prediction | MEF Bias_ub | Analyst Bias (with bundled MEF present) | Analyst Bias (without bundled MEF present) | ||
MissedExpectations | + | 0.382*** | 0.295*** | 0.025*** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||
LargeBeatExpectations | – | −0.464*** | −0.386*** | −0.009*** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||
Observations | 29,559 | 29,559 | 103,188 | ||
Adjusted R-squared | 0.183 | 0.133 | 0.169 | ||
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||
Fixed Effects | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | ||
Panel C: Cross-section on Managers’ Knowledge | |||||
Dependent Variable: MEF_Bias_ub | |||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | |||
Prediction | High Mgr. Knowledge | Low Mgr. Knowledge | Difference | ||
MissedExpectations | + | 0.634*** | 0.172*** | 0.462*** | |
(0.000) | (0.003) | (0.000) | |||
LargeBeatExpectations | – | −0.526*** | −0.293*** | −0.233** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.023) | |||
Observations | 6234 | 6229 | |||
Adjusted R-Squared | 0.211 | 0.148 | |||
Fixed Effects | Industry & Year | Industry & Year | |||
Controls | Yes | Yes |
5.2 The decision to issue bundled guidance and selection concerns
Panel A: Determinants of Providing a Bundled forecast | ||||
Dependent Variable: BundledForecast | ||||
[1] | ||||
MissedExpectations | −0.022*** | |||
(0.000) | ||||
LargeBeatExpectations | −0.002 | |||
(0.209) | ||||
ConferenceCall | 0.042*** | |||
(0.000) | ||||
ForcastedForEA | 0.056*** | |||
(0.000) | ||||
BundledAtLastEA | 0.360*** | |||
(0.000) | ||||
Dispersion | −0.047*** | |||
(0.000) | ||||
PriorStockReturn | −0.001 | |||
(0.766) | ||||
Size | 0.014*** | |||
(0.000) | ||||
Afollow | 0.007*** | |||
(0.000) | ||||
MBE | 0.060*** | |||
(0.000) | ||||
Observations | 194,012 | |||
Fixed Effects | Industry and Year | |||
Panel B: Bundled Management Forecast Bias Conditional on Earnings Surprise, Controlling for Inverse Mills Ratio | ||||
Prediction | MEF_Bias_ub | MEF_Bias_mp | MEF_Bias_range | |
MissedExpectations | + | 0.315*** | 0.308*** | 0.254*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | – | −0.420*** | −0.402*** | −0.346*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
InverseMillsRatio | ? | 0.143** | 0.121** | 0.112** |
(0.012) | (0.020) | (0.017) | ||
Observations | 29,559 | 29,559 | 29,559 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.241 | 0.202 | 0.196 | |
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Fixed Effects | Industry and Year | Industry and Year | Industry and Year |
5.3 Systematic management forecast behavior and correlated omitted variables
Dependent Variable: MEF_Bias_ub | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
[1] | [2] | [3] | [4] | [5] | [6] | ||
Pred. | Industry FE | Firm FE | Mgr. FE | No Serial Corr. & Ind. FE | No Serial Corr. & Firm FE | No Serial Corr. & Mgr. FE | |
MissedExpectations | + | 0.244*** | 0.257*** | 0.202*** | 0.114* | 0.226*** | 0.181*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.065) | (0.002) | (0.005) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | – | −0.456*** | −0.227*** | −0.185*** | −0.417*** | −0.153*** | −0.140*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.005) | (0.007) | ||
Observations | 23,998 | 23,998 | 23,998 | 11,530 | 11,530 | 11,530 | |
Adj. R-squared | 0.184 | 0.428 | 0.490 | 0.200 | 0.435 | 0.467 | |
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Fixed Effects | Ind. and Year | Firm and Year | Mgr. and Year | Ind. and Year | Firm and Year | Mgr. and Year |
5.4 Considering management forecasts of quarterly earnings
[1] | [2] | [3] | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction | MEF_Bias_ub | MEF_Bias_mp | MEF_Bias_range | |
MissedExpectations | + | 0.175*** | 0.153*** | 0.140*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | – | −0.242*** | −0.216*** | −0.168*** |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
Observations | 18,023 | 18,023 | 18,023 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.136 | 0.095 | 0.086 | |
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Fixed Effects | Industry & Year | Industry & Year | Industry & Year |
5.5 Considering other management disclosures
Panel A: Managers’ Non-GAAP Exclusions Conditional on Earnings Surprise | ||||
Dependent Variable = Non-GAAP Exclusions | ||||
[1] | [2] | |||
Prediction | All non-GAAP firms | Bundled forecasters | ||
MissedExpectations | + | 0.918*** | 0.668*** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | |||
LargeBeatExpectations | – | −0.498*** | −0.258*** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | |||
Observations | 46,419 | 23,258 | ||
Adjusted R-squared | 0.196 | 0.191 | ||
Controls | Yes | Yes | ||
Fixed Effects | Industry and Year | Industry and Year | ||
Panel B: Earnings Announcement Text Accompanying Bundled Forecasts | ||||
[1] | [2] | [3] | ||
DV = | FwdWords_Pct | FwdWords_Tone | FwdWords_Uncertainty | |
MissedExpectations | −0.003 | 0.001 | 0.015* | |
(0.483) | (0.923) | (0.055) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations | −0.004 | 0.013 | 0.007 | |
(0.309) | (0.143) | (0.472) | ||
MissedExpectations*SuspectForecast | 0.003 | 0.013* | −0.017** | |
(0.426) | (0.072) | (0.041) | ||
LargeBeatExpectations*SuspectForecast | −0.005 | 0.001 | −0.005 | |
(0.235) | (0.955) | (0.281) | ||
Observations | 7,012 | 7,012 | 7,012 | |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.069 | 0.053 | 0.076 | |
Controls | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Fixed Effects | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year | Ind. and Year |