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Journal of Economics and Finance

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09-02-2018

Gold and oil prices: stable or unstable long-run relationship

Authors: Charbel Bassil, Hassan Hamadi, Patrick Mardini

Published in: Journal of Economics and Finance | Issue 1/2019

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Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of a long-run relationship between the daily prices of oil and gold over the period 1986-2015. The presence of such a long-run relationship implies that the two markets are jointly inefficient; and that one price can be used as a predictor for the other price. We also test the presence of one or multiple structural breaks in the long-run relation. The presence of structural breaks suggests that the magnitude and the sign of the relationship between oil and gold prices may be different across different regimes. Our methodology is based on endogenous structural break tests and tests of cointegration with one or multiple breaks. Our results show that indeed this relation has changed over time and is subject to two or five regime changes. However, we do not find evidence for cointegration with or without breaks. The absence of a long-run equilibrium between oil and gold prices suggest that oil prices are biased predictor of gold prices. Hence, past information of oil prices is not relevant in forecasting gold prices.

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Most of the structural changes test developed in time series econometrics focus on abrupt structural breaks. Recently, smooth structural changes have gained increasing attention in time series and panel econometrics (see for instance Lee et al. (2016) and references inside).

It is possible that using the price of oil as the sole predictor of gold’s price may result in the omission of other potential regressors explaining the price of gold. It is also possible that the location and the number of structural breaks change if the omitted variables are taken into consideration. However, our aim is not to investigate the determinants of gold’s price but the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between these two commodities. We do not consider other possible cointegrating vectors because our main objective is to investigate the long-run oil-gold prices relationship precisely.

A similar strategy has been applied by Baharumshah et al. (2013) but in a panel data framework. They test the stationarity of the real interest rate parity, in the presence of multiple breaks, for thirteen Central and Eastern European countries over the period 1996-2011.

One ounce of fine gold = 31.1034768g.

Bundesbank constructs the series based on data from Samuel Montagu and Co. Ltd., FT and Reuters.

We also tested the stationarity of oil and gold prices around one and two breaks in the constant and the trend using respectively Lee and Strazicich (2001) and Narayan and Popp (2010) tests. These tests consider the break(s) under both the null hypothesis of unit root and the alternative of stationarity. The Lee and Strazicich (2001) test statistics for oil and gold prices are respectively -3.463 and -2.596 and the break dates are respectively March 19 2007 and June 10 2006. The critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% significance levels are respectively -5.15, -4.45 and -4.18, hence the test does not reject the null hypothesis of unit root with a break. The Narayan and Popp (2010) test statistics for oil and gold prices are respectively -0.838 and -1.535 and the test does not reject the null hypothesis of unit root with two breaks at 1%, 5% and 10% significance levels.

We also tried a 20% trimming value and the results of the test did not change

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Title: Gold and oil prices: stable or unstable long-run relationship
Authors: Charbel Bassil
Hassan Hamadi
Patrick Mardini
Publication date: 09-02-2018
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Journal of Economics and Finance / Issue 1/2019
Print ISSN: 1055-0925
Electronic ISSN: 1938-9744
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-018-9429-y

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