Evaluation of the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability Emergency Response Model for Explosive Sources

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) uses a modeling system to calculate the impact of accidental radiological or toxic releases to the atmosphere anywhere in the world (Sullivan et al., 1993). Operated for the U. S. Departments of Energy and Defense, ARAC has responded to over 60 incidents in the past 18 years, and conducts over 100 exercises each year. Explosions are one of the most common mechanisms by which toxic particulates are injected into the atmosphere during accidents. Automated algorithms with default assumptions have been developed to estimate the source geometry and the amount of toxic material aerosolized. The paper examines the sensitivity of ARAC’s dispersion model to the range of input values for explosive sources, and analyzes the model’s accuracy using two field measurement programs.