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2019 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

1. The Turn of Fortune: Realignment in Taiwan’s Domestic Politics and Diplomacy

Author : Wei-chin Lee

Published in: Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The chapter surveys and summarizes key findings of various chapters and highlights several distinctive features of Taiwanese politics in the 2016 regime change. There is a recurring pattern with candidates and parties making bloated campaign promises and then failing to fulfill them. Identity politics has been a constant theme in policy deliberation and partisan competition. In any analysis of Taiwan’s national security and foreign policy, cross-Strait relations with China remain an inescapable variable for consideration. Finally, the Tsai government has decided to realign with the US, Japan, and the Southeast Asia region to mitigate China’s pressure and threats.

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next chapter The Quality of Democracy in Taiwan
Footnotes
1
Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991). Fukuyama, Francis, The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2012).
 
2
“From Riches to Rags: Taiwan’s Kuomintang party is Broke and Adrift,” The Economist, Dec. 15, 2016, www.economist.com/news/asia/21711925-new-law-has-allowed-government-freeze-its-assets-leaving-it-unable-pay-staff-taiwans. Accessed Oct. 15, 2017.
 
3
Edward White, “Xi Jinping Talks Tough on Taiwan ‘Separatists’,” Financial Times, Oct. 18, 2017, www.ft.com/content/0093e84d-da46-36a8-a6db-28f311c2b2c1. Accessed Nov. 5, 2017.
 
4
Juan J. Linz and Alfred C. Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), 5. Also see Thomas Carothers, “The End of the Transition Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 1 (January 2002): 7.
 
5
Amartya Sen, “Democracy as a Universal Value,” Journal of Democracy 10, no. 3 (1999): 5.
 
6
For definitional controversy, see Andre Schedler, “Concepts of Democratic Consolidation,” paper presented at the 20th International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Guadalajara, Mexico. Vienna: Institute for Advanced Studies, 1997. lasa.international.pitt.edu/LASA97/schedler.pdf. Accessed Nov. 5, 2017. Mark J. Gasiorowski and Timothy J. Power, “The Structural Determinants of Democratic Consolidation: Evidence from the Third World,” Comparative Political Studies 31, no. 6 (1998): 740–771.
 
7
Rein Taagepera, “Seats and Votes: A Generalization of the Cube Law of Elections,” Social Science Research 2, no. 3 (1973): 257–275. Rein Taagepera, “Reformulating the Cube Law for Proportional Representation Elections,” American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 489–504. Tse-min Lin and Feng-yu Lee, “The Spatial Organization of Elections and the Cube Law,” Issues and Studies 45, no. 2 (2009): 61–98.
 
8
Alberto Alesina, Enrico Spolaore, and Romain Wacziarg, “Economic Integration and Political Disintegration,” American Economic Review 90, no. 50 (2000): 1293–94.
 
9
Yun-han Chu, “The Taiwan Factor,” Journal of Democracy 23, no. 1 (2012): 42–56.
 
10
T. J. Cheng and Wei-chin Lee, “Wrestling over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): US Strategic Interests, China’s Responses, and Taiwan’s Membership Options,” in The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Path to Free Trade in the Asia-Pacific, ed. Peter Chow (Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2016), 49–77.
 
11
Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017). Also see Ronald L. Tammen, Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2000). A.F.K. Organski, World Politics (New York: Knopf, 1958).
 
12
Charles Glaser, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does not Mean Pessimism,” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 2 (March/April 2011): 81.
 
13
Toshi Yoshihara and James R. Holmes, Red Star over the Pacific: China’s Rise and the Challenges to US Maritimes Strategy (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010).
 
14
Alan M. Wachman, Why Taiwan? Geostrategic Rationales for China’s Territorial Integrity (Redwood City, CA: Stanford University Press, 2007). David Gitter, “How Chinese analysts Understand Taiwan’s Geostrategic Significance,” The Diplomat, March 11, 2016, thediplomat.​com/​2016/​03/​how-chinese-analysts-understand-taiwans-geostrategic-significance/. Accessed Oct. 3, 2017.
 
15
Jane Rickards, “Taiwan Looks Southward,” Taiwan Business TOPICS, American Chamber of Commerce, May 11, 2017, topics.amcham.com.tw/2017/05/taiwan-looks-southward/. Accessed Nov. 5, 2017.
 
16
Peter Ferdinand, “Westward Ho—the China Dream and ‘One Belt, One Road’: Chinese Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping,” International Affairs 92, no. 4 (2016): 941–957.
 
17
Wei-chin Lee, “Taiwan, the South China Sea Dispute, and the 2016 Arbitration Decision,” Journal of Chinese Political Science 22, no. 2 (2017): 229–250; Anne Hsiao-An Hsiao, “The South China Sea Arbitration and Taiwan’s Claim: Legal and Political Implications,” Journal of Chinse Political Science 22, no. 2 (2017): 221–228.
 
18
Luis Roniger, “Modern Populism in Latin America,” Oxford Bibliographies, August 26, 2013, http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199766581/obo-9780199766581-0130.xml. Accessed April 2, 2017. Dwayne Woods, “The Many Faces of Populism: Diverse But not Disparate,” in The Many Faces of Populism: Current Perspectives, ed. Daywane Woods and Barbara Wejnert (Bingley, UK: Emerald Pub., 2014), 1–26.
 
19
W. Lance Bennett and Alexandra Segerberg, The Logic of Connective Action: Digital Media and the Personalization of Contentious Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013). Mark R. Beissinger, “‘Conventional’ and ‘Virtual’ Civil Societies in Autocratic Regimes,” Comparative Politics 49 no. 3 (2017): 351–371.
 
20
David Armstrong, Theo Farrell and Helene Lambert, International Law and International Relations (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012), 104–110.
 
21
Jűrgen Habermas, Legitimation Crisis, trans. Thomas McCarthy (Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, 1988), 70.
 
22
Andrew Moravcsik, “Taking Preferences Seriously: A Liberal Theory of International Politics,” International Organization 51, no. 4 (1997): 518.
 
23
Katherine Barbieri, “Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace of a Source of Interstate Conflict,” Journal of Peace Research 33, no. 1 (1996): 29–49.
 
24
Joanne Gowa, Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994), 6. A brief piece of this claim can be found in Joanne Gowa and Edward D. Mansfield, “Power Politics and International Trade,” in Contending Perspectives in International Political Economy, ed. Nikolaos Zahariadis (Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt Brace, 1999), 79–87.
 
25
Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and the Crisis with China (Harvard University Press, 2011).
 
26
Thucydides, The History of the Peloponnesian War, Book 5, Chapter 17 (The Melian Dialogue), trans. Richard Crawley, Project Gutenberg, May 1, 2009 [EBook #7142], Last Updated: February 7, 2013, www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/7142.
 
27
Wei-chin Lee, “A Quartet in Disharmony: Taiwan, Japan, China, and the US in the Diaoyu(tai)/Senkaku Islands Dispute in the 2010s,” American Journal of Chinese Studies 21 (June 2014): 95–109. Wei-chin Lee, “Taiwan, the South China Sea Dispute, and the 2016 Arbitration Decision,” Journal of Chinese Political Science 22, no. 2 (2017): 229–250.
 
28
Fred Kaplan, “Obama’s Way,” Foreign Affairs 95, no. 1 (Jan/Feb. 2016): 46–63.
 
29
For a study of the relationship between development and context by developmental psychologists, please see Robert Cohen and Alexander W. Siegel, “A Context for Context: Toward an Analysis of Context and Development,” in Context and Development, eds. Robert Cohen and Alexander W. Siegel (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Pub., 1991), 3–23.
 
30
Michael J. Green, “Future Visions of Asian Security: The Five Rings,” Asian Policy no. 3 (2007): 21.
 
31
Wei-chin Lee, “Taiwan’s Cultural Reconstruction Movement: Identity Politics and Collective Action since 2000,” Issues and Studies 41, no. 1 (March 2005): 1–51; Alastair Iain Johnston, “Beijing’s Security Behavior in the Asia-Pacific: Is China a Dissatisfied Power?” in Rethinking Security in East Asia: Identity, Power, and Efficiency, ed. J. J. Suh, Peter J. Katzenstein, and Allen Carson (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004), 65. See Richard Bush, “Taiwan Faces China; Attraction and Repulsion,” in Power Shift, ed. David Shambaugh (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2005), 180.
 
Literature
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Armstrong, David, Theo Farrell, and Helene Lambert. 2012. International Law and International Relations, 104–110. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
Barbieri, Katherine. 1996. Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace of a Source of Interstate Conflict. Journal of Peace Research 33 (1): 29–49.CrossRef
Beissinger, Mark R. 2017. ‘Conventional’ and ‘Virtual’ Civil Societies in Autocratic Regimes. Comparative Politics 49 (3): 351–371.CrossRef
Bennett, W. Lance, and Alexandra Segerberg. 2013. The Logic of Connective Action: Digital Media and the Personalization of Contentious Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
Bush, Richard. 2005. Taiwan Faces China; Attraction and Repulsion. In Power Shift, ed. David Shambaugh, 170–186. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Carothers, Thomas. 2002. The End of the Transition Paradigm. Journal of Democracy 13 (1, January): 5–21.CrossRef
Cheng, T.J., and Wei-chin Lee. 2016. Wrestling Over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): US Strategic Interests, China’s Responses, and Taiwan’s Membership Options. In The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Path to Free Trade in the Asia-Pacific, ed. Peter Chow, 49–77. Cheltenham/Northampton: Edward Elgar.CrossRef
Chu, Yun-han. 2012. The Taiwan Factor. Journal of Democracy 23 (1): 42–56.CrossRef
Cohen, Robert, and Alexander W. Siegel. 1991. A Context for Context: Toward an Analysis of Context and Development. In Context and Development, ed. Robert Cohen and Alexander W. Siegel, 3–23. Hillsdale: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Pub.
Ferdinand, Peter. 2016. Westward Ho—The China Dream and ‘One Belt, One Road’: Chinese Foreign Policy Under Xi Jinping. International Affairs 92 (4): 941–957.CrossRef
Fukuyama, Francis. 2012. The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution. New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux.
Gasiorowski, Mark J., and Timothy J. Power. 1998. The Structural Determinants of Democratic Consolidation: Evidence from the Third World. Comparative Political Studies 31 (6): 740–771.CrossRef
Glaser, Charles. 2011. Will China’s Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism. Foreign Affairs 90 (2, March/April): 80–91.
Gowa, Joanne. 1994. Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Gowa, Joanne, and Edward D. Mansfield. 1999. Power Politics and International Trade. In Contending Perspectives in International Political Economy, ed. Nikolaos Zahariadis, 79–87. Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace.
Green, Michael J. 2007. Future Visions of Asian Security: The Five Rings. Asian Policy 3: 19–24.CrossRef
Habermas, Jűrgen. 1988. Legitimation Crisis. Trans. Thomas McCarthy. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Hsiao, Anne Hsiao-An. 2017. The South China Sea Arbitration and Taiwan’s Claim: Legal and Political Implications. Journal of Chinese Political Science 22 (2): 221–228.CrossRef
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
Johnston, Alastair Iain. 2004. Beijing’s Security Behavior in the Asia-Pacific: Is China a Dissatisfied Power? In Rethinking Security in East Asia: Identity, Power, and Efficiency, ed. J.J. Suh, Peter J. Katzenstein, and Allen Carson, 34–73. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Kaplan, Fred. 2016. Obama’s Way. Foreign Affairs 95 (1, January/February): 46–63.
Lee, Wei-chin. 2005. Taiwan’s Cultural Reconstruction Movement: Identity Politics and Collective Action Since 2000. Issues and Studies 41 (1, March): 1–51.
———. 2014. A Quartet in Disharmony: Taiwan, Japan, China, and the US in the Diaoyu(tai)/Senkaku Islands Dispute in the 2010s. American Journal of Chinese Studies 21 (June): 95–109.
———. 2017. Taiwan, the South China Sea Dispute, and the 2016 Arbitration Decision. Journal of Chinese Political Science 22 (2): 229–250.CrossRef
Lin, Tse-min, and Feng-yu Lee. 2009. The Spatial Organization of Elections and the Cube Law. Issues and Studies 45 (2): 61–98.
Linz, Juan J., and Alfred C. Stepan. 1996. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Moravcsik, Andrew. 1997. Taking Preferences Seriously: A Liberal Theory of International Politics. International Organization 51 (4): 513–553.CrossRef
Organski, A.F.K. 1958. World Politics. New York: Knopf.
Sen, Amartya. 1999. Democracy as a Universal Value. Journal of Democracy 10 (3): 3–17.CrossRef
Taagepera, Rein. 1973. Seats and Votes: A Generalization of the Cube Law of Elections. Social Science Research 2 (3): 257–275.CrossRef
———. 1986. Reformulating the Cube Law for Proportional Representation Elections. American Political Science Review 80 (2, June): 489–504.CrossRef
Tammen, Ronald L. 2000. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
Thucydides. 2009. The History of the Peloponnesian War, Book 5, Chapter 17 (The Melian Dialogue). Trans. Richard Crawley. Project Gutenberg, May 1 [EBook #7142]. www.​gutenberg.​org/​ebooks/​7142. Accessed 2 Nov 2017.
Tucker, Nancy Bernkopf. 2011. Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and the Crisis with China. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.CrossRef
Wachman, Alan M. 2007. Why Taiwan? Geostrategic Rationales for China’s Territorial Integrity. Redwood City: Stanford University Press.CrossRef
Woods, Dwayne. 2014. The Many Faces of Populism: Diverse But Not Disparate. In The Many Faces of Populism: Current Perspectives, ed. Daywane Woods and Barbara Wejnert, 1–26. Bingley: Emerald Pub.CrossRef
Yoshihara, Toshi, and James R. Holmes. 2010. Red Star Over the Pacific: China’s Rise and the Challenges to US Maritimes Strategy. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press.
Metadata
Title
The Turn of Fortune: Realignment in Taiwan’s Domestic Politics and Diplomacy
Author
Wei-chin Lee
Copyright Year
2019
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Book
Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-77124-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-77125-0

Copyright Year: 2019

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77125-0_1