Skip to main content
Top

2017 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

2. Indeterminacy in Real Business Cycle Models

Author : Kazuo Mino

Published in: Growth and Business Cycles with Equilibrium Indeterminacy

Publisher: Springer Japan

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The baseline real business cycle (RBC) model is a stochastic optimal growth model with flexible labor supply. The typical driving force of business fluctuations is a technological shock hitting the total factor productivity (TFP) of the aggregate economy in each period. In RBC models with equilibrium determinacy, the economy never fluctuates in response to non-fundamental shocks that only affect expatiations of households and firms. As discussed in the previous chapter, the necessary condition for the existence of sunspot-driven business cycles is that the equilibrium path of the economy is indeterminate.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Footnotes
1
As to this result, see the detailed investigations by Boldrin (1992) and Boldrin and Rustichini (1994).
 
2
The role of productive consumption is explored by Daito (2009), Steger (2002), and others.
 
3
There are two solutions of λ k .  We select one that corresponds to the stable saddle path.
 
4
A sample includes Abel (1990), Gali (1994), and Turnovsky and Monteiro (2007).
 
5
Remember that β > 1 + γ is necessary but not sufficient for indeterminacy. Eusepi (2009) implicitly assumed that determinacy holds even under β > 1 + γ. 
 
Literature
go back to reference Abel, A. (1990). Asset prices under habit formation and catching up with the Joneses. American Economic Review, 80, 38–42. Abel, A. (1990). Asset prices under habit formation and catching up with the Joneses. American Economic Review, 80, 38–42.
go back to reference Aiyagari, R. (1995). The econometrics of iindeterminacy: An applied study: A comment. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 43, 273–284.CrossRef Aiyagari, R. (1995). The econometrics of iindeterminacy: An applied study: A comment. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 43, 273–284.CrossRef
go back to reference Alonso-Carrera, J., Caballe, J., & Raurich, X. (2008). Can consumption spillovers be a source of equilibrium indeterminacy? Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, 2883–2902.CrossRef Alonso-Carrera, J., Caballe, J., & Raurich, X. (2008). Can consumption spillovers be a source of equilibrium indeterminacy? Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, 2883–2902.CrossRef
go back to reference Altug, S. (2009). Business cycles: Facts, fallacy and fantasy. Singapore: World Scientific.CrossRef Altug, S. (2009). Business cycles: Facts, fallacy and fantasy. Singapore: World Scientific.CrossRef
go back to reference Basu, S., & Fernald, J. (1997). Returns to scale in U.S. production: Estimates and implications. Journal of Political Economy, 105, 249–283.CrossRef Basu, S., & Fernald, J. (1997). Returns to scale in U.S. production: Estimates and implications. Journal of Political Economy, 105, 249–283.CrossRef
go back to reference Beaudry, P., & Portier, F. (2004). An exploration into Pigou’s theory of cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, 183–1216.CrossRef Beaudry, P., & Portier, F. (2004). An exploration into Pigou’s theory of cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, 183–1216.CrossRef
go back to reference Beaudry, P., & Portier, F. (2014). News-driven business cycles: Insights and challenges. Journal of Economic Literature, 52, 993–1074.CrossRef Beaudry, P., & Portier, F. (2014). News-driven business cycles: Insights and challenges. Journal of Economic Literature, 52, 993–1074.CrossRef
go back to reference Benhabib, J., & Farmer, R. (1994). Indeterminacy and increasing returns. Journal of Economic Theory, 63, 19–41.CrossRef Benhabib, J., & Farmer, R. (1994). Indeterminacy and increasing returns. Journal of Economic Theory, 63, 19–41.CrossRef
go back to reference Benhabib, J., & Farmer, R. E. (1996). Indeterminacy and sector specific externalities. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 397–419.CrossRef Benhabib, J., & Farmer, R. E. (1996). Indeterminacy and sector specific externalities. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 397–419.CrossRef
go back to reference Benhabib, J., & Farmer, R. (1999). Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics. In J. B. Taylor Michael Woodford (Ed.), Handbook of macroeconomics (Vol. 1, Part A, pp. 387–448). Amsterdam: Elsevier. Benhabib, J., & Farmer, R. (1999). Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics. In J. B. Taylor Michael Woodford (Ed.), Handbook of macroeconomics (Vol. 1, Part A, pp. 387–448). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
go back to reference Benhabib, J., & Nishimura, K. (1998). Indeterminacy and sunspots with constant returns. Journal of Economic Theory, 81, 58–96.CrossRef Benhabib, J., & Nishimura, K. (1998). Indeterminacy and sunspots with constant returns. Journal of Economic Theory, 81, 58–96.CrossRef
go back to reference Bennett, R., & Farmer, R. (2000). Indeterminacy with nonseparable utility. Journal of Economic Theory, 93, 118–143.CrossRef Bennett, R., & Farmer, R. (2000). Indeterminacy with nonseparable utility. Journal of Economic Theory, 93, 118–143.CrossRef
go back to reference Boldrin, M. (1992). Dynamic externalities, multiple equilibria, and growth. Journal of Economic Theory, 58, 198–218.CrossRef Boldrin, M. (1992). Dynamic externalities, multiple equilibria, and growth. Journal of Economic Theory, 58, 198–218.CrossRef
go back to reference Boldrin, M., & Rustichini, A. (1994). Growth and indeterminacy in dynamic models with externalities. Econometrica, 62, 23–342.CrossRef Boldrin, M., & Rustichini, A. (1994). Growth and indeterminacy in dynamic models with externalities. Econometrica, 62, 23–342.CrossRef
go back to reference Chen, B.-L., & Hsu, M. (2007). Admiration is a source of indeterminacy. Economics Letters, 95, 96–103.CrossRef Chen, B.-L., & Hsu, M. (2007). Admiration is a source of indeterminacy. Economics Letters, 95, 96–103.CrossRef
go back to reference Chen, B.-L., Hus, Y.-S., & Mino, K. (2013). Can Consumption habit spillovers be a source of equilibrium indeterminacy? Journal of Economics, 109, 245–269.CrossRef Chen, B.-L., Hus, Y.-S., & Mino, K. (2013). Can Consumption habit spillovers be a source of equilibrium indeterminacy? Journal of Economics, 109, 245–269.CrossRef
go back to reference Chen, B.-L., Hsu, Y.-S., & Mino, K. (2015). Welfare implications and equilibrium indeterminacy in a two-sector growth model with consumption externalities. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19, 535–577.CrossRef Chen, B.-L., Hsu, Y.-S., & Mino, K. (2015). Welfare implications and equilibrium indeterminacy in a two-sector growth model with consumption externalities. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19, 535–577.CrossRef
go back to reference Christiano, L., & Harrison, S. (1999). Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44; Cooper, R., & John, A. (1988). Coordinating coordination failures in Keynesian models. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103, 441–463. Christiano, L., & Harrison, S. (1999). Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44; Cooper, R., & John, A. (1988). Coordinating coordination failures in Keynesian models. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103, 441–463.
go back to reference Cooper, R. (1999). Macroeconomic complementarities. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Cooper, R. (1999). Macroeconomic complementarities. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Cooper, R., & John, A. (1988). Coordinating coordination failures in Keynesian models. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103, 441–463.CrossRef Cooper, R., & John, A. (1988). Coordinating coordination failures in Keynesian models. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103, 441–463.CrossRef
go back to reference Coury, T., & Wen, Y. (2009). Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models. International Journal of Economic Theory, 5, 49–60.CrossRef Coury, T., & Wen, Y. (2009). Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models. International Journal of Economic Theory, 5, 49–60.CrossRef
go back to reference Daito, I. (2009). Productive consumption and population dynamics in an endogen growth model: Demographic trends and human development aid in developing economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34, 696–709.CrossRef Daito, I. (2009). Productive consumption and population dynamics in an endogen growth model: Demographic trends and human development aid in developing economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34, 696–709.CrossRef
go back to reference Drugeon, J.-P., & Venditti, A. (2001). Intersectoral external effects, multiplicities and indeterminacies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 765–787.CrossRef Drugeon, J.-P., & Venditti, A. (2001). Intersectoral external effects, multiplicities and indeterminacies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 765–787.CrossRef
go back to reference Dufourt, F., Nishimura, K., & Venditti, A. (2015). Indeterminacy and sunspots in two-sector rbc models with generalized no-income-effect preferences. Journal of Economic Theory, 157, 1056–1080.CrossRef Dufourt, F., Nishimura, K., & Venditti, A. (2015). Indeterminacy and sunspots in two-sector rbc models with generalized no-income-effect preferences. Journal of Economic Theory, 157, 1056–1080.CrossRef
go back to reference Eusepi, S. (2009). On expectations-driven business cycles in economies with production externalities. International Journal of Economic Theory, 5, 9–23.CrossRef Eusepi, S. (2009). On expectations-driven business cycles in economies with production externalities. International Journal of Economic Theory, 5, 9–23.CrossRef
go back to reference Farmer, R. (2004). Macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies (2nd ed.). Cambridge: MIT Press. Farmer, R. (2004). Macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies (2nd ed.). Cambridge: MIT Press.
go back to reference Farmer, R. (2016). The evolution of endogenous business cycles. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 20, 544–557.CrossRef Farmer, R. (2016). The evolution of endogenous business cycles. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 20, 544–557.CrossRef
go back to reference Farmer, R., & Guo, J.-T. (1994). Real business cycles and animal spirit hypothesis. Journal of Economic Theory, 63, 42–72.CrossRef Farmer, R., & Guo, J.-T. (1994). Real business cycles and animal spirit hypothesis. Journal of Economic Theory, 63, 42–72.CrossRef
go back to reference Farmer, R., & Guo, J.-T.(1995). The econometrics of indeterminacy: An applied study. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 43, 225–271.CrossRef Farmer, R., & Guo, J.-T.(1995). The econometrics of indeterminacy: An applied study. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 43, 225–271.CrossRef
go back to reference Gali, J. (1994). Keeping up with the Joneses: Consumption externalities, portfolio choice, and aasset prices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26, 1–8.CrossRef Gali, J. (1994). Keeping up with the Joneses: Consumption externalities, portfolio choice, and aasset prices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26, 1–8.CrossRef
go back to reference Gali, J. (1995). Product diversity,eendogenous markups, and development traps. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36, 39–63. Gali, J. (1995). Product diversity,eendogenous markups, and development traps. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36, 39–63.
go back to reference Greenwood, G., Hercowitz, Z., & Huffman, G. (1988). Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle. American Economic Review, 78, 402–417. Greenwood, G., Hercowitz, Z., & Huffman, G. (1988). Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle. American Economic Review, 78, 402–417.
go back to reference Guo, J.-T., & Harrison, S. (2001b). Tax policy and stability in a model with sector-specific externalities. Review of Economic Dynamics, 4, 75–89.CrossRef Guo, J.-T., & Harrison, S. (2001b). Tax policy and stability in a model with sector-specific externalities. Review of Economic Dynamics, 4, 75–89.CrossRef
go back to reference Guo, J.-T., & Harrison, S. (2010). Indeterminacy with no-income-effect preferences and sector-specific externalities. Journal of Economic Theory, 145, 287–300.CrossRef Guo, J.-T., & Harrison, S. (2010). Indeterminacy with no-income-effect preferences and sector-specific externalities. Journal of Economic Theory, 145, 287–300.CrossRef
go back to reference Guo, J.-T., & Lansing, K. (2002). Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 6, 633–664.CrossRef Guo, J.-T., & Lansing, K. (2002). Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 6, 633–664.CrossRef
go back to reference Guo, J.-T., Sirbu, A.-L., & Suen, R. (2012). On expectations-driven business cycles in economies with production externalities: A comment. International Journal of Economic Theory, 8, 313–319.CrossRef Guo, J.-T., Sirbu, A.-L., & Suen, R. (2012). On expectations-driven business cycles in economies with production externalities: A comment. International Journal of Economic Theory, 8, 313–319.CrossRef
go back to reference Hansen, G. (1985). Indivisible labor and the business cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16, 309–327.CrossRef Hansen, G. (1985). Indivisible labor and the business cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16, 309–327.CrossRef
go back to reference Harrison, S. (2001). Indeterminacy in a model with sector-specific externalities. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 747–764.CrossRef Harrison, S. (2001). Indeterminacy in a model with sector-specific externalities. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 747–764.CrossRef
go back to reference Harrison, S. (2003). Returns to scale and externalities in the consumption and investment sectors. Review of Economic Dynamics, 6, 963–976.CrossRef Harrison, S. (2003). Returns to scale and externalities in the consumption and investment sectors. Review of Economic Dynamics, 6, 963–976.CrossRef
go back to reference Hintermaier, T. (2003). On the minimum degree of returns to scale in sunspot models of the business cycle. Journal of Economic Theory, 110, 400–409.CrossRef Hintermaier, T. (2003). On the minimum degree of returns to scale in sunspot models of the business cycle. Journal of Economic Theory, 110, 400–409.CrossRef
go back to reference Jaimovich, N. (2007). Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations. Journal of Economic Theory, 137, 300–325.CrossRef Jaimovich, N. (2007). Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations. Journal of Economic Theory, 137, 300–325.CrossRef
go back to reference Jaimovich, N. (2008). Income effects and indeterminacy in a calibrated one-sector growth model. Journal of Economic Theory, 143, 610–623.CrossRef Jaimovich, N. (2008). Income effects and indeterminacy in a calibrated one-sector growth model. Journal of Economic Theory, 143, 610–623.CrossRef
go back to reference Kamihigashi, T. (1996). Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 105–117.CrossRef Kamihigashi, T. (1996). Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 105–117.CrossRef
go back to reference King, R., Plosser, C., & Rebelo, S. (1988a). Production, growth and business cycles: I. The basic neoclassical model. Journal of Monetary Economics, 21, 195–232.CrossRef King, R., Plosser, C., & Rebelo, S. (1988a). Production, growth and business cycles: I. The basic neoclassical model. Journal of Monetary Economics, 21, 195–232.CrossRef
go back to reference Kydland, F., & Prescott, E. (1982). Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 50, 1345–1370.CrossRef Kydland, F., & Prescott, E. (1982). Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 50, 1345–1370.CrossRef
go back to reference Long, J., & Plosser, C. (1983). Real business cycles. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 39–69.CrossRef Long, J., & Plosser, C. (1983). Real business cycles. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 39–69.CrossRef
go back to reference Pavlov, O., & Weder, M. (2012). Variety matters. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36, 629–641.CrossRef Pavlov, O., & Weder, M. (2012). Variety matters. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36, 629–641.CrossRef
go back to reference Rogerson, R. (1988). Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium. Journal of Monetary Economics, 21, 3–16.CrossRef Rogerson, R. (1988). Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium. Journal of Monetary Economics, 21, 3–16.CrossRef
go back to reference Romer, P. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002–1037.CrossRef Romer, P. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002–1037.CrossRef
go back to reference Schmitt-Grohé, S. (1997). Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. Journal of Economic Theory, 72, 96–147.CrossRef Schmitt-Grohé, S. (1997). Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. Journal of Economic Theory, 72, 96–147.CrossRef
go back to reference Schmitt-Grohé, S. (2000). Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption. American Economic Review, 90, 1136–1159.CrossRef Schmitt-Grohé, S. (2000). Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption. American Economic Review, 90, 1136–1159.CrossRef
go back to reference Steger, T. (2002). Productive consumption, the intertemporal consumption trade-off and growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 26, 1053–1068. Steger, T. (2002). Productive consumption, the intertemporal consumption trade-off and growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 26, 1053–1068.
go back to reference Turnovsky, S., & Monteiro, G. (2007). Consumption externalities, production externalities, and efficient capital aaccumulation under time non-separable preferences. European Economic Review, 51, 479–504.CrossRef Turnovsky, S., & Monteiro, G. (2007). Consumption externalities, production externalities, and efficient capital aaccumulation under time non-separable preferences. European Economic Review, 51, 479–504.CrossRef
go back to reference Weder, M. (2000). Consumption externalities, production externalities and indeterminacy. Metroeconomica, 51, 435–453.CrossRef Weder, M. (2000). Consumption externalities, production externalities and indeterminacy. Metroeconomica, 51, 435–453.CrossRef
go back to reference Wen, Y. (1998). Capacity utilization under increasing returns to scale. Journal of Economic Theory, 81, 7–36.CrossRef Wen, Y. (1998). Capacity utilization under increasing returns to scale. Journal of Economic Theory, 81, 7–36.CrossRef
go back to reference Wen, Y. (2001). Understanding self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in real business cycle models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 1221–1240.CrossRef Wen, Y. (2001). Understanding self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in real business cycle models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 1221–1240.CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Indeterminacy in Real Business Cycle Models
Author
Kazuo Mino
Copyright Year
2017
Publisher
Springer Japan
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55609-1_2