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Published in: Empirical Economics 4/2018

17-10-2017

The effects of competitors on new product launch and market expansion in the hybrid car market

Author: Yizao Liu

Published in: Empirical Economics | Issue 4/2018

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the effect of competitors on automakers’ new product launch and market expansion decisions in the hybrid car market. Using data from the entire history in US hybrid car market from 2000 to 2014, this paper estimates a Poisson model with endogeneous switching to account for the initial launch and the following expansion decisions. The results indicate that the presence of competing brands’ hybrid vehicle models has a net positive effect on a brand’s initial launch and expansion decisions. This suggests that demand expansion and market learning from competitors’ hybrid model launch and consumer cultivation are very important for this relatively new technology. Further, I find that the impact of competitors varies over time, vehicle origins, and classes.

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Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
In May 2009, President Barack Obama proposed a new national fuel economy program to regulate both fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions. The program covers model years 2012–2016 and ultimately requires an average fuel economy standard of 39 miles per gallon for passenger cars and 30 mpg for trucks by 2016, a jump from an old average for all vehicles of 25 miles per gallon.
 
2
Although brands like Lexus and Toyota are owned by the same parent company, this paper focuses on their own hybrid decisions because each brand has its own consumer base and targeted market.
 
4
This includes automakers’ own official websites.
 
5
Each brand’s fuel efficiency and the market fuel efficiency are calculated using a harmonic mean. For a fleet composed of four different kinds of vehicle A, B, C, and D, produced in numbers \(n_A\), \(n_B\), \(n_C\), and \(n_D\), with fuel economies \(f_A\), \(f_B\), \(f_C\), and \(f_D\), the fleet’s fuel efficiency would be \(\frac{n_A + n_B + n_C + n_D}{\frac{n_A}{f_A}+\frac{n_B}{f_B}+\frac{n_C}{f_C}+\frac{n_D}{f_D}}\).
 
6
Currently, the CAFE penalty is $55 per vehicle for every 1 mpg under the standard. Some critics have argued that CAFE fines do not seem to be having much impact in the fuel economy drive. For example, in 25 years, from 1983 to 2008, Mercedes-Benz paid penalties 21 times and BMW paid penalties 20 times.
 
9
The gasoline price used is the average yearly unleaded regular gasoline price in the whole US market.
 
11
National Research Council, Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2013), p. 26.
 
12
I would love to thank one anonymous reviewer for this suggestion.
 
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Metadata
Title
The effects of competitors on new product launch and market expansion in the hybrid car market
Author
Yizao Liu
Publication date
17-10-2017
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in
Empirical Economics / Issue 4/2018
Print ISSN: 0377-7332
Electronic ISSN: 1435-8921
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1342-2

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