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Demography

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21-11-2017

Three Dimensions of Change in School Segregation: A Grade-Period-Cohort Analysis

Authors: Jeremy E. Fiel, Yongjun Zhang

Published in: Demography | Issue 1/2018

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Abstract

This study uses the first age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of segregation to examine changes in U.S. public school segregation from 1999–2000 to 2013–2014. APC analyses disentangle distinct sources of change in segregation, and they account for grade effects that could distort temporal trends if grade distributions change over time. Findings indicate that grade effects are substantial, drastically reducing segregation at the transition to middle school and further at the transition to high school. These grade effects do not substantially distort the analysis of recent trends, however, because grade distributions were sufficiently stable. Black-white segregation was stagnant overall, while Hispanic-white segregation declined modestly. In both cases, declines across periods were offset by increases across cohorts. Further analyses reveal variation in these trends across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, regions, and areas with different histories of desegregation policy.

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We ignore kindergarten in this study. Although most students attend kindergarten, states differ in their requirements regarding the provision and nature of kindergarten.

This is based on students in grades 1–12 in our primary analytic sample, which we describe in the Data and Measures section.

Although school choice policies also expanded throughout this period, this expansion affected all regions. See Table 216.90, 2016 Digest of Education Statistics (https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_216.90.asp).

See Table 21 at http://www.census.gov/library/publications/2011/demo/p20-565.html.

If such policy changes are anticipated by families at school entry or are phased in across cohorts, they may emerge as cohort effects rather than period effects.

Although yearly grade-specific racial composition data are unavailable for private schools, grade-specific total enrollment data are available from the Private School Surveys every two years from 1997 to 2011. We use linear interpolation to impute intervening years.

The West is one instance where the conventional trend is distorted by changing grade distributions; it gives the false appearance of declining black-white segregation (not shown).

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Title: Three Dimensions of Change in School Segregation: A Grade-Period-Cohort Analysis
Authors: Jeremy E. Fiel
Yongjun Zhang
Publication date: 21-11-2017
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Demography / Issue 1/2018
Print ISSN: 0070-3370
Electronic ISSN: 1533-7790
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-017-0632-9

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