Energy, Transport, & the Environment

Growing global demand for energy as well as recent geopolitical and technical concerns and issues have served to move energy security up the policy agenda. At the same time the challenge of stabilising greenhouse gas emissions at “safe” levels remains a clear scientific imperative. It is time to stop ‘polishing the 2050 diamond’ and to take practical steps today towards a lower carbon, secure energy future. Moving to action is more important than ever. We must now take the practical steps available to us that can begin to make a material impact on meeting both climate and energy concerns affordably. Pathways for both transport and power are available to us today that can radically reduce emissions without threatening energy security and at a reasonable cost to consumers. The geopolitical relationships necessary to accelerate progress must also be leveraged to accelerate alignment and convergence towards a coherent set of global energy relationships and markets which enable economic progress and stability.

Planet Earth goes back billions of years, and the first forms of life appeared long ago, with Modern Man arriving only 200,000 years ago. Agriculture changed his the way of life, as communities acquired land rights, leading to trade and the use of money. They faced the consequences of depleting their natural resources, prompting conflict. For most of history, energy needs were met mainly by Man’s own muscles, but over the last two centuries he has tapped new sources from coal, followed by oil and gas, that changed the world radically, allowing the population to grow 10-fold. But these are finite natural resources, formed in the geological past, which means that they are subject to depletion. The

Second Half

of the Oil Age, which now dawns as production declines, may be marked by a contraction to match the expansion of the

First Half

. A debate rages as to the precise date of peak production, with much confusion from ambiguous resource definitions and lax reporting, but misses the point when what matters is the vision of the long decline on the other side of it. The transition is a turning point of historic magnitude, likely to be associated with much social, economic and political tension before people learn how to adapt. It is by all means an important subject.

Peak oil theory predicts that global oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most proponents of the theory imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. To understand what may happen if the proponents of peak oil theory are right, I analyze the historical experience of countries that have gone through a comparable experience. Japan (1918–1945), North Korea (1990s) and Cuba (1990s) have all been facing severe oil supply disruptions in the order of 20% or more. Despite the unique features of each case, it is possible to derive clues on how different parts of the world would react to a global energy crunch. The historical record suggests at least three possible peak oil trajectories: predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation.

This chapter addresses how technological innovation in agribusiness should strengthen the synergies among different feedstock production systems, lower carbon footprint and create new business ventures based on bioenergy and bioproducts. We draw on examples from sugarcane from Brazil, where multiple feedstock production systems are being deployed for the production of bioenergy, biofuels and bioproducts, creating operational models for biorefineries. We make the case that sustainable mobility frameworks based on biofuels depend more on how agricultural landscapes are used, than on the feedstock conversion systems themselves. The production of multiple feedstock products at landscape level is crucial for sustainable mobility because it optimizes land use, diversifies the sources of income from farmers, reduces the food versus fuel competition and reduces biofuel carbon footprint. We also present an assessment of the biodiesel program in Brazil, which was launched in 2005 and is currently blended with diesel at a mandatory 5% level. By November 1, 2011, the world population will have reached 7 billion people and more likely by 2050, 9 billion, a demographic turning point as well as a major shift in global geopolitics and consumption patterns of food, energy, water and other resources. The challenges that this presents will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future, while climatic instability and increased severity of pests and disease will affect our capacity to produce goods and services. Agriculture must be at the center of supplying food in quantity and quality necessary to feed an aging population, with people living longer and healthier lives. But several looming challenges remain which must be addressed for agriculture to be successful in fulfilling these needs in a sustainable manner and requires a global coordinated effort. Feeding 9 billion people in 2050 will require the development of new agribusiness models, new technologies and innovative ways of delivering an array of bioproducts from multi-functional agricultural landscapes. Innovation at different feedstock chains can also mitigate price volatility associated with the uncertainties of single product delivery, and the development of competencies and distinctiveness of the bioenergy and bioproducts coming from these landscapes, and thus contributing to sustainable mobility frameworks based on biofuels.

The current transport fuel dilemma, which centres around the input problem of dwindling conventional crude oil reserves as well as the so-called output problem of increasing GHG emissions 1, has triggered an increased interest in alternative fuels from other hydrocarbon sources such as natural gas and coal as well as renewables. The increased consumption of unconventional oil resources would initially solve the input problem of falling conventional oil resources, but inevitably exacerbate the output problem of increased environmental pollution 1. Biofuels can be a viable substitute for fossil fuels, most notably when produced in a sustainable manner and from feedstock which is not in direct competition with food or animal feed.

Carbon dioxide (CO

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) emissions from passenger cars represent an important and growing contributor to climate change. Increasing the proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) in passenger car fleets could help to reduce these emissions, but their ability to do this depends on the fuel mix used in generating the electricity that energises EVs. This chapter analyses the indirect well-to-wheels CO

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emissions from EVs when run in a range of countries and compares these to well-to-wheels emissions data for a selection of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) (Holdway, Energy Environ Sci 3(12):1825−1832).

The previous chapters in this publication explored specific issues relating to the future of mobility, such as efficiency improvements, modular change and electrification. Rather than looking at technical and structural issues, this paper will concentrate instead on global resource constraints and how behavioural change will be a vital element of the solution.

There is presently no global consensus on how our human society might ultimately transform from a hydrocarbon, fossil fuel-based energy economy to an alternative low-carbon, or zero-carbon economy. The same is true for alternative fuel options for transportation. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are highly promising in that their well-to-wheel carbon dioxide profile is very good and compare favorably against either battery electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, since many national energy grids (e.g. China and the USA) are so dirty. These fuel cell vehicles have ranges similar to gasoline vehicles, e.g. the Honda Clarity has a range of some 250 miles. In that regard, many countries view the development and dissemination of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies as core technologies for a future sustainable economy which could contribute to environmental impact reduction, energy diversity and energy independence as well as new industry creation. However, the attraction of “competitor” electric vehicles is that much of the underlying infrastructure and technology already exists; national grids are in place with the right support infrastructure for scale-out across countries. When it comes to hydrogen, this is simply not the case. It is clear that this alternative technology is not yet ready for mass market and the infrastructure is not in place to support these vehicles. Thus the economics of a transition is difficult. These types of considerations led the US, for example, in 2009 to announce a significant reduction in research and development funding into automotive hydrogen fuel cells, arguing that a focus on areas such as plug-in vehicles has the potential to make the quickest impact on environmental issues. However, the long-term potential of hydrogen fuel cells is recognized while understanding the pressing scientific and technological and socio-economic challenges. As well as the vexing issue of the absence of any national infrastructure for hydrogen, these challenges center on the cost and durability of vehicle fuel cells; the current inability to store large volumes of hydrogen fuel onboard transport vehicles and the absence of large-scale processes to the manufacture of carbon-free hydrogen. In part of our contribution, we present a brief overview on the current states of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, covering several of the key challenges of what one might see as a future hydrogen economy. But we stress that hydrogen can also fulfill an even broader, pivotal role in renewable energy capture and conversion. A variety of renewable or sustainable energy sources can be used to produce molecular hydrogen, which can then be used in multiple energy applications:

as

a fuel for personal transportation, in the conventional vision of a hydrogen transport economy; as an energy store in static applications, particularly as a buffer in energy generation; or

in

a fuel, using hydrogen as a feedstock in the synthesis of oxygenated fuels such as methanol or ethanol or even hydrocarbon fuels such as diesel. This complementary approach of using hydrogen for the synthesis of hydrocarbon-based liquid fuels at-a-stroke removes the burgeoning requirement noted earlier for large-scale infrastructure changes that are necessary in the use of molecular hydrogen

as

a fuel. Furthermore, the use of carbon dioxide (atmospheric or industrial by-product) as the source of carbon for the synthesis of liquid hydrocarbon fuels with hydrogen has the potential to reduce emission of fossil carbon into the atmosphere. Hydrogen generation as a buffer or energy store, using energy that would otherwise not be matched to load in the electricity grid, can be regarded as a potential key ally of renewable energy generation from intermittent natural sources including wind, wave, tide and solar power. Scientists and policy-makers should thus keep in mind a variety of possible “hydrogen economies”.

Mobility means access—access to markets, to jobs, to education, to economic opportunity, to extended communities. Road transport is therefore fundamental to economic growth and improved living standards, enabling trade and social interaction through the movement of goods and people. It is also fundamental to Shell’s business. Most of our products enable some form of mobility. This includes the fuels that power vehicles, such as petrol, diesel and biofuels. It also includes less obvious products, such as lubricants to help engines and drive trains run smoothly, bitumen that paves roads and petrochemical-based plastics that make up more than 10% of the average new car.

This chapter explores the potential for electric vehicles to contribute to decarbonising surface transport. Decarbonising transport is a major global challenge—meeting CO

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emissions reduction targets for 2050, with a rapidly growing, and urbanising global population.

Road vehicles account for almost half of the energy used in all transport modes globally. Reducing energy use in vehicles is key to meeting the forecast increase in demand for transport, while improving energy security and mitigating climate change. Non-powertrain vehicle options may reduce fuel consumption by at least 15%. Electric motors are the significant powertrain option to reduce energy use in vehicles because they are more efficient than the internal combustion engine and can recover a portion of the vehicle kinetic energy during braking. Conventionally, batteries are used to meet both the power and energy demands of electric vehicles and their variants. However, batteries are well-suited to store energy, while ultra-capacitors and high-speed flywheels are better placed to meet the bidirectional, high power requirements of real-world driving. Combining technologies with complementary strengths can yield a lower cost and more efficient energy storage system. While pure and hybrid electric vehicles use less energy than internal combustion engine vehicles, their ability to mitigate climate change is a function of the emissions intensity of the processes used to generate their electricity.

Lithium-ion batteries are poised to make a significant impact on the electrification of transport and may also play a role for some power regulation/storage applications on the electric grid. In this article, we describe some of the applications where these batteries are either already being or are about to be used. The components that make up a lithium-ion battery are outlined along with the causes of capacity fade and safety issues. Current battery chemistries are then surveyed along with the factors that control possible scenarios to increase energy densities on both a volumetric and mass basis.

Fuel cells offer the transport sector the promise of decreased dependence on fossil fuels, low or zero emissions, and high efficiency. Unlike internal combustion engines, fuel cells convert chemical energy directly into electrical energy, producing much less waste heat and offering a much higher theoretical efficiency. Unlike batteries, fuel cells can run continuously with continuous input of reactants (fuel and oxidant). Fuel cells run best on pure or reformed hydrogen but some can operate directly on alternative fuels such as methanol or hydrocarbons.

This chapter is an overview of the changes in real-world fuel economy in key countries and of recent developments in fuel taxes imposed on all fuels across the EU-Member States. Coal and gas are undertaxed but diesel and gasoline are overtaxed; however, fuel economy is directly affected by fuel taxes (prices) and not by taxes on coal. Standards on fuel economy can be interpreted as taxes on fuel and both standards and fuel taxes can be triggers for investment in alternative energy technology. Costs of conserved energy show that hybrid trucks are cost-effective to buy for freight transport operators so long as fuel costs are high. Trends in the cost of conserved energy are likely to favour investment in fuel saving technologies so long as fuel and oil prices remain high as is currently the case. Taxes on fossil fuels are one way to save fossil fuels and EU Governments are aware of the need to save fossil fuels and to reduce dependency on them. EU fuel taxes have led to improved fuel economy on EU roads.

A new policy instrument, known as a low carbon fuel standard (LCFS), is a promising approach to decarbonize transportation fuels. An LCFS has several important features: it applies a life cycle carbon intensity standard, incorporates market mechanisms by allowing credit trading, and targets all transport fuels. A harmonized international framework is needed that builds on newly enacted LCFS policies adopted in California and the European Union.

Mobility enhances our lives by allowing contact with others, offering new experiences and supporting the exchange of ideas and goods. Cities facilitate connecting people and goods but their roads are becoming increasingly crowded. This is particularly acute in emerging markets, with increased migration from rural to urban areas and with increasingly wealthy people aspiring to automobile ownership. Despite heavily congested roads, there is still a desire for personal mobility in urban centers because no other means of transportation has so far offered the same mix of freedom, comfort, utility and security as the automobile. However, a new kind of vehicle, based on having a small footprint, being electrically powered and being able to connect with other vehicles will be required in the future to provide personal mobility while addressing the societal challenges of energy, environment, safety, congestion and land use for parking. This new DNA for the automobile, based on electrification and connectivity, will also improve the integration of personal and public transport so that a new mobility system, offering the best features of both, can be realized.

As a leading world city with the oldest metro in the world, London has a well-established transport system which has developed hand-in-hand with its urban growth. Londoners make over 24 million trips on the transport network each weekday; however, this is set to rise to over 27 million trips by 2031, due to increasing population and jobs. The Mayor of London’s Transport Strategy, finalised in 2010 after extensive consultation and developed alongside the city’s spatial and economic development strategies, sets out the transport agenda for the next 20 years to ensure this growth can be accommodated sustainably. The Strategy builds on the successes since Transport for London was established in 2000 by setting a policy framework for cross-modal sustainable growth and desired outcomes for the future. It addresses the Mayor’s goals for supporting economic and population growth, enhancing quality of life, improving safety and security, reducing transport’s contribution to climate change and improving its resilience and supporting the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and its legacy. The Transport Strategy sets out policies and proposals for London to meet these goals, including the further integration of spatial development and transport provision through the land use planning process, efficient use of the transport system, increased capacity and demand management. A cross-modal programme of improvements and policy initiatives to support walking, cycling and public transport use, to better manage road traffic and to reduce emissions from ground-based transport is well underway. With an integrated approach to transport and land use policy and a clear coordinated implementation plan, the challenges of meeting London’s growth in a sustainable manner can be met. The following chapter represents individual reflections of the authors but from the perspective of London’s transport authority, Transport for London.

For many cities, traditional transport comprises a sizeable percentage of total carbon emissions. It also contributes to air pollution, poorer health, and resource inefficiencies in the form of higher oil prices, traffic jams, etc. Often city policy-makers do not account for climate change impacts and natural disasters or consider alternative transport options and networks. It does not have to be like this. Cities can continue to develop and grow, attracting industry, high-skilled workers, tourists with sustainable urban design, and mobility. With walking, cycling, green public transport, and shared vehicle use taking the lead, and supported by ICT, cities can become less reliant on traditional and personal transport. Instead, city policy-makers can aim to increase accessibility and convenience to their residents and visitors alike, including rapid and safe mobility in times of emergency. This can be done with good urban design, behaviour change, advance technology, supportive policies, economic incentives, and city engagement and leadership.

This paper looks at the impact of charging for road use in cities where an intermodal equilibrium prevails, where increased transit use leads to efficiency gains, and where the roads are congested. Demand is assumed to be elastic and transit is assumed not to be directly affected by road congestion, as would be the case where transit uses a reserved track. It is shown that at a stable intermodal user equilibrium a version of the Downs-Thompson paradox applies if the efficiency gains arising from increased transit use are passed on to passengers as reduced generalised costs (reduced fares, increased service frequencies or both). The paradox arises because the imposition of a road user charge not only reduces road congestion but also reduces the generalised cost of travel at the intermodal user equilibrium, including the road user charge for those who choose to drive. The paper then goes on to consider what would be expected if, rather passing on the efficiency gains to transit users, the transit operator(s) as a whole maximise profits, and establishes that the paradox no longer arises. The implications of these findings for the regulation of transit fares are considered.

Aviation has become a critical part of the global economy in the last 60 years. It has redefined the nature of opportunity and neighbors in our world. Aviation has become a crucial driver of economic development in large parts of the world and supports the world’s largest industry—tourism. Yet, the success of aviation growth in opening borders, expanding travel, and integrating economies has produced concerns over its environmental impacts.

From 2006 through 2011 Sustainable Aviation Alternative fuels transitioned from a stagnant research focus project to a multi-dimensional technology development and deployment thrust commanding the attention of airline and defense buyers, advanced biofuels producers and governments worldwide.

Aircraft engines account for only 2% of the CO

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emitted to the atmosphere from all sources, but the societal impact of these emissions appears to be proportionately much higher. This is partly because of the highly visible nature of engine exhausts under some flight conditions (e.g. contrails at altitude) and partly because air transport continues to grow relentlessly.

As well as improvements in the propulsive efficiency of aircraft (Chapter 23) there are a number of other technological developments, which enable the reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from aviation. Some are ‘tweaks’ to current design methodologies; others involve a more radical approach to aviation, all resulting in significant savings in fuel burn and therefore a reduction of emissions from aviation. This chapter will cover developments in materials, aerodynamics and some more radical options for the reduction of the impact of aviation on climate change.

With aviation under increasing pressure in terms of its environmental performance, more efficient use of airspace can deliver significant benefits in terms of reducing fuel burn and emissions. Air Traffic Control has a major role to play, working with airlines, airports and manufacturers to optimise the whole flight process to identify better ways of operating. NATS was the first Air Navigation Services Provider (ANSP) to benchmark its environmental performance and this chapter will explore how ANSPs can, through benchmarking, identify ways to deliver better flight profiles, procedures and routings to reduce airline fuel burn and emissions. Air traffic controller assistance tools, airspace designs and even corporate culture all have a part to play and this chapter will describe how these can be harnessed to secure a more sustainable future for the global air transportation system.

Singapore Airlines has consistently outperformed its competitors throughout its four-decade-long history, in the context of an unforgiving industry environment. We examine how Singapore Airlines has achieved its outstanding performance and sustained its competitive advantage, through effectively implementing a dual strategy: differentiation through service excellence and innovation, together with simultaneous cost leadership in its peer group. We examine the organisational elements that have allowed the company to do so, illustrate its strategic alignment using a vertical alignment framework and conclude by highlighting the significant challenges ahead.

While air to rail substitution is much discussed, in the literature and in the policy debate, there has still been no attempt to quantify the potential for such mode substitution in order to examine the extent to which High Speed Train (HST) might address the main problems faced by the air transport industry: the capacity shortage on the one hand and the environmental problem on the other. This chapter aims to fill this gap and to examine the worldwide potential for mode substitution based on the current air transport network and the supply of air transport services. The potential for reduction in CO2 emissions as a result of mode substitution is also examined.

In 2008, prospective Tory candidate for London Mayor, Boris Johnson, suggested building a major new international airport in the Thames Estuary to replace the ‘planning error’ that is Heathrow. Once elected, Johnson commissioned a serious study, headed by civil engineer Douglas Oakervee, into the potential for construction of an airport in the Thames Estuary. This chapter looks at the discussion held around the possible development of a fourth London airport in the Thames Estuary.

Logistics is a relatively energy-intensity sector which is rapidly expanding mainly as a result of globalisation. This chapter assesses its share of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and considers how this is likely to change over the next 40 years. It then reviews the numerous ways in which energy consumption by logistical activities and related emissions can be reduced. This is done within a framework built around a series of seven key parameters. By altering these parameters companies and governments should be able to decouple the growth in demand for logistics from the associated energy requirements and externalities. The parameters relate to the freight-intensity of the economy, the division of freight traffic between modes, the utilisation of vehicle capacity, the energy efficiency of logistics operations (comprising transport and warehousing) and finally the ratio of emissions to energy use. While changes in these parameters will offset much of the underlying growth in demand for logistical services, there seems limited prospect of energy use and carbon emissions in this sector dropping sharply in absolute terms over the few decades.

This chapter discusses the scope for increasing the energy efficiency and decreasing the carbon (and other GHG) emissions of ships and shipping. An overview of the fundamentals of the shipping industry is presented (why does shipping exist, how does demand develop, where do ships go, how is shipping structured, what are its impacts) to provide context for further detail on the energy efficiency, regulatory options and technology options that could be employed to help transition shipping to a low carbon future. Two specific examples of trends which could be important to this transition (an increase in ship size and a decrease in speed) are then analysed in greater detail to reveal their potential and also some of the practical implementation issues that will need to be considered.

Within the context of overall energy use for transport, the railways offer the easiest path to low carbon through electrification and its generation through low- or zero-carbon sources. The railways also generally claim to be a “greener” form of transport, although this claim depends critically on the passenger occupancy achieved. For freight movements there are clear energy advantages, but issues exist related to the transfer and final delivery of goods. The freight areas in which rail excels, in its traditional markets of coal and heavy goods, have declined in developed economies, the most common cargo now being the freight container. This chapter will flesh out the above issues and discuss some suggested routes to low energy, low emissions such as lightweighting, hybrid trains, fuel cells and bio-diesel and driving style.

Until recently, British governments have been sceptical about the case for construction of high speed rail lines, but by 2009 all three major parties supported the concept, and in March 2010 the government published details of the proposed route for a high speed line from London to Birmingham (“HS2”), with connections to the existing network to allow faster journey times to Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow. Following the general election in May 2010, the new coalition government committed to a larger project, with a network linking London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, together with links to Heathrow Airport and the existing high speed line to the channel tunnel. The supporters of high speed rail argue that the project has a number of major benefits for Britain: (1) Conventional transport economic benefits, as a result of time savings and congestion relief; (2) Environmental benefits, particularly as a result of substitution of rail for air travel; (3) The provision of additional capacity to meet rapidly growing rail demand; (4) Regeneration of the North of England, reducing the North–South divide in Britain. The evidence for each of these claimed benefits is reviewed, together with experience from high speed rail projects elsewhere in the world. The review concludes that there is no strong case for construction of the HS2 project.

A sustainable economy ‘meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’ [

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] and a sustainable transport system should support this overall goal. The definition of sustainable finance applied in this chapter thus goes beyond the basic idea that financial institutions need to be robust enough to survive turbulent economic conditions. It also goes beyond the idea that government and private sector entities (represented in financial markets by instruments such as government bonds, corporate bonds and equities) must be sound enough to survive volatile markets. Sustainable finance is a broader concept, denoting financial institutions and structures in which being financially sound is necessary but ancillary to their broader goal of facilitating and supporting a sustainable economy, and within that, a sustainable transport system.

Economic analysis applied to transport is faced with four crises. They are (a) evidence of a profound (and favorable) shift in long term trends, which should change forecasts of future traffic levels; (b) doubts in the axiom that transport investment necessarily supports economic growth; (c) rethinking the relevance and reliability of long established formal methods of assessing the benefits and costs of transport projects; (d) unfavorable pressures to reduce spending on small, widely spread, local policy initiatives which assist behaviour change and sustainability, in favour of larger ‘flagship’ investments whose impacts may be the opposite of intentions. It is argued that a broad evidence base now supports sustainable transport policies which can reduce car dependence, improve health, and give both environmental and economic benefits.

The evaluation of transport projects rests on comparing the costs of investment with their benefits. How we describe these benefits therefore has a strong impact on whether investments are made. One approach is to use time savings, but this abstracts from trip generation and economic impacts, and leaves it hard to incorporate environmental constraints. This however is still a dominant methodology amongst transport analysts. This chapter will critically evaluate these methodologies and the impact they have had on the ability to consider transport projects, with particular reference to the UK.

Like the global financial crisis, which resulted in part from misguided accounting of mortgages, global policies to expand transportation biofuels and bioelectricity reflect an accounting error. Although the carbon accounting in these policies assumes that plant growth offsets all carbon released by burning biofuels, only “additional” plant growth can provide an offset. Because they double count biomass and land already used by people or sequestering carbon, many policy proposals aim for bioenergy to supply 20% or more of the world’s energy by 2050. That would require almost doubling the present global harvest of plants for all uses, which would likely lead to extensive deforestation and increase greenhouse gases. Fixing the accounting would focus policies on the more limited potential for truly low carbon biofuels.