The Belt and Road Initiatives and the growth of total factor productivity: based on the perspective of the regional import of intermediate goods

This study examined the dynamic changes of total factor productivity (TFP) in 53 countries along the “Belt and Road” Initiative from 2001 to 2018. Our findings are as follows: The TFP in most countries and regions dropped significantly after the international financial crisis, but it has shown an overall upward trend since 2013 the “Belt and Road” Initiative. A counterfactual test confirms that the Belt and Road Initiatives have had a significant growth effect on the TFP of these countries. Based on the gravity model and Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) method, this study explains the potential channel of the import of intermediate products in the region under the initiative to promote TFP in countries from a theoretical perspective. Because of the national characteristics, the import of intermediate goods in the region may not have an obvious effect on the growth of TFP, but as the time goes on, there is a positive effect of the Belt and Road Initiatives.