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Knowledge and Information Systems
Published in: Knowledge and Information Systems 2/2015

01-05-2015 | Regular Paper

A model for revocation forecasting in public-key infrastructures

Authors: Carlos Gañán, Jorge Mata-Díaz, Jose L. Muñoz, Oscar Esparza, Juanjo Alins

Published in: Knowledge and Information Systems | Issue 2/2015

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Abstract

One of the hardest tasks of a certification infrastructure is to manage revocation. This process consists in collecting and making the revocation status of certificates available to users. Research on this topic has focused on the trade-offs that different revocation mechanisms offer. Much less effort has been conducted to understand and model real-world revocation processes. For this reason, in this paper, we present a novel analysis of real-world collected revocation data and we propose a revocation prediction model. The model uses an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Our prediction model enables certification authorities to forecast the number of revoked certificates in short term.
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Footnotes
1
Note that this survey mainly operates a crawler finding, and reporting on the SSL certificates it locates in the wild. Hence, we only use these data to corroborate that we are covering most of the SSL market.
 
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Metadata
Title
A model for revocation forecasting in public-key infrastructures
Authors
Carlos Gañán
Jorge Mata-Díaz
Jose L. Muñoz
Oscar Esparza
Juanjo Alins
Publication date
01-05-2015
Publisher
Springer London
Published in
Knowledge and Information Systems / Issue 2/2015
Print ISSN: 0219-1377
Electronic ISSN: 0219-3116
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10115-014-0735-1

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