Skip to main content
Top
Published in: Journal of Combinatorial Optimization 2/2023

01-03-2023

An equilibrium analysis of the impact of real estate price volatility on macroeconomics based on ant colony algorithm

Authors: Zhou Jie, Chai Hua Qi

Published in: Journal of Combinatorial Optimization | Issue 2/2023

Log in

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

In view of the large subjective arbitrariness of traditional real estate appraisal methods, through analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) model for real estate appraisal, the use of ant colony algorithm is proposed for the parameter selection problem (ACO) is optimized, and a real estate valuation model based on ant colony algorithm optimization least square support vector machine (ACO-LS-SVM) is established after integration. On this basis, in order to study the impact of real estate price fluctuations on the macroeconomic equilibrium, this paper studies the impact of real estate price fluctuations on my country’s macroeconomic and sectoral economies by constructing a computable general equilibrium model. The main findings are as follows: the output of various industries and the direction of changes in real estate prices are consistent, but industries such as heavy industry, extractive industries, and real estate are relatively affected; the rise and fall of real estate prices have caused the income of all residents to decline, but each income The impacts on urban residents of different ranks are not the same, and the incomes of the government and enterprises are in the same direction as the changes in real estate prices. The efficiency of the predicted price of real estate appraisal technique is 4.08% and the average relative error is 1.78%. On the whole, the increase in real estate prices has a greater driving effect on economic growth, but the negative impact of a price drop of the same magnitude is greater.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
go back to reference Abdollahi H (2020) A novel hybrid model for forecasting crude oil price based on time series decomposition. Appl Energy 267:115035CrossRef Abdollahi H (2020) A novel hybrid model for forecasting crude oil price based on time series decomposition. Appl Energy 267:115035CrossRef
go back to reference Ahmad MA, Alrjoub AMS, Alrabba HM (2018) The effect of dividend policy on stock price volatility: empirical evidence from amman stock exchange. Academy Account Financ Stud J 22(2):1–8 Ahmad MA, Alrjoub AMS, Alrabba HM (2018) The effect of dividend policy on stock price volatility: empirical evidence from amman stock exchange. Academy Account Financ Stud J 22(2):1–8
go back to reference Alola AA (2021) The dynamics of crude oil price and the real estate market in Saudi Arabia: a Markov-switching approach. J Public Aff 21(2):e2178CrossRef Alola AA (2021) The dynamics of crude oil price and the real estate market in Saudi Arabia: a Markov-switching approach. J Public Aff 21(2):e2178CrossRef
go back to reference Ausloos M, Zhang Y, Dhesi G (2020) Stock index futures trading impact on spot price volatility. The CSI 300 studied with a TGARCH model. Expert Syst Appl 160:113688CrossRef Ausloos M, Zhang Y, Dhesi G (2020) Stock index futures trading impact on spot price volatility. The CSI 300 studied with a TGARCH model. Expert Syst Appl 160:113688CrossRef
go back to reference Bórawski P, Bełdycka-Bórawska A, Szymańska EJ, Jankowski KJ, Dunn JW (2019) Price volatility of agricultural land in Poland in the context of the European Union. Land Use Policy 82:486–496CrossRef Bórawski P, Bełdycka-Bórawska A, Szymańska EJ, Jankowski KJ, Dunn JW (2019) Price volatility of agricultural land in Poland in the context of the European Union. Land Use Policy 82:486–496CrossRef
go back to reference Chen H (2017) Real estate transfer taxes and housing price volatility in the United States. Int Real Estate Rev 20(2):207–219CrossRef Chen H (2017) Real estate transfer taxes and housing price volatility in the United States. Int Real Estate Rev 20(2):207–219CrossRef
go back to reference Chen J, Hui ECM, Seiler MJ, Zhang H (2018) Household tenure choice and housing price volatility under a binding home-purchase limit policy constraint. J Hous Econ 41:124–134CrossRef Chen J, Hui ECM, Seiler MJ, Zhang H (2018) Household tenure choice and housing price volatility under a binding home-purchase limit policy constraint. J Hous Econ 41:124–134CrossRef
go back to reference Deng Y, Girardin E, Joyeux R (2018) Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: a sequential modelling strategy. China Econ Rev 48:205–222CrossRef Deng Y, Girardin E, Joyeux R (2018) Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: a sequential modelling strategy. China Econ Rev 48:205–222CrossRef
go back to reference Elder J (2019) Oil price volatility and real options: 35 years of evidence. J Futur Mark 39(12):1549–1564CrossRef Elder J (2019) Oil price volatility and real options: 35 years of evidence. J Futur Mark 39(12):1549–1564CrossRef
go back to reference Fan Y, Yang Z, Yavas A (2019) Understanding real estate price dynamics: the case of housing prices in five major cities of China✰. J Hous Econ 43:37–55CrossRef Fan Y, Yang Z, Yavas A (2019) Understanding real estate price dynamics: the case of housing prices in five major cities of China✰. J Hous Econ 43:37–55CrossRef
go back to reference Gupta R, Lau CKM, Nyakabawo W (2020) Predicting aggregate and state-level US house price volatility: the role of sentiment. J Rev Global Econ 9:30–46CrossRef Gupta R, Lau CKM, Nyakabawo W (2020) Predicting aggregate and state-level US house price volatility: the role of sentiment. J Rev Global Econ 9:30–46CrossRef
go back to reference Kawaguchi Y, Sa-Aadu J, Shilling JD (2017) REIT stock price volatility and the effects of leverage. Real Estate Econ 45(2):452–477CrossRef Kawaguchi Y, Sa-Aadu J, Shilling JD (2017) REIT stock price volatility and the effects of leverage. Real Estate Econ 45(2):452–477CrossRef
go back to reference Lee CL, Stevenson S, Lee ML (2018) Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk. Account Finance 58:311–342CrossRef Lee CL, Stevenson S, Lee ML (2018) Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk. Account Finance 58:311–342CrossRef
go back to reference Luo X, Qin S (2017) Oil price uncertainty and Chinese stock returns: new evidence from the oil volatility index. Financ Res Lett 20:29–34CrossRef Luo X, Qin S (2017) Oil price uncertainty and Chinese stock returns: new evidence from the oil volatility index. Financ Res Lett 20:29–34CrossRef
go back to reference Ma F, Liu J, Wahab MIM, Zhang Y (2018) Forecasting the aggregate oil price volatility in a data-rich environment. Econ Model 72:320–332CrossRef Ma F, Liu J, Wahab MIM, Zhang Y (2018) Forecasting the aggregate oil price volatility in a data-rich environment. Econ Model 72:320–332CrossRef
go back to reference Mirza N, Naqvi B, Rahat B, Rizvi SKA (2020) Price reaction, volatility timing and funds’ performance during Covid-19. Financ Res Lett 36:101657CrossRef Mirza N, Naqvi B, Rahat B, Rizvi SKA (2020) Price reaction, volatility timing and funds’ performance during Covid-19. Financ Res Lett 36:101657CrossRef
go back to reference Nayak RK, Mishra D, Rath AK (2019) An optimized SVM-k-NN currency exchange forecasting model for Indian currency market. Neural Comput Appl 31(7):2995–3021CrossRef Nayak RK, Mishra D, Rath AK (2019) An optimized SVM-k-NN currency exchange forecasting model for Indian currency market. Neural Comput Appl 31(7):2995–3021CrossRef
go back to reference Pishnamazi M, Babanezhad M, Nakhjiri AT, Rezakazemi M, Marjani A, Shirazian S (2020) ANFIS grid partition framework with difference between two sigmoidal membership functions structure for validation of nanofluid flow. Sci Rep 10(1):1–11CrossRef Pishnamazi M, Babanezhad M, Nakhjiri AT, Rezakazemi M, Marjani A, Shirazian S (2020) ANFIS grid partition framework with difference between two sigmoidal membership functions structure for validation of nanofluid flow. Sci Rep 10(1):1–11CrossRef
go back to reference Prasad R, Ali M, Kwan P, Khan H (2019) Designing a multi-stage multivariate empirical mode decomposition coupled with ant colony optimization and random forest model to forecast monthly solar radiation. Appl Energy 236:778–792CrossRef Prasad R, Ali M, Kwan P, Khan H (2019) Designing a multi-stage multivariate empirical mode decomposition coupled with ant colony optimization and random forest model to forecast monthly solar radiation. Appl Energy 236:778–792CrossRef
go back to reference Ramalingam S, Sujatha P (2018) An Extensive work on stock price prediction using ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO-SPP). Int J Intell Eng Syst 11:85–94 Ramalingam S, Sujatha P (2018) An Extensive work on stock price prediction using ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO-SPP). Int J Intell Eng Syst 11:85–94
go back to reference Rivas R, Patil D, Hristidis V, Barr JR, Srinivasan N (2019) The impact of colleges and hospitals to local real estate markets. J Big Data 6(1):1–24CrossRef Rivas R, Patil D, Hristidis V, Barr JR, Srinivasan N (2019) The impact of colleges and hospitals to local real estate markets. J Big Data 6(1):1–24CrossRef
go back to reference Savva CS, Michail NA (2017) Modelling house price volatility states in Cyprus with switching ARCH models. Cyprus Econ Policy Rev 11(1):69–82 Savva CS, Michail NA (2017) Modelling house price volatility states in Cyprus with switching ARCH models. Cyprus Econ Policy Rev 11(1):69–82
go back to reference Wang D, Yue C, Wei S, Lv J (2017) Performance analysis of four decomposition-ensemble models for one-day-ahead agricultural commodity futures price forecasting. Algorithms 10(3):108MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Wang D, Yue C, Wei S, Lv J (2017) Performance analysis of four decomposition-ensemble models for one-day-ahead agricultural commodity futures price forecasting. Algorithms 10(3):108MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
Metadata
Title
An equilibrium analysis of the impact of real estate price volatility on macroeconomics based on ant colony algorithm
Authors
Zhou Jie
Chai Hua Qi
Publication date
01-03-2023
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Journal of Combinatorial Optimization / Issue 2/2023
Print ISSN: 1382-6905
Electronic ISSN: 1573-2886
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10878-023-00995-x

Other articles of this Issue 2/2023

Journal of Combinatorial Optimization 2/2023 Go to the issue

Premium Partner