The Dark Side of Nuclear Energy: Risks of Proliferation from Domestic Fuel Cycle Technologies

It has been almost three-quarters of a century since scientists developed ways to split atoms, releasing tremendous amounts of energy that were first used for weapons and then harnessed for more productive purposes in society. Most uses of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes pose few risks beyond those of safety and security of using radioactive material but the use of nuclear energy to generate electricity will always pose risks of diversion to nuclear weapons. Countries that seek to develop their own fuel cycle capabilities especially pose a higher risk for nuclear proliferation and efforts to restrict fuel cycle technologies – uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel reprocessing – rely on agreement among suppliers. Although the agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program is historic in its restriction of fuel cycle activities and material stockpiling, it is unlikely to be a model going forward. Additional challenges may arise if fast reactors are commercialized successfully and countries moving toward plutonium economies. This chapter will demonstrate how trends in the supply of and demand for nuclear energy and fuel cycle capabilities will shape future risks of nuclear proliferation.