Impact of Social and Institutional Indicators on the Homicide Rate in Ecuador: An Analysis Using Advanced Time Series Techniques

Over the last three decades, Ecuador has shifted from being one of the most violent countries in Latin America to being one of the safest countries. Recently, however, it became a country with high rates of intentional homicides again. This research aims to examine the impact of social (economic progress and unemployment) and institutional (corruption and government efficiency) indicators on the rate of intentional homicides in Ecuador during the 1990–2020 period. We use cointegration techniques with structural breaks and single-frequency Fourier cumulative causality models. The findings of the Hatemi (ME 35, 497–505) and as reported by Maki (ICJR, 30, 10–29) cointegration model show a long-term equilibrium relationship between five series. The structural breaks coincide with the application of public security policies and structural changes in this economy. In addition, we find a unique Fourier cumulative frequency causal relationship between the analyzed series. To reduce violent deaths, policy-makers must execute strategies that aim to improve the population's quality of life, implement corruption control mechanisms, and promote government efficiency.