Causal effect analysis-based intrusion detection system for IoT applications

Intrusion detection systems (IDSs) are employed at various levels in the network to either detect or prevent an intrusion that could cause irrecoverable data damage in IoT applications. Nowadays, different machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence techniques are used to develop prediction models for IDS. However, existing ML-based detection models mostly rely on associative features to determine the relationship between attacks and traffic variables. These features failed to discern correlation from causality, and thus, many times, they generated poor performance on the testing data. The method of drawing causal inferences can be helpful to researchers in focusing on the causes of the intrusion rather than the correlation of the attributes, which provide only limited information. However, the method of drawing causal inferences has few to no implementations in the IDS. This paper explores using a causal analysis method, the Bayesian causal network for the IDS, and attempts to determine the significant attributes that can lead to an accurate prediction model for the IDS. The presented causal inference method is validated via an experimental analysis of the message queuing telemetry transport protocol dataset. The result shows that the Bayesian network implementation of causal inference has achieved an average accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score of 99.8%, 99.4%, 98.89%, and 99.13%, respectively, for different considered attack scenarios. The analysis of the results shows that the performance of the presented method is equivalent to or better than other machine learning solutions.