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2019 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

12. Estimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes

Authors : Michael F. Wehner, Colin Zarzycki, Christina Patricola

Published in: Hurricane Risk

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Quantifying the human influence on individual extreme weather events is a new and rapidly developing science. Understanding the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones poses special challenges due to their intensities and scales. We present a method designed to overcome these challenges using high-resolution hindcasts of individual tropical cyclones under their actual large-scale meteorological conditions, counterfactual conditions without human influences on the climate system, and scenarios of increased climate change. Two practical case studies are presented along with a discussion of the conditions and limitations of attribution statements that can be made with this hindcast attribution method.

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Title: Estimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes
Authors: Michael F. Wehner
Colin Zarzycki
Christina Patricola
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Hurricane Risk
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-02401-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-02402-4

Copyright Year: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_12