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01-01-2010

The Santiago Panel: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago

Authors: María Francisca Yáñez, Patricio Mansilla, Juan de Dios Ortúzar

Published in: Transportation | Issue 1/2010

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Abstract

Although panels offer significant advantages over cross sectional data especially in terms of evaluating the effects of significant policy changes, there are precious few examples of panels built around an important change to an urban transport system. For this reason we took the opportunity of the introduction of Transantiago, a radically new public transport system for Santiago de Chile in February 2007, to form a panel, the first wave of which was taken in December 2006. The final objective was to use this Santiago Panel to estimate mode choice models considering both inertia and policy effects. This document describes both the design and construction of the panel, and presents some results based on an analysis of its four waves; for example, we registered a high percentage of mode change (55.1%) attributable to the introduction of the new system. The panel can claim the highest response rate (or lowest attrition) reported in the literature (95% in the second wave, 92% in the third one, and 85% in the forth one). This hints at the possibility of developing sophisticated models to evaluate the effects of a system shock in the presence of inertia in decision making.

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There are no season tickets in Santiago as yet, although the new technology introduced by Transantiago would certainly allow for it.

It is not exaggerated to say that the coalition in power during the last 20 years of democratic government stands to lose the next general election, in September 2009, mainly because of Transantiago.

In the first three waves we questioned respondents about their usual form of travel to work and whether it varied during the week; in the last wave, we enquired about the way in which they had travelled to work during the last week (i.e. 5 days).

We also evaluated the alternative of including trips to study, but considered that re-contacting students successfully in successive waves during two years would imply much higher risks of attrition.

This size of sample ensures an estimate of mode choice in the population with 25% error at the 90% confidence level (based on detecting the mode with the smallest share of 8%, see Appendix 2).

This could be a pure mode or an intermodal mode, such as Shared-taxi-Metro or Bus-Metro.

The data for the buses and the underground was provided, with maximum available detail, by the operators (Metro S.A and Transantiago S.A.). The main haul data for the private modes and shared taxis was measured, using instrumented cars, by the Traffic Laboratory at the Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics. The access data (to bus stops or stations in the case of public transport modes, or in the secondary network in the case of private vehicles) was measured on Google maps of the city.

The average age in Chile is 31 years. The difference among waves is low, as the average age of the people who left the panel is higher than the age of the initial sample.

The average number of cars/household in Chile is currently 0.56.

The average income in Chile is currently US$ 582/month.

Transfers made during a 2 h window do not have to pay an additional charge.

Experts jokingly refer to this as Metro having changed from being a Boutique to a Mall, but more seriously, this has obviously a high social value and makes the underground a much more socially worthy investment.

Winner/looser means that the trip between two successive waves is better/worse, in terms of: cost, travel time, waiting time, walking time or transfers. We are grateful to an anonymous referee for having suggested this analysis.

It prove impossible to locate later some individuals, selected at the beginning, who had just a temporal contract with the University.

The project was managed by the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile under a grant from FONDECYT, one of the main funding bodies for scientific and technological research of the Chilean government.

This question was only included in the second wave.

This is perhaps the only design fault of the new system; these “latent” factors were not considered more than indirectly in the network design model used (Fernández et al. 2008).

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Title: The Santiago Panel: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago
Authors: María Francisca Yáñez
Patricio Mansilla
Juan de Dios Ortúzar
Publication date: 01-01-2010
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Transportation / Issue 1/2010
Print ISSN: 0049-4488
Electronic ISSN: 1572-9435
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-009-9223-y

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