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2019 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

6. Climate Change and the Energy Sector in Brazil

Authors : Roberto Schaeffer, André F. P. Lucena, Isabella V. L. Costa, Eveline Vásquez, Cindy Viviescas, Vanessa Huback

Published in: Climate Change Risks in Brazil

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Among the contributors to the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG), the energy sector stands out as an important climate change driving force. On the other hand, the energy sector is vulnerable to changes in climate. This is especially true for renewable energy sources, which show higher vulnerability when compared to non-renewable sources like coal, oil and gas. Paradoxically, thus, the options to reduce GHG emissions from energy combustion are those that are more exposed to the very impacts of those emissions. Therefore, it is important to assess the vulnerability of the energy system, in general and of renewable energy in particular, to climate change. The objective of this chapter is to assess what would be the effects of extreme climate change, in other words, with average temperature increase of over 4 °C, on the Brazilian energy system in different settings. This chapter is based on a review of climate change impact studies that have been conducted for Brazil. Since the Brazilian power sector is highly based on hydropower, most studies have focused on climate change impacts on hydropower. The analysis shows that in extreme climate scenarios a vicious cycle would emerge. An increase in demand for electricity would result from global warming, while energy production would fall short in its supply, as temperature increases would affect renewable sources mostly. These results do not depend on future settings for the Brazilian energy system, as renewable sources should remain predominant in the medium-long term.

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previous chapter Biodiversity Sector: Risks of Temperature Increase to Biodiversity and Ecosystems
next chapter Increase Risk of Drought in the Semiarid Lands of Northeast Brazil Due to Regional Warming above 4 °C
Footnotes
1
The amount of energy in the wind is proportionate to the wind speed elevated to the cube, which indicates how speed variations may have significant effects on the volume of available power (Pryor & Barthelmie, 2010).
 
2
HadRM3P is a model of the regional climate modelling system PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) of the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom, which has a 50 km horizontal resolution. HadAM3P is a global climate model used for downscaling climate scenarios.
 
3
SWAT is a public domain tool developed for studying and predicting outflow, sediment production, pollutant load and water quality in water basins.
 
4
Firm energy may be defined for a hydroelectric system as the biggest amount of energy obtained, considering the hydrological scenario, generally based on the historical experience. Alternatively, it may be defined as the biggest amount of energy produced in a critical period, when the system’s storage capacity goes from the maximum to the minimum, without intermediate refilling (CEPEL, 2007). In other words, it is the period when the energy accumulated in reservoirs is depleted without being fully replaced.
 
5
Modelo de Simulação a Usinas Individualizadas de Subsistemas Hidrotérmicos Interligados (Model for Simulation of individuas Power Plants in Hydrothermal Interconnected Systems), developed by CEPEL (2007).
 
6
The secured energy (EASS) represents the amount that a generation park can produce with 5 per cent of energy risk deficit.
 
7
Model developed by CEPEL and adopted by the Brazilian electricity sector to represent the medium and long term hydrothermal planning problem.
 
8
This, however, has not been the case over the last few years, when thermal power generation capacity has been operating on a more constant basis in Brazil.
 
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Metadata
Title
Climate Change and the Energy Sector in Brazil
Authors
Roberto Schaeffer
André F. P. Lucena
Isabella V. L. Costa
Eveline Vásquez
Cindy Viviescas
Vanessa Huback
Copyright Year
2019
Book
Climate Change Risks in Brazil

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-92880-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-92881-4

Copyright Year: 2019

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_6