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Published in:
2019 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Time-to-Birth Prediction Models and the Influence of Expert Opinions
Authors : Gilles Vandewiele, Isabelle Dehaene, Olivier Janssens, Femke Ongenae, Femke De Backere, Filip De Turck, Kristien Roelens, Sofie Van Hoecke, Thomas Demeester
Published in: Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
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Abstract
Preterm birth is the leading cause of death among children under five years old. The pathophysiology and etiology of preterm labor are not yet fully understood. This causes a large number of unnecessary hospitalizations due to high–sensitivity clinical policies, which has a significant psychological and economic impact. In this study, we present a predictive model, based on a new dataset containing information of 1,243 admissions, that predicts whether a patient will give birth within a given time after admission. Such a model could provide support in the clinical decision-making process. Predictions for birth within 48 h or 7 days after admission yield an Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC) of 0.72 for both tasks. Furthermore, we show that by incorporating predictions made by experts at admission, which introduces a potential bias, the prediction effectiveness increases to an AUC score of 0.83 and 0.81 for these respective tasks.