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2019 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

9. The Significance of Anticipation

Author : Jeremy Ghez

Published in: Architects of Change

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The objective of anticipation is to generate a set of distinct, mutually exclusive scenarios that points to the major themes we should have on our radar screen. In this chapter, Ghez discusses the importance of anticipation and provides an overview of the tools that can help architects of change generate these scenarios. This exploration of the future can help them test the relevance of their current strategy or their approach given what the future could hold. It can also assist them in identifying the key dynamics shaping the future and shed light on the most meaningful levers of reinvention. Ghez concludes by discussing the limits of scenarios.

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previous chapter Case Study: Strategizing at Amazon When Globalization Comes Under Pressure

next chapter Case Study: Getting Ready for the World in Five Years

“Africa Rising,” The Economist, December 3, 2011, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2011/12/03/africa-rising.

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The quote is from former RAND Corporation long-term policy analyst, Jim Dewar, quoted in Gregory F. Treverton and Jeremy J. Ghez, Making Strategic Analysis Matter, RAND Corporation Conference Proceedings Series CF287-NIC (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2012).

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See in particular Jerker Denrell, “‘Experts’ Who Beat the Odds Are Probably Just Lucky,” Harvard Business Review, April 1, 2013, https://hbr.org/2013/04/experts-who-beat-the-odds-are-probably-just-lucky.

Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Reprint edition (Broadway Books, 2016).

See for instance George Friedman and Meredith Lebard, The Coming War with Japan, 1st edition (New York: St Martins Press, 1991).

Only two days before Ben Ali’s ouster, then-French Minister of Foreign Affairs Michèle Alliot-Marie suggested that France could assist Tunisia in containing the ongoing riots that would later be known as the beginning of the Arab Spring. Her offer is often seen as very telling of the lack of understanding of Western governments of what was actually happening in the region at the time.

Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, Reprint edition (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1981).

Dehio, Ludwig, The Precarious Balance: The Politics of Power in Europe, 1494–1945, London, UK: Chatto & Windus, 1963, p. 19.

Tetlock and Gardner, Superforecasting.

See for instance Guido Jouret, “Inside Cisco’s Search for the Next Big Idea,” Harvard Business Review 87, no. 9 (September 2009): 43–45.

John Day, “Review of Cross-Government Horizon Scanning” (London, UK: Cabinet Office, January 21, 2013), https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-cross-government-horizon-scanning.

Quoted in Paul Bairoch, Jean-Charles Asselain, and Anne Saint-Girons, Mythes et paradoxes de l’histoire économique (Paris: La Découverte, 2005).

In the case of the United States, see the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends Reports: “Global Trends Home Page,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, accessed April 12, 2019, https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends-home. For the European Union, see European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) and its Global Trends to 2030 reports: “European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS),” accessed April 12, 2019, https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/espas.

See: “The National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS),” accessed April 12, 2019, https://www.nscs.gov.sg/events.html.

Title: The Significance of Anticipation
Author: Jeremy Ghez
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Architects of Change
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-20683-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-20684-0

Copyright Year: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20684-0_9

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