Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Netherlands

At this moment, a large number of coastal aquifers, especially shallow ones, already experience a severe saltwater intrusion caused by both natural as well as man-induced processes. Coastal aquifers, which are situated within the zone of influence of mean sea level (M.S.L.), will be threatened even more by the rise in global mean sea level. Present estimates of global mean sea level rise, as presented in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, range from 20 to 86 cm from the year 1990 to 2100, with a best estimate of 49 cm, including the cooling effect of aerosols [Warrick et al., 1995]. The extent of the impact of sea level rise on coastal aquifers depends on: (1) the time lag before a new state of dynamic equilibrium of the salinity distribution is reached and (2) the zone of influence of sea level rise in the aquifers.