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The Annals of Regional Science
Published in: The Annals of Regional Science 2/2023

05-08-2022 | Original Paper

The changing relationship between metropolitan area population growth and central city decline in the US manufacturing belt

Author: John F. McDonald

Published in: The Annals of Regional Science | Issue 2/2023

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Abstract

This study examines population losses for 13 major central cities in the manufacturing belt of the USA over the period 1950 to 2020. The percentage change in the population of in a central city is related to population change at the metropolitan level. The main finding is that the propensity of the central cities to lose population declined after the disastrous 1970s. Data for the most recent decade (2010–2020) suggest that some of these central cities may not lose population at all, even if the population growth of the metropolitan area is small. Understanding this apparent change in the pattern of population change in urban areas is a major challenge for researchers.
next article A pure theory of population distribution when preferences are ordinal

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Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
The sample of 17 metro areas includes Kansas City, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, and Columbus. Each of these four added significant amounts of land area after 1950.
 
2
A Metropolitan Statistical Area is defined as a group of counties with a central county to which the other counties are attached socially and economically. The definition of an MSA changes over time as a metropolitan area spreads out to include additional counties.
 
3
The northern region is defined as New England, Mid-Atlantic region, East-North-Central region, West-North-Central region, Delaware, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. Population figures are:
 
4
A table of residuals is available upon request.
 
5
It might be thought that the effect of metropolitan size is driven by the inclusion of New York in the sample. The model was run without New York, and the coefficient of metro size did decline from 5.65 to 2.49, but the nature of the results did not change. Also, the run of the basic model with just the metro population growth rate on the right-hand-side, omitting New York, changes the results not at all.
 
Literature
Baum-Snow N (2007) Did highways cause suburbanization? Q J Econ 122:775–805CrossRef
Bradbury K, Downs A, Small K (1982) Urban decline and the future of American cities. The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC
Bradford D, Kelejian H (1973) An econometric model of flight to the suburbs. J Polit Econ 82:566–589CrossRef
Hughes CJ (2022) Buffalo is shaking off the rust. New York Times, July 8, 2022, p B6
McDonald J (2008) Urban America: growth, crisis, and rebirth. M.E. Sharpe, Armonk
McDonald J (2014) What happened to and in Detroit? Urban Stud 51:3309–3329CrossRef
McDonald J (2015) Postwar urban America. Routledge, New York
McDonald J, Carroll J (2020) What explains the housing boomlet in the city of Philadelphia? J Urban Regen Renew 15:66–83
Norton RD (1979) City life-cycles and American urban policy. Academic Press, New York
United States Bureau of the Census, various dates, Census of Population and Housing. USBC, Washington, DC
Wheaton W (1982) Urban spatial development with durable but replaceable capital. J Urban Econ 12:53–67CrossRef
Metadata
Title
The changing relationship between metropolitan area population growth and central city decline in the US manufacturing belt
Author
John F. McDonald
Publication date
05-08-2022
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in
The Annals of Regional Science / Issue 2/2023
Print ISSN: 0570-1864
Electronic ISSN: 1432-0592
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-022-01166-2

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