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Neural Computing and Applications
Published in: Neural Computing and Applications 20/2020

16-03-2020 | Review Article

Deep learning architecture to predict daily hospital admissions

Authors: Ricardo Navares, José L. Aznarte

Published in: Neural Computing and Applications | Issue 20/2020

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Abstract

Air pollution and airborne pollen play a key role in respiratory and circulatory disorders and thus have a direct relation to hospital admissions for these causes. Knowing in advance the influx of patients to emergency services allows clinical institutions to optimize resources and to improve their service. Since the variables influencing respiratory and circulatory-related hospital admissions belong to fields such aerobiology or meteorology, we aim for a data-based system which is able to predict admissions without a priori assumptions. Given the number and distribution of observation stations (meteorological, pollen and chemical pollution stations and hospital), previous approaches generate many model-dependent systems that need to be combined in order to obtain the full representation of future environmental conditions. A unified approach able to extract all temporal dynamics as well as all spatial relations would allow a better representation of the aforementioned conditions and consequently a more precise hospital admissions forecast. The proposed system is based on a specific neural network topology of long short-term memories and convolutional neural networks to obtain the spatio-temporal relations between all independent and target variables. It was applied to forecast daily hospital admissions due to respiratory- and circulatory-related disorders. The proposal outperforms the benchmark approaches by reducing as an average the prediction error by 28% and 20% for the circulatory and respiratory cases, respectively. Consequently, the system extracts all relevant information without specific field knowledge and provides accurate hospital admissions forecasts.
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Metadata
Title
Deep learning architecture to predict daily hospital admissions
Authors
Ricardo Navares
José L. Aznarte
Publication date
16-03-2020
Publisher
Springer London
Published in
Neural Computing and Applications / Issue 20/2020
Print ISSN: 0941-0643
Electronic ISSN: 1433-3058
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-020-04840-8

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