Beating the (White) House: How a “Rogue” Iran Broke Free from the “Axis of Evil” and Became an Antifragile State

For the past decade, the globalized world has been struggling to adapt to an abnormal degree of uncertainty. Amidst a global pandemic, contemporary international relations are increasingly resembling trying to play roulette at a casino in the middle of an earthquake—all bets are off. For many years, different authors have consistently predicted the collapse of the post-revolutionary Iranian regime—and have consistently failed. One could say that the demise of the Iranian regime has become the most unexpected event that can be expected in the Middle East. By applying the concept of antifragility first developed by Nassim Taleb, the present chapter proposes that this event, although repeatedly forecast, has not occurred because Iran has become an antifragile State: a country with the ability to positively leverage a complex set of circumstances amidst excruciating uncertainty. Recalling that Iran was designated a State sponsoring international terrorism, later described as a “rogue State” bent on developing nuclear weapons and part of an “axis of evil”, the present chapter discusses how the regime devised a whole-of-society strategy leveraging the Iranian armed forces whereby three elements—ideology, ingenuity and asymmetry—are deployed in a variable geometry. Firstly, the issue will be framed in the context of recent events, followed by an assessment of U.S. foreign policy and the “rogue State” discourse. Secondly, the chapter elaborates further on the idea of a whole-of-society strategy focusing on the three elements of Iran’s antifragility toolbox with special consideration given to the role played by Iranian armed forces. Finally, a set of conclusions is proposed in view of the most recent geopolitical developments.