14. The Triple A Issue: Agriculture, Alimentation Needs, Agrofuels

The triple A issue is discussed with, as its starting point, the analysis of present agricultural output and its projection on to 2050, so as to place it in the context of the major evolutions required between now and 2050 with growing populations, energy needs, alimentation needs, and agricultural production, the unprecedented growth of carbon-free energy needs in a context where emerging countries enjoy strong economic growth, thus increasing the need for energy by a factor of two at the world level. The environmental impact of large-scale farming and its capacity to produce energy are reviewed quantitatively on a world scale. A rational appreciation of the uncertainties and of the risks concerning our future ability to satisfy human alimentation needs is put forward. From this analysis, we conclude that the concerns expressed by some are not entirely unfounded but that the problem of human alimentation today is not due to insufficient foodstuff output on a world scale. Moreover, it appears that there is the potential for significantly increased output from large-scale farming. The risk of competition between foodstuff production and that of agrofuels is not as imminent as has been said, for simple economical reasons and also because of the location of production. The impact of large-scale farming on greenhouse gas emissions or on the world energy supply is evaluated and appears small, or very small relative to overall needs and emissions. Still, the principal cause for concern about alimentation needs, could well be that states or world governance bodies abandon their obligation to ensure that populations’ alimentation needs are covered decently, a mandatory ethical priority.