3. Vehicle Technology Impact Assessment Model for Indonesia (VEIA-ID): Concept and First Results

Energy use and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, key impacts of transport sector activities in Indonesia, need to be accurately estimated, as they influence energy security, Indonesia’s commitment to mitigate climate change, and policy development. The Vehicle Technology Impact Assessment Model for Indonesia (VEIA-ID) has the capacity to create a long-term outlook of transport demand, vehicle stock, energy use, and CO₂ emissions of two transport modes (i.e., cars and road freight vehicles) and to measure the impacts of various transport and energy policies. Using economic and demographic assumptions, it endogenously projects transport demand and is able to split it into different transport modes. It uses existing data to project fleet dynamics, fuel consumption, and CO₂ emissions up to 2050. In the baseline scenario, energy consumption from cars and road freight vehicles would grow 4 times from 33 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2020 to 132 Mtoe in 2050, and CO₂ emissions would rise from 95 million tons to 380 million tons during that same period. Policies such as carbon taxing, motorway tolls, and improvement of road freight logistics have the ability to reduce fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions.