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2011 | Book

Extreme Environmental Events

Complexity in Forecasting and Early Warning

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About this book

Extreme Environmental Events is an authoritative single source for understanding and applying the basic tenets of complexity and systems theory, as well as the tools and measures for analyzing complex systems, to the prediction, monitoring, and evaluation of major natural phenomena affecting life on earth. These phenomena are often highly destructive, and include earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, climate change, and weather. Early warning, damage, and the immediate response of human populations to these phenomena are also covered from the point of view of complexity and nonlinear systems. In 61 authoritative, state-of-the art articles, world experts in each field apply such tools and concepts as fractals, cellular automata, solitons game theory, network theory, and statistical physics to an understanding of these complex geophysical phenomena.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Abrupt Climate Change Modeling

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionA Mathematical DefinitionEarth System Modeling and AnalysisExample: Glacial-Interglacial TransitionsExample: Cenozoic Climate CoolingExamples: Transient GrowthFuture DirectionsBibliography

Gerrit Lohmann
Brittle Tectonics: A Non-linear Dynamical System

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionScaling Relations: Self‐similarityEarthquake and Fault Populations: Self-organizationModels of the SystemFuture DirectionsBibliography

Christopher H. Scholz
Climate Change and Agriculture

GlossaryIntroductionConclusionsFuture DirectionsBibliography

Cynthia Rosenzweig
Climate Change, Economic Costs of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionIssuesTotal CostsMarginal CostsPolicy ImplicationsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Richard S. J. Tol
Climate ChangeClimate change impact on human health and Human HealthHuman health climate change

GlossaryIntroductionClimate Change Impact on Human HealthClimate Change Impacts on Plants with Consequences for Human HealthConcluding RemarksBibliography

Hartmut Grassl
Climate Modeling, Global Warming and Weather Prediction, Introduction to
Hartmut Grassl
Complexity in Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Volcanoes, and Forecast, Introduction to

IntroductionEarthquakesTsunamisVolcanoesDiscussions

William H. K. Lee
Crustal Deformation During the Seismic Cycle, Interpreting Geodetic Observations of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionHighlights of Earthquake GeodesyModeling of Geodetic ObservationsFuture DirectionsBibliography

Rowena Lohman
Cryosphere ModelsCryosphere models

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionSnow CoverFloating IceGlaciersIce SheetsFrozen Ground and PermafrostFuture DirectionsBibliography

Roger G. Barry
DynamicGame dynamic Games with an Application to ClimateDynamic game climate change model ChangeDynamic game model Models

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionThe Dynamic – or Stochastic – Game ModelThe Dynamic – or Stochastic – Game: ResultsGlobal Climate Change – Issues, ModelsGlobal Climate Change – ResultsFuture DirectionsBibliography

Prajit K. Dutta
Earthquake Clusters over Multi-dimensional Space, Visualization of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionEarthquakes ClusteringMultidimensional Feature SpaceThe Detection and Visualization of Clusters in Multi-Dimensional Feature SpaceDescription of the DataEarthquake Visualization by Using Clustering in Feature SpaceRemote Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for Analyzing Earthquake ClustersFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

David A. Yuen, Witold Dzwinel, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Ben Kadlec
Earthquake DamageDamage : Detection and Early WarningEarly warning in Man-Made StructuresStructure

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionLiterature ReviewDamage and Damage-Sensitive FeaturesStructural Models and IdentificationExamplesFuture DirectionsBibliography

Maria I. Todorovska
Earthquake Early Warning System in Southern Italy

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionEarthquake Potential and Seismic Riskin the Campania RegionSeismic Network Architecture and ComponentsReal-Time Data Transmission SystemNetwork Management and Data ArchivingReal-Time Earthquake Location and Magnitude EstimationReal-Time Hazard Analysis for Earthquake Early WarningFuture DirectionsBibliography

Aldo Zollo, Giovanni Iannaccone, Vincenzo Convertito, Luca Elia, Iunio Iervolino, Maria Lancieri, Anthony Lomax, Claudio Martino, Claudio Satriano, Emanuel Weber, Paolo Gasparini
Earthquake Engineering, Non-linear Problems in

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionVibrational Representation of ResponseResponse in Terms of Wave Propagation – An ExampleObservations of Nonlinear ResponseFuture DirectionsBibliography

Mihailo D. Trifunac
Earthquake Forecasting and Verification

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionEarthquake ForecastingForecast VerificationFuture DirectionsBibliography

James R. Holliday, John B. Rundle, Donald L. Turcotte
EarthquakeEarthquake LocationEarthquake location , Direct, Global-SearchGlobal-search Methods

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionThe Earthquake Location ProblemLocation MethodsIllustrative ExamplesFuture DirectionsBibliography

Anthony Lomax, Alberto Michelini, Andrew Curtis
Earthquake Magnitude

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroduction to Common Magnitude Scales: Potential and LimitationsCommon Magnitude Estimates for the Sumatra 2004 Mw 9.3 EarthquakeMagnitude Saturation and Biases Due to Earthquake ComplexityProposals for Faster Magnitude Estimates of Strong EarthquakesFuture Requirements and DevelopmentsBibliography

Peter Bormann, Joachim Saul
Earthquake Monitoring and Early Warning Systems

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionEarthquake Monitoring: InstrumentationEarthquake Monitoring: Regional and Local NetworksSeismograms and Derived ProductsEarthquake Early Warning (EEW) SystemsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsAppendix: A Progress Report on Rotational SeismologyBibliography

William H. K. Lee, Yih-Min Wu
Earthquake NetworksEarthquake networks , Complex

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionConstruction of an Earthquake NetworkScale-free Nature of Earthquake NetworkSmall-World Nature of Earthquake NetworkHierarchical StructureMixing PropertyPeriod DistributionFuture DirectionsAddendumBibliography

Sumiyoshi Abe, Norikazu Suzuki
Earthquake Nucleation ProcessEarthquake nucleation process

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionContribution from the Development of Earthquake Early-Warning SystemsObservations of Initial Rupture ProcessesDiscussionFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Yoshihisa Iio
Earthquake Occurrence and Mechanisms, Stochastic Models for

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionHistorical OverviewStochastic Models for Earthquake MechanismsModels for Paleoseismological and Historical EarthquakesPoint Process Models for Regional CataloguesStochastic Models with PrecursorsFurther TopicsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

David Vere-Jones
Earthquake Scaling Laws

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionEarthquakes and Seismic RadiationEarthquake Fault Models: The Scaling of Geometry and StressEarthquake Dynamics and the Scaling of EnergyKinematics and Statistical Models for Fault SlipFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Raul Madariaga
Earthquakes, Dynamic Triggering of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionReview of Dynamic Triggering ObservationsCharacteristics of Dynamic TriggeringPhysical Models of Dynamic TriggeringFuture DirectionsBibliography

Stephanie G. Prejean, David P. Hill
Earthquakes, Electromagnetic Signals of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionTelluric Current Anomalies and Natural TimeUltra Low Frequency (ULF) AnomaliesHigher Frequency Electromagnetic Emission and Earthquake LightLithosphere‐Atmosphere‐Ionosphere (LAI) CouplingMechanism of Pre‐Seismic EM PhenomenaFuture DirectionsBibliography

Seiya Uyeda, Masashi Kamogawa, Toshiyasu Nagao
Earthquake Source: Asymmetry and Rotation Effects

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectAsymmetric Continuum and Rotation EffectsEarthquake Source: Fracture ProcessesFinal RemarksAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Roman Teisseyre
Earthquake Source ParametersEarthquake source parameters , Rapid Estimates for Tsunami WarningTsunami warning rapid estimates

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionTsunami Warning Center OperationsSeismic MethodsEarthquake Source ParametersFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Barry Hirshorn, Stuart Weinstein
Earth’s Crust and Upper Mantle, Dynamics of Solid–Liquid Systems in

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionGeneral Theoretical Framework to Describe the Dynamics of Solid–Liquid Composite SystemsOverview of ApplicationsElastic Wave Propagation in a Solid–Liquid Composite SystemFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Yasuko Takei
Evacuation as a CommunicationCommunication and Social PhenomenonSocial phenomenon

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionConcepts, Language and Mathematically Modeling the Propensity to EvacuateMathematical ModelingEffective Risk CommunicationIntegrating Theory and ImplementationInstitutional Barriers to Greater Community Self-HelpExperiences and Lessons – Some Case StudiesDiscussionAcknowledgmentBibliography

Douglas Goudie
Evacuation Dynamics: Empirical Results, Modeling and Applications

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionEmpirical ResultsModelingApplicationsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Andreas Schadschneider, Wolfram Klingsch, Hubert Klüpfel, Tobias Kretz, Christian Rogsch, Armin Seyfried
Extreme Events in Socio-economic and Political Complex Systems, Predictability of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionCommon Elements of Data AnalyzesElectionsUS Economic RecessionsUnemploymentHomicide SurgesSummary: Findings and Emerging PossibilitiesBibliography

Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, Allan Lichtman
Fractals in Geology and Geophysics

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionDrainage NetworksFragmentationEarthquakesVolcanic EruptionsLandslidesFloodsSelf‐Affine FractalsTopographyEarth's Magnetic FieldFuture DirectionsBibliography

Donald L. Turcotte
Geo-complexity and Earthquake Prediction

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionLithosphere as a Hierarchical Complex SystemGeneral Scheme of PredictionFour ParadigmsEarthquake Prediction and Earthquake PreparednessFurther GoalsAcknowledgmentBibliography

Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Andrei Gabrielov, Alexandre Soloviev
GPS: Applications in Crustal Deformation Monitoring

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionGlobal Positioning System MeasurementsApplications of GPS Data to the Study of Seismic and Volcanic HazardsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Jessica Murray-Moraleda
Ground Motion: Complexity and Scaling in the Near Field of Earthquake Ruptures

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionCharacterizing Earthquake Source ComplexityWave Propagation in Complex Media: Path and Site EffectsGround‐Motion Scaling RelationsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

P. Martin Mai
InfrasoundEarthquake infrasound fromTsunami infrasound EarthquakesVolcano infrasound , TsunamisInfrasound tsunami andInfrasound earthquake VolcanoesInfrasound volcano

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionInfrasound ArraysEarthquake InfrasoundTsunami InfrasoundVolcano InfrasoundFuture DirectionsConcluding RemarksAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Milton Garces, Alexis Le Pichon
Jerky Motion in Slowly Driven Magnetic and Earthquake Fault Systems, Physics of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionModelsTheoretical ResultsSummaryFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Karin A. Dahmen, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Pedestrian, Crowd and Evacuation Dynamics

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionPedestrian DynamicsCrowd DynamicsEvacuation DynamicsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Dirk Helbing, Anders Johansson
PercolationPercolation , and FaultsFault and Fractures in RockFractures in rock

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionFracture NetworksPercolation of Fracture NetworksDetermination of the Dimensionless Density from Experimental DataRole of the Dimensionless Density in Other Geometrical Properties and PermeabilityFuture DirectionsBibliography

Pierre M. Adler, Jean-François Thovert, Valeri V. Mourzenko
Pressure Impulses Generated by Bubbles Interacting with Ambient Perturbation

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionElementary Processes in a Single‐Bubble DynamicsBubbly Magma in an Elastic Rock as a Pressure SourceAcoustic Bubbles in Hydrothermal SystemsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Mie Ichihara, Takeshi Nishimura
Regional Climate Models: Linking Global Climate Change to Local Impacts

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionBasic Features and Model CharacteristicsValidationIPCC-ScenariosRegional Climate ChangeRegional ExtremesFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Daniela Jacob
Seismic Wave Propagation in Media with Complex Geometries, Simulation of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionThe Evolution of Numerical Methods and Grids3D Wave Propagation on Hexahedral Grids: Soil-Structure Interactions3D Wave Propagation on Tetrahedral Grids: Application to VolcanologyLocal Time Stepping: ∆t-AdaptationDiscussion and Future DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Heiner Igel, Martin Käser, Marco Stupazzini
Seismic Waves in Heterogeneous Earth, Scattering of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionRadiative Transfer Theory for a Scattering MediumWave Envelopes in Random Media and Statistical CharacterizationEnvelope Broadening of a High-Frequency SeismogramSpatial Variation of Scattering CharacteristicsTemporal Change in the Earth Medium StructureFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Haruo Sato
Seismicity, Critical States of: From Models to Practical Seismic Hazard Estimates Space

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionModeling Seismicity in Real Fault RegionsResultsSummary and ConclusionsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Gert Zöller, Sebastian Hainzl, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Matthias Holschneider
Seismicity, Statistical Physics Approaches to

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionConcepts and Calculational ToolsCompeting Mechanisms and ModelsEmpirical Studies of Seismicity Inspired by Statistical PhysicsFuture DirectionsBibliography

Didier Sornette, Maximilian J. Werner
Single Column Modeling of Atmospheric Boundary Layers and the Complex Interactions with the Land Surface

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionBackgroundAtmospheric Boundary‐Layer StructureModeling BasicsLocal Mixing ParameterizationMore Advanced Mixing ParameterizationsIntercomparison of Single Column Models for Stable ConditionsModeling Boundary Layers over LandImpact of Land Surface Conditions on Model ResultsSummaryAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Albert A. M. Holtslag, Gert-Jan Steeneveld
Slug Flow: Modeling in a Conduit and Associated Elastic Radiation

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionSlug Flow and Strombolian ActivityNumerical ModelingBubble AscentSlug Ascent in a Vertical PipeSlug Ascent in a Pipe with a FlareSeismological Constraints on Numerical ModelsConclusionsFuture DirectionsAppendix A – Fluid Dynamics of a Two-Phase SystemAppendix B – Numerical ImplementationBibliography

Luca D'Auria, Marcello Martini
Solitons, Tsunamis and Oceanographical Applications of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionShallow Water Waves and KdV Type EquationsDeep Water Waves and NLS Type EquationsTsunamis as SolitonsInternal SolitonsRossby SolitonsBore SolitonsFuture DirectionsBibliography

M. Lakshmanan
Submarine Landslides and Slow Earthquakes: Monitoring Motion with GPS and Seafloor Geodesy

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionMonitoring Motion: Subaerial and Submarine Geodetic MethodsData Analysis and InversionDiscussion: Slow Earthquake and Submarine Landslide ProcessFuture Directions: Slow Earthquakes and Submarine Landslide MonitoringAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Benjamin A. Brooks, James H. Foster, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Mark Behn
System Dynamics Models of Environment, Energy and Climate Change

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionThe Model of Mono LakeThe Model of the Salmon in the Tucannon RiverModels of Climate ChangeSystem Dynamics Models of the Carbon CycleLessons from the Regulated Power Industry in the 1970sSimulating the Power Industry Response to a Carbon MarketConditions for Effective Interdisciplinary ModelingFuture DirectionsBibliography

Andrew Ford
Tomography, Seismic

Definition of the SubjectIntroductionFundamentals of X-ray Computerized TomographyArrival‐Time Seismic TomographySolution of Ill-Posed Linear ProblemsExamplesFuture DirectionsBibliography

Jose Pujol
Tsunami EarthquakesTsunami earthquakes

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionCharacteristics of Tsunami EarthquakesFactors Involved in the Seismogenesis and Tsunamigenesis of Tsunami EarthquakesA Model for Tsunami EarthquakesFuture DirectionsBibliography

Jascha Polet, H. Kanamori
Tsunami Forecasting and Warning

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionComplexity Problem in Tsunami ForecastingComponents of a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS)Tsunami Early Warning System in JapanFuture OutlookAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Osamu Kamigaichi
Tsunami Inundation, Modeling of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionBrief Review of Tsunami Generation and Open Ocean PropagationPhysics of Nearshore Tsunami EvolutionEffects of Bathymetric and Topographical Features on InundationHydrodynamic Modeling of Tsunami EvolutionMoving Shoreline AlgorithmsFuture DirectionsBibliography

Patrick J. Lynett
Tsunamis, Inverse Problem of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionTsunami Generation by EarthquakesTsunami PropagationTsunami ObservationsEstimation of Tsunami SourceEstimation of Earthquake Fault ParametersFuture DirectionsBibliography

Kenji Satake
Volcanic Eruptions: Cyclicity During Lava Dome Growth

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionDynamics of Magma Ascent During Extrusive EruptionsShort‐Term CyclesLong‐Term CyclesFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Oleg Melnik, R. Stephen J. Sparks, Antonio Costa, Alexei A. Barmin
Volcanic Eruptions, Explosive: Experimental Insights

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionVolcanic MaterialsVolcanic ProcessesAnalogue ApproachFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Stephen J. Lane, Michael R. James
Volcanic Eruptions: Stochastic Models of Occurrence Patterns

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionDataTemporal ModelsVolcanic RegimesSpatial AspectsYucca MountainInteractions with EarthquakesFuture DirectionsBibliography

Mark S. Bebbington
Volcanic Hazards and Early Warning

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionScope of Problem: Challenge for Emergency–Management AuthoritiesVariability in Possible Outcomes of Volcano UnrestSome Recent Examples of Actual Outcomes of Volcano UnrestChallenges in Achieving Refined Predictive CapabilityFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Robert I. Tilling
Volcanoes, Non-linear Processes in

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionDescription of Seismic Sources in VolcanoesSources of Long‐Period SeismicitySource Processes of Very‐Long‐Period SignalsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentBibliography

Bernard Chouet
Volcano Seismic Signals, Source Quantification of

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionPhenomenological Representation of Seismic SourcesWaveform InversionSpectral AnalysisFluid-Solid InteractionsFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentAppendix A: Green's FunctionsAppendix B: Moment Tensor for a Spherical SourceAppendix C: Moment Tensor for a Cylindrical SourceBibliography

Hiroyuki Kumagai
Wedge Mechanics: Relation with Subduction Zone EarthquakesSubduction zone earthquake and TsunamisTsunami

GlossaryDefinition of the SubjectIntroductionStable and Critical Coulomb WedgesDynamic Coulomb WedgeStress Drop and Increase in a~Subduction EarthquakeTsunamigenic Coseismic Seafloor DeformationFuture DirectionsAcknowledgmentsBibliography

Kelin Wang, Yan Hu, Jiangheng He
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
Extreme Environmental Events
Editor
Robert A. Meyers, Ph. D.
Copyright Year
2011
Publisher
Springer New York
Electronic ISBN
978-1-4419-7695-6
Print ISBN
978-1-4419-7694-9
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7695-6