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Bioeconomy as a Driver for the Upcoming Seventh K-Wave (2050–2100) Read chapter Read first chapter

2021 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

3. The Emergence of Bioeconomy in the 6th Kondratiev Wave of Change: A Horizon Scanning-Based Approach

Authors : Emmanuel Koukios, Anna Sacio-Szymańska

Published in: Bio#Futures

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This paper reports research results on the assessment of the emergence of bioeconomy as part of the mega-wave of socio-technical change that has taken off with the global financial crisis of ca. 2008 and is expected to peak around 2030. The appearance of bioeconomy-related phenomena on this wave is strongly related to the formation of clusters of opportunities, problems and other key factors. Nine such clusters were identified with the use of previous foresight exercises following the Horizon Scanning approach, with the help of a specially designed for the needs of this work Questionnaire, focusing on major expectations, worries and modes of action. A tenth, “mystery” cluster was found necessary to cover collectively the effects of disrupting factors. The various interactions of the identified clusters can explain the so far sporadic and sometimes inconsistent observations on the emergence patterns of bioeconomy as part of a Kondratiev Wave.

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previous chapter What Can We Do? Participatory Foresight for the Bioeconomy Transition
next chapter Strategies for a Rapid Transition to a Circular, Biobased Society
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Metadata
Title
The Emergence of Bioeconomy in the 6th Kondratiev Wave of Change: A Horizon Scanning-Based Approach
Authors
Emmanuel Koukios
Anna Sacio-Szymańska
Copyright Year
2021
Book
Bio#Futures

Print ISBN: 978-3-030-64968-5

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-64969-2

Copyright Year: 2021

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64969-2_3