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Published in:
2015 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
When Evidence Is Silent
Author : Erika Mansnerus
Published in: Modelling in Public Health Research: How Mathematical Techniques Keep Us Healthy
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan UK
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During the 2009 pandemic outbreak, modelling took place in a time-pressured reality. A sense of urgency to make decisions was challenged by the lack of data. Evidence was silent and weak, and modellers did their best to bridge the gaps. In this chapter we analyse these ‘known unknowns’, factors of which we have very limited understanding at the beginning of modelling. These factors can be related to the microbiology of the pathogen or to the safety of the pharmaceutical interventions, for example. Mansnerus looks at how modelling methods alleviate unknowing in the context of pandemic risk assessment.