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Geotechnical and Geological Engineering

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24-12-2022 | Original Paper

Analysis of Overall Reliability of Embankment Dam for Steady-State Seepage

Authors: Kelifa Shirago, Democracy Dirate, Demoze Kasahun

Published in: Geotechnical and Geological Engineering | Issue 3/2023

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Abstract

The reliability method of slope stability analysis, unlike the deterministic approach, received a series of attention to evaluating the performance of the slope, this method considered uncertainties of the random variables of the soil parameters. This study considered steady-state seepage conditions and the soil variability resulting from the inevitable uncertainties. Uncertainties were managed by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for 1000 iterations integrated into Slide 6 software. Both normal and lognormal probability distributions were considered for the most likely value of the soil parameters and the standard deviation of each soil parameter. The standard deviation for each soil was expressed with the soil's coefficient of variation (COV). For the random variable of each of the soil parameters, the stability analysis of the dam by the Morgenstern-price method gave a mean factor of safety (FS) of 1.202, probability of failure (PF) of 0.217% or reliability (R) of 99.783%, reliability index (RI) of 2.608 and 2.827 respectively for a normal and lognormal distribution. Sensitivity analysis showed that FS is more sensitive to the shell material's friction angle (ϕ) than other soil parameters. Moreover, the effect of the surcharge on the probabilistic stability of the dam showed that PF increased and R decreased simultaneously with an increased surcharge load.

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Title: Analysis of Overall Reliability of Embankment Dam for Steady-State Seepage
Authors: Kelifa Shirago
Democracy Dirate
Demoze Kasahun
Publication date: 24-12-2022
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Published in: Geotechnical and Geological Engineering / Issue 3/2023
Print ISSN: 0960-3182
Electronic ISSN: 1573-1529
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-022-02362-9

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