Good countries or good projects? Comparing macro and micro correlates of World Bank and Asian Development Bank project performance

This paper examines the micro and macro correlates of aid project outcomes in a sample of 3797 World Bank projects and 1322 Asian Development Bank projects. We find that project outcomes vary much more within countries than between countries: only 10–25 % of the variation in project outcomes is between countries, and the rest is within countries. Among country-level macro variables, GDP growth and the policy environment are significantly positively correlated with project outcomes. Among project-level micro variables, shorter project duration and the presence of additional financing are significantly correlated with better project outcomes. In addition, the track record of the project manager in delivering successful projects is highly significantly correlated with project outcomes. We find few significant differences between the two institutions in the relationship between these variables and project outcomes.