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Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft
Published in: Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 2/2011

01-06-2011

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Global Seaborne Hard Coal Market: Are there Implications for the Future?

Authors: Maggi Rademacher, Raphael Braun

Published in: Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft | Issue 2/2011

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Abstract

The global financial crisis in 2008 sent commodity markets spinning which caused demand to erode, price levels to quickly plummet and project financing costs to rise. In this paper, the authors examine the impacts the economic slowdown has had on the global seaborne hard coal market looking at the impacts for both coking (metallurgical) and thermal (steam) coals including pricing, supply availability, demand and aggregated mine level production costs. The hard coal market experienced a significant slow down; the commodity has bounced back strongly in 2010 driven by strong Asian demand at growth rates above historic levels and strong projections for the future.
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Footnotes
1
Barclays (2010) through 2011; Pira (2010), Merrill Lynch (2010) and Barclays (2010) through 2015.
 
2
Salva Resources (2010), internal study, November 2010. Plants sourced from domestic, imported or a blend of coal depending on location.
 
3
In Italy, a number of old plants have been or in the process of being converted to burn coal instead of oil (example: Porto Tolle).
 
4
Merrill Lynch (2010).
 
5
Historical price development found in Fig. 1.
 
6
Public mine level information does not provide quality information (i.e. energy content of individual mining seams and coals), so production capacity has not been adjusted based on the heating values of individual coals within a country.
 
7
Verein der Kohlenimporteure, Jahresbericht 2010, p. 68.
 
8
Deutsche Bank (2010)—Global Research October 2010, p. 25.
 
9
Aggregation for Export-Orientated Countries: Australia, South Africa, Indonesia, Colombia, Canada, Venezuela, New Zealand, Norway, and Mozambique.
 
Literature
Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) (2010) Energy in Australia 2010, Canberra 2010
Barclays Capital (2010) Commodities research coal and freight monthly, London, November 2010
Baruya, P (2007) Supply costs for internationally traded coal, IEA Clean Coal Centre, July 2007
Bayer Dr A, Rademacher M (2010) Long term development of the world’s seaborne steam coal export markets with focus on producing countries. Glückauf 146(10)
Deutsche Bank (2010) Global metals and mining sector—infrastructure is the key, October 2010
Energy Information Administration (2010b) Annual Coal Report 2009, Washington, DC, October 2010
Gruss, H (1989–2003) Entwicklung und Perspektiven für Angebot und Nachfrage auf dem Steinkohlenweltmarkt. Z Energiewirtsch 4/1989, 1/1991, 1/1992, 1/1993, 1/1994, 1/1995, 1/1996, 1/1997, 1/1998, 1/1999, 1/2000, 1/2001, 1/2002, 1/2003
Haftendorn C, Holz F (2010) COALMOD-World: a model to assess international coal markets until 2030. DIW, Berlin, September 2010
International Energy Agency (2010a) Coal Information 2010, Paris
International Energy Agency (2010b) World Energy Outlook 2010, Paris
Kopal C (2007) Entwicklung und Perspektive von Angebot und Nachfrage am Steinkohlenweltmarkt. Energiewirtsch 1/2007
Macquarie Commodities Research (2010) Commodities Compendium, London, October 2010
Merrill Lynch (2010) Global Metals Weekly, London, December 10th, 2010
Pira (2010) International Coal Market Outlook, New York, October 2010
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Rademacher M (2008) Development and perspectives on supply and demand in the global hard coal market. Z Energiewirtsch 02/2008
Salva Resources (2010) Internal Study Indian Infrastructure, Brisbane
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Trüby J, Moritz P (2010) Have Prices of internationally traded steam coal been marginal cost based? EWI Working Paper, No 10/05, October 2010
Argus Coal Daily International, Argus Media, London
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Clarksons Derivatives Report, London, csl@clarksons.com
Indonesian Coal and Power, Barlow Jonker, Sydney
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McCloskeys Fax, McCloskeys, London, Petersfield
McCloskeys Newswire, McCloskeys, London, Petersfield
Merrill Lynch, Global Metals Weekly, London
South African Coal Report, Barlow Jonker, Sydney
Metadata
Title
The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Global Seaborne Hard Coal Market: Are there Implications for the Future?
Authors
Maggi Rademacher
Raphael Braun
Publication date
01-06-2011
Publisher
Vieweg Verlag
Published in
Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft / Issue 2/2011
Print ISSN: 0343-5377
Electronic ISSN: 1866-2765
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-011-0051-3

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