3. Complexity Theory and Forest Resource Economics

A complex systems approach is used to test economic and moral values of actors, and their interactions with institutions towards sustainable forest management (SFM) in Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Chaos theory interpretations reveal that formal and informal organizations and institutions they promote serve as attractors that shape evolving preferences of actors—foresters, environmentalists, park authorities, entrepreneurs, and local communities—towards SFM. Diverse and dynamic preferences of heterogeneous actors including both self-interest and altruistic behaviors are observed; particularly, many economic and moral values oscillate in positive basin of attraction/optimization—indicating their complimentary nature. Thus, the economic agents presented in this analysis behave in a manner of the so called ‘socially-rational agent’, rather than self-interest maximizing agents of the Faustmann’s model. Institutionally, there are informal advocacy coalitions with actors from different formal work organizations, but with shared values towards SFM. This is coupled with strong positive valuation of co-operative (participatory and collaborative) arrangements of SFM vis-à-vis conventional centralized forest management. While SFM values limit cycles oscillate in more stable and desirable basins of attraction, institutions limit cycles show more chaos. The latter outcome suggests that continued SFM institutional reforms, rather that mere value sensitization, are critical ingredients towards SFM.