The Contribution of the Costs of Agricultural Inputs (to) Wheat Grain Yield: Morocco as a Case Study

In many Mediterranean countries, climate change issues, namely the scarcity of water resources, are essential for overcoming the obstacles to sustainable food production. In Morocco, cereal growing is a strategic sector that contributes significantly to food security. In order to improve socio-economic conditions in rural areas, the purpose of this study is to develop models for estimating wheat grain yield based on the cost of production. Based on a sample of 100 farms in Tadla, central Morocco, a model for estimating wheat yield in terms of agricultural inputs’ costs, was developed using stepwise regression approach. To evaluate its accuracy, this model was validated subsequently through k-fold cross validation (K-fold CV). This research provides a model to examine the contribution of the cost of each agricultural input to wheat grain yield, with the objective of understanding the types of actions that farmers can take to reduce production costs and ensure their resilience. This is useful in controlling the use of agricultural inputs that have the greatest impact on yields such as irrigation, fertilizers and soil cultivation practices.