Urban Development in Asia and Africa

Remote sensing analysis and land change modeling provide valuable insights into urban land use/cover changes and growth processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This chapter briefly outlines the importance of remote sensing, and land change modeling for urbanization studies in selected countries in Africa and Asia. The methodological approaches discussed in this book showcase the potential of remote sensing and land change modeling analysis in order to improve understanding of urban growth in Africa and Asia. Given the complexity of urban growth processes globally, issues raised in this book will contribute to the improvement of future land use/cover change analysis and modeling, particularly in the developing country context. The geospatial analysis approach based on remote sensing and land change modeling provides a synoptic view of urbanization in Africa and Asia.

Remote sensing, GIS, and land change models (LCMs) are critical for mapping urban land use/cover and simulating “what if” urban growth scenarios, particularly in developing countries experiencing rapid urbanization. The purpose of this chapter is to describe briefly the methodology used to produce land use/cover maps, and simulate land use/cover changes for selected metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa. Land use/cover maps were classified from Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2014 using the random forest (RF) classifier. Quantitative accuracy assessment was not conducted for the 1990 land use/cover maps due to lack of reference data. However, qualitative and quantitative accuracy assessment was performed for the 2000, 2010, and 2014 land use/cover maps based on Google Earth imagery. Overall land use/cover classification accuracy for all land use/cover maps ranged from 70 to 90%. Land use/cover changes were simulated based on the boosted regression trees-cellular automata (BRT-CA) and RF-CA LCMs. We evaluated the goodness-of-fit of transition potential maps, and validated the simulated land use/cover changes based on robust statistical measures. Generally, the BRT-CA and RF-CA LCMs for all metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa performed relatively well. In particular, the BRT-CA and RF-CA LCMs for metropolitan areas in Africa had the best performance. The modeling and simulation results presented in this chapter provide an initial exploration of BRT-CA and RF-CA LCMs in Asia and Africa. This chapter demonstrates the significance of robust calibration, validation, and simulation of spatial LCMs for all metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa.

This chapter gives an overview of urbanization in Asia and Africa in the late twentieth century. Furthermore, rapid urbanization in the 15 countries that are covered in this book is analyzed using several indices related to population and economics. Many Asian and African countries had long been under Western colonial rule. Most of these countries gained independence after World War II. Following independence, most of them have rapidly developed, and urbanization has progressed. Given the colonial historical background, population and urban functions were dominantly concentrated in primate cities. While the increase in population and industry in the primate cities are considered as symbols of economic growth, rapid urban development resulted in social and environmental problems. To date, these problems have not yet been solved, and are still serious in Asian and African cities. Nevertheless, rapid economic growth has been taking place since the 1980s in Asia, and since 2000 in Africa. While Asia is at a more advanced phase of urban development and its ensuing problems, Africa is following Asia’s tracks. In this chapter, a time series of population and GDP growth data is used to gain important insights of rapid urbanization in Asia and Africa.

This chapter traces the origin and brief history of Beijing Metropolitan Area, one of the megacities of Asia and the national capital region of the People’s Republic of China. The urban primacy, urban land use/cover changes, and the driving forces that influence the rapid urbanization of Beijing Metropolitan Area are examined. Their implications for future sustainable urban development of this megacity are also discussed. Beijing Metropolitan Area is one of the global cities. It has a long history as well as unprecedented urbanization process. Over the past 25 years from 1989 to 2014, Beijing Metropolitan Area has urbanized rapidly due to various interrelated factors. The changes in land management system and city functions (that is, change from industrial center to political, cultural, and science and technological center) as well as population and economic growth contributed to urban development. However, key urban issues such as the gap between urban and rural areas, environmental pollution, etc., should be considered for future development. Both the local and national government as well as other stakeholders need to push for the sustainable urban development of Beijing Metropolitan Area.

Metro Manila, the national capital region of the Philippines, is one of the megacities in Asia. This chapter traces its origin and examines its urban primacy. It also examines the recent (1993–2014) and potential future (2014–2030) urban land changes, i.e., changes from non-built-up to built-up lands, in Metro Manila and its surrounding areas using geospatial tools and techniques. Some of the possible key factors influencing the urban development of Metro Manila and the potential implications of its rapid population growth and urban land changes to its future sustainable urban development are discussed. The analysis showed compelling evidence for Metro Manila’s urban primacy over the other metropolitan areas and regions in the country based on population and gross domestic product. Over the past 21 years (1993–2014), the area of built-up lands has increased almost twofold, transforming the landscape of Metro Manila and its surrounding areas. The relatively small land area of Metro Manila, its geographic characteristics and population and economic growth, the concentration of key urban functions/services and opportunities in the area, and its accessibility are hypothesized to be among the key factors influencing the spatiotemporal patterns of urban land changes and the overall urban development of the region. The simulated urban land changes indicated that built-up lands would continue to expand in the future (2014–2030) under the influence of infill and sprawl development patterns. The intensifying pressure of urbanization due to rapid population growth and urban land changes poses many challenges that need to be considered in sustainable urban development and landscape planning.

Jakarta Metropolitan Area expands outside of DKI Jakarta (Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta: Special Capital Region of Jakarta) and includes Bogor and Bekasi in West Java Province and Tangerang in Banten Province. Land use/cover pattern and change analysis indicated that built up area in Jakarta expanded in all directions since 1989. The east–west development strategy, which was designed to prevent the deterioration of the aquifer environment, has not appeared to be thoroughly implemented. This may have caused, in part, escalation of land subsidence due to excessive groundwater pumping for urban water demand. Therefore, proper urban and land use planning at watershed or metropolitan scale is required for the sustainable development of Jakarta.

Vietnam in general and Hanoi in particular, have experienced rapid urbanization due to economic reforms and open door policies in the last two decades. The purpose of this chapter is to examine the observed and projected urban land changes (i.e., changes from non-built-up to built-up lands) between 1989 and 2030, as well as to understand the driving forces of urban development in Hanoi Metropolitan Area (Metro Hanoi). Their implications for Metro Hanoi’s future sustainable development are also discussed. History reveals that the urban development of Metro Hanoi is closely related to feudal dynasties and political status of Vietnam. The observed urban land changes show that Metro Hanoi has undergone rapid urbanization over the past two decades. This rapid urbanization was mainly driven by economic development, urban planning, population growth, and urban policies. While urbanization has produced positive economic outcomes, serious problems have since emerged. The detected spatiotemporal patterns of the observed and simulated urban land changes can be used to assist strategic urban planning in Metro Hanoi.

Bangkok, the capital city of Thailand, has a high density population and viable economic prospects. According to the results of land use/cover change and landscape metrics analyses, built-up area in Bangkok increased substantially between 1988 and 2014. Built-up areas expanded almost evenly along the existing urban areas in all direction. Urban growth process in Bangkok was dominated by extension and densification. The land use/cover projection under the current scenario indicates that built-up area will fill most area within 30 km from the city center of Bangkok and that will also spread comparatively linearly and irregularly to the outer edge of Bangkok. After the 1980s, the influx of foreign companies including Japan promoted the development of Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). Such prominent urban development of Bangkok brought various urban problems, such as traffic and water environmental problems. Countermeasures against these problems are highly important for sustainable development in the future.

Yangon Metropolitan Area, also known as the Greater Yangon, is Myanmar’s largest commercial center and home to the country’s former capital, Yangon City. This chapter traces the origin and examines the urban primacy of Yangon Region, the region where this metropolitan area is located. It also examines the recent (1989–2014) and potential future (2014–2030) urban land changes, i.e., changes from non-built-up to built-up lands, in the metropolitan area using geospatial tools and techniques. Finally, it discusses some of the possible key factors influencing the urban development of the area and the potential implications of its rapid population growth and urban land changes to its future sustainable urban development. The analysis showed compelling evidence for Yangon Region’s urban primacy over the other regions/states in the country based on population density and proportion of urban population. Over the past 25 years (1989–2014), the area of built-up lands in the study area has increased more than threefold. The geographic location and landscape characteristics of the metropolitan area and its population growth and status as the largest commercial center in the country and the home of the country’s former capital city are hypothesized to be among the key factors influencing the spatiotemporal patterns of urban land changes and the overall urban development of the area. The simulated urban land changes indicated that built-up lands would continue to expand in the future (2014–2030) under the influence of infill and sprawl development patterns. The intensifying pressure of urbanization due to rapid population growth and urban land changes poses many challenges that need to be considered in sustainable urban development and landscape planning.

This chapter traces the origin of Dhaka Metropolis, one of the megacities of Asia, and the capital city of Bangladesh. Urban primacy, urban land use/cover changes as well as the driving forces that influence urbanization were analysed. In addition, the potential implications of urban land use/cover changes on future sustainable urban development were discussed. The urban land use/cover change results revealed that built-up land increased over 10 times (from about 11.6 to 118 km²) between 1989 and 2014. Rapid urbanization was driven by accessibility (by land, air, and water), the status of Dhaka as the country’s capital city, various key legislations, and population and economic growth. The simulated urban land use/cover changes indicated that built-up areas would increase to approximately 169.7 km² by 2030. The observed and simulated urban land use/cover changes provide a broad spatial overview, which can be used to understand current and future built-up expansion in Dhaka Metropolis. The results in this chapter can be used to gain useful insights, which can potentially address a number of key urban issues such as high population density, insufficient land for building, the increase in urban poor, traffic congestion, etc. Taking into consideration the current urban growth scenario, both the local and national government need to focus on the sustainable urban development of Dhaka Metropolis.

This chapter analyzes the origin and brief history of the Kathmandu Metropolitan Area (KMA), the national capital of Nepal, which forms the core of the nation’s most populous metropolitan area. It examines the urban primacy, urban land use/cover change patterns, and driving forces that influence the rapid urbanization of the KMA. In addition, it discusses the prospective implications of these elements for the future sustainable urban development of the metropolitan area. The KMA has been important economically, administratively, and politically for hundreds of years. During the past 25 years (1989–2014), the KMA has experienced tremendous growth that is expected to continue through 2030. These results suggest that the current urban development process is in a critical stage in which urban and fringe frontier areas will create unprecedented stress on land resources that will be manifested in river and forest ecosystems and other environmentally sensitive areas. These changes are driven by various interrelated physiographic as well as socioeconomic factors. Similar to many developing cities, the KMA has issues of poor management of urban expansion and infrastructure as well as disaster preparedness, resulting in environmental and socioeconomic consequences. However, possibilities are available for improving the urban environment and managing the potential land demands in the metropolitan area through the strict enforcement of sustainable urban development policies and changes in the current urbanization trend. The Gorkha earthquake on April 25, 2015, in Kathmandu has afforded an opportunity to revitalize the city. If such improvement measures are implemented, living conditions will be improved, enabling the KMA to become a world-class city.

Tehran Metropolitan Area is the primary urban center of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the home of the country’s capital city, Tehran City. This chapter examines the spatiotemporal patterns of urban land changes, i.e., changes from non-built-up to built-up lands, in Tehran Metropolitan Area in recent decades, including the potential future urban land changes. The analysis revealed that the area of built-up lands in the study area has increased more than threefold over the past 26 years (1988–2014). The patches of built-up lands in the area have also become more fragmented. The geographic location, landscape characteristics and road network of Tehran Metropolitan Area, including its population growth and status as the primary urban center in the country and home of the country’s capital city, are hypothesized to be among the key factors influencing the spatiotemporal patterns of urban land changes and the overall urban development of the area. The simulated urban land changes indicated that the area of built-up lands would continue to increase in the future (2014–2030) under the influence of continuous expansion and an infill urban development pattern. The intensifying pressure of urbanization due to continuous population growth and urban land changes poses many challenges that need to be considered in sustainable urban development and landscape planning.

Globally, the demand for timely land use/cover change information has increased over the past decades given the rapid pace of urbanization. The objective of this chapter was to analyze observed and simulated land use/cover changes between 1989 and 2030 in Dakar Metropolitan Area. The land use/cover maps for 1989, 1999, 2010, and 2014 indicated that built-up areas increased substantially over the study period. Generally, built-up expanded during the “1989–1999” and “2010–2014” epochs, while built-up expansion slowed down during the “1999–2010” epoch. Built-up growth in Dakar Metropolitan Area was characterized by a combination of sprawl and densification. Future land use/cover simulations (up to 2030) indicated that the current land use/cover change trends such as the increase in built-up areas and decrease in non-built-up areas as well as urban sprawl would continue to persist. The observed and simulated land use/cover changes provide a panoramic view of built-up expansion as well as a simulated urban growth scenario for Dakar Metropolitan Area. These results convey important insights about urban expansion, which could potentially be used to implement the “2035 Dakar Urban Masterplan.”

The objective of this chapter was to analyze observed and projected land use/cover changes between 1990 and 2030 in Bamako Metropolitan Area. The land use/cover change analysis revealed significant built-up expansion for the “1990–2000” and “2010–2014” epochs, while built-up expansion slowed down during the “2000–2010” epoch. Built-up growth in Bamako Metropolitan Area was characterized by a low-density urban sprawl moving outward from the urban core into the surrounding rural areas. Generally, vacant lands in the surrounding rural areas were converted to residential and urban land uses. Future land use/cover simulations (up to 2030) indicated that the current land use/cover change trends, such as the increase in built-up areas and decrease in non-built-up areas as well as low-density urban sprawl, would continue to persist. The observed and simulated land use/cover changes provide an overview of built-up expansion as well as a simulated urban growth scenario for Bamako Metropolitan Area. This could potentially assist decision-makers with general built-up change information that can be used to guide sustainable urban development in Bamako Metropolitan Area.

This chapter examines the origin and brief history of Nairobi Metropolitan Area, which is Kenya’s principal economic and cultural center and one of the largest and fastest growing cities in Africa. This chapter looks at the urban primacy, urban land use/cover change patterns, and the factors that have influenced the urbanization of Nairobi, as well as the potential implications of these factors to the future urban development of this Metropolitan. Nairobi is an example of an African colonial city, with colonial origins, which shaped its structure and management at the time of Kenya’s transition to independence. Nairobi was born of the European colonial project and was first established as a transportation center, before it grew to become an administrative center. Like other African cities, after independence Nairobi was characterized by a rapid increase in rural to urban migration, accompanied by the proliferation of small-scale trade and commodity production. Nairobi has grown remarkably, with its urbanization driven by various interrelated factors. Land use/cover change analysis for Nairobi Metropolitan Area shows that the built-up areas would continue to increase at an average annual rate of change of 1.49 km²/year. The results of the landscape pattern analysis show that built-up land would be more aggregated but with disconnected, nonlinear, and complex patches of built-up land as Nairobi continues to expand. Nairobi’s accessibility as the regional hub, its relative position as the gateway to eastern African region, its status as the country’s capital, the adoption of various urban development strategies, and its population and economic growth, together, have combined to drive its urban development. Nairobi is, however, faced by a myriad of urban challenges that need to be taken into consideration in its future development including traffic congestion, inadequate urban housing, mushrooming slums, urban poor, unemployment, delinquency, crime, unavailability of clean water, inadequate drainage and sanitation, lack of adequate public transport, environmental degradation, and disaster unpreparedness. The Government of Kenya has embarked on an ambitious Nairobi Metro 2030 vision to spatially redefine the Nairobi Metropolitan Area and create a world-class city region which is envisaged to generate sustainable wealth and quality of life for its residents, investors, and visitors. It is hoped that this will be realized so that Nairobi can become a world-class metropolitan.

This chapter traces the origin and brief history of Lilongwe, the capital of Malawi in southern Africa. Its primacy in the urban landscape of the country is assessed by examining the urban land use/cover change patterns and the driving forces that are influencing its rapid urbanization. Lilongwe started off as a dusty colonial town which became an administrative center by 1904. Its growth had been slow until it became the capital in 1975 when built-up area grew sevenfold from 5.08 km² in 1990 to 34.73 km² in 2013. Furthermore, it is projected that its built-up area would have increased from 34.73 km² in 2013 to 41.24 km² by 2020 and 53.08 km² by 2030, respectively. Much of this growth is due to rural–urban migration, natural increase, and reclassification of settlements apart from being physically central, making it easily accessible. However, a significant portion (16–21%) of this growth has been occurring in informal settlements. As such, the urbanization of Lilongwe has been, to a large extent, unsustainable as the proportion of the urban poor is relatively high not just in monetary terms but also along the lines of access to basic urban services. All is not lost, however, for the primate city as the growth of informal settlements continues to decrease over the years. While this improvement is observed despite having several loopholes in the legal framework to support proper urban planning, it is only hoped that the strategic plans outlined for the city get implemented.

Sustainable urban planning and development require reliable and timely land use/cover change information. The objective of this chapter was to analyze observed and simulated land use/cover changes between 1990 and 2030. Based on land use/cover maps for 1990, 2002, 2009, and 2014, built-up areas increased substantially, while non-built-up areas decreased over the study period. The land use/cover change analysis revealed significant built-up expansion for the “1990–2002” epoch. However, built-up expansion slowed down during the “2002–2009” and “2009–2014” epochs. The built-up growth pattern and the spatial/landscape metrics revealed that infill, extension, and leapfrog developments were occurring in the study area. Future land use/cover simulations (up to 2030) indicated that the current land use/cover change trends such as the increase in built-up areas and decrease in non-built-up areas would continue to persist unless sustainable urban development policies are implemented. The observed and simulated land use/cover changes provide a synoptic view of built-up expansion as well as a plausible future urban growth scenario for Harare Metropolitan Area. This could potentially assist decision-makers with general built-up change information, which can be used to guide strategic sustainable urban land use planning and development for Harare Metropolitan Area.

The purpose of this chapter is to examine observed and projected land use/cover changes for Johannesburg based on remote sensing and GIS analysis. In addition, the driving forces that influence urbanization as well as the potential implications of urban land use/cover changes on future sustainable urban development in Johannesburg are discussed. The land use/cover change results indicated that built-up areas increased substantially between 1990 and 2014. The rapid increase in built-up areas was attributed to a number of driving factors such as the historical and recent developments in the mining industry, government urban policies, rural-urban migration, and urban land market changes. The observed and projected land use/cover changes provide valuable insights, which can be used to guide sustainable urban development in Johannesburg. This is important given the current distortions in land access and supply as well as poor provision of urban services in Johannesburg.

This chapter examines and compares the temporal and spatial patterns of urban land changes (ULCs), i.e., changes from non-built-up to built-up lands, in 15 major cities (metropolitan areas) in the developing Asia and Africa (Asia: Beijing, Manila, Jakarta, Hanoi, Bangkok, Yangon, Dhaka, Kathmandu, and Tehran; Africa: Dakar, Bamako, Nairobi, Lilongwe, Harare, and Johannesburg) based on remote sensing-derived urban land use/land cover (LULC) maps (c. 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2014) and GIS-simulated LULC maps (2020 and 2030). We used the land change intensity analysis technique to examine how the extent and rate of ULCs vary across time intervals. For the analysis of the spatial patterns of ULCs, we used spatial metrics. Between 1990 and 2014, Beijing, Bangkok, and Johannesburg had the highest gain of built-up in terms of area, whereas Bamako, Dhaka, and Lilongwe had the highest percentage increase. Five of the top seven cities in terms of total gain of built-up came from Asia, while four of the top seven cities in terms of total percentage came from Africa. Although some cities across Asia and Africa showed either stable or fluctuating intensities of ULCs, most of the cities had intensifying ULCs. During the same period, majority of the cities have become more fragmented. However, the simulated future urban LULC maps (2020 and 2030) indicated that their fragmented or diffused patches of built-up lands would eventually coalesce and result in more aggregated urban landscapes. In bigger cities such as Beijing, Manila, Bangkok, and Jakarta, ULCs are already occurring and moving away from the city center, whereas in smaller cities such as Bamako, Kathmandu, and Lilongwe, ULCs are still largely concentrated in closer proximities to the city center. We hypothesize that the bigger cities might have already undergone through the alternating process of diffusion–coalescence many times, whereas the smaller cities are still in the early stages of this cyclic process.

This chapter discusses the future of metropolises in the developing Asia and Africa in the context of five themes: (1) urbanization in developing countries; (2) metropolitanization; (3) nodes in the national urban system; (4) nodes in the world urban system; and (5) developing methodology and future research challenges. First, the metropolises of developing Asia and Africa are experiencing rapid urbanization, giving rise to an urban population explosion. Second, as the metropolitan area expands, the spatial pattern gradually changes from a unipolar structure, where the city center is the urban core, toward a multipolar structure, which incorporates peripheral areas. Third, when considering the country’s economic growth as a whole, concentrating economic functions in the capital appears to be the most efficient strategy in the short term. However, excessive concentration in the capital can widen the gap between the capital and local areas, which in turn affects regional cities through a straw effect. Fourth, the top cities around the world today that serve as the nodes in the world urban system are now referred to as world cities. And fifth, remote sensing and GIS are among the emerging geospatial tools and techniques today for advancing urban studies in the geographical context.