Top

Published in:

2018 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

1. Is Box Office Still Relevant?

Author : Barrie Gunter

Published in: Predicting Movie Success at the Box Office

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config

AI-assisted search

Off

Abstract

This first chapter sets the scene by briefly reviewing the history of movie-making and the growth of movie-going. Global trends in movie attendance are examined together with an initial introduction to interest among market analysts and researchers in understanding what factors underpin the success of a new movie. For many years, this “understanding” was underpinned by professional intuition and informal analyses of the performance of previous movies. Systematic economic modelling did not begin until the 1980s following which a significant literature developed revealing a wide range of potentially influential factors. Each of these is then examined in more detail in subsequent parts of the book.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

next chapter Are the Most Expensive Movies the Most Successful?

Albert, S. (1999). Movie stars and the distribution of financially successful films in the motion picture industry. Journal of Cultural Economics, 23(4), 325–329.CrossRef

Adler, M. (1985). Stardom and talent. American Economic Review, 75(1), 208–212.

Anast, P. (1967). Differential movie appeals as correlates of attendance. Journalism Quarterly, 44, 86–90.CrossRef

Austin, B. A. (1984). Portrait of an art film audience. Journal of Communication, 34, 74–87.CrossRef

Austin, B. A. (1986). Motivations for movie attendance. Communication Quarterly, 34(2), 115–126.CrossRef

Bagella, M., & Bechetti, L. (1999). The determinants of motion picture box office performance: Evidence from movies produced in Italy. Journal of Cultural Economics, 23(4), 237–256.CrossRef

Baker, W. W., & Faulkner, R. R. (1991). Role as resource in the Hollywood film industry. American Journal of Sociology, 97(2), 279–309.CrossRef

Balio, T. (2013). Hollywood in the new millennium. London, UK: British Film Institute.CrossRef

Becker, B. W., Brewer, B., Dickerson, B., & Magee, R. (1985). The influence of personal values on movie preferences. In B. A. Austin (Ed.), Current research in film: Volume 1 (pp. 37–50). Norwood, NJ: Ablex.

Blowers, G. H. (1991). Psychological approaches to film audience research: A critique. In B. A. Austin (Ed.), Current research in film: Volume 5 (pp. 56–67). Norwood, NJ: Ablex.

Brewer, S. M., Kelley, J. M., & Jozefowicz, J. J. (2009). A blueprint for success in the US film industry. Applied Economics, 41(5), 589–606.CrossRef

Brook, T. (2014, October 21). How the global box office is changing Hollywood. BBC. Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/culture/story/20130620-is-china-hollywoods-future

Cameron, S. (1986). The supply and demand for cinema tickets: Some UK evidence. Journal of Cultural Economics, 10(1), 38–62.CrossRef

Cameron, S. (1988). The impact of video recorders on cinema attendance. Journal of Cultural Economics, 12(1), 73–80.CrossRef

Cameron, S. (1990). The demand for cinema in the United Kingdom. Journal of Cultural Economics, 14(1), 35–47.CrossRef

Cameron, S. (1999). Rational addiction and the demand for cinema. Applied Economic Letters, 6, 617–620.CrossRef

Chang, B. H., & Ki, E. J. (2005). Devising a practical model for predicting theatrical movie success: Focusing on the experience good property. Journal of Media Economics, 18(4), 247–269.CrossRef

Collins, A., & Hand, C. (2005). Analyzing moviegoing demand: An individual-level cross-sectional approach. Managerial and Decision Economics, 26, 319–330.CrossRef

Collins, A., Hand, C., & Snell, M. C. (2002). What makes a blockbuster? Economic analysis of film success in the United Kingdom. Managerial and Decision Economics, 23(6), 343–354.CrossRef

Cooper-Martin, E. (1991). Consumer and movies: Some findings on experiential products. Advances in Consumer Research, 18(1), 372–378.

Corbett, K. J. (2001). The big picture: Theatrical movie-going, digital television, and beyond the substitution effect. Cinema Journal, 40(2), 17–34.CrossRef

Cuadrado, M., & Frasquet, M. (1999). Segmentation in cinema audiences: An exploratory study applied to young consumers. Journal of Cultural Economics, 23(4), 257–267.CrossRef

D’Astous, A., & Touil, N. (1999). Consumer evaluations of movies on the basis of critics’ judgments. Psychology & Marketing, 16, 677–694.CrossRef

De Vany, A. S., & Eckert, R. (1991). Motion picture antitrust: The paramount cases revisited. Research in Law and Economics, 14, 51–112.

De Vany, A. S., & Lee, C. (2001). Quality signals in information cascades and the dynamics of the distribution of motion picture box office revenues. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25(3/4), 593–614.CrossRef

De Vany, A. S., & Walls, W. D. (1999). Uncertainty in the movie industry: Does star power reduce the terror of the box office? Journal of Cultural Economics, 23(4), 285–318.CrossRef

De Vany, A., & Walls, W. D. (2000). Does Hollywood make too many R-rated movies? Risk, stochastic dominance and the illusion of expectation. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.231635

Deloitte. (2016). The award for stable box office revenues in the face of digital media goes to… Available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Technology-Media-Telecommunications/gx-tmt-prediction-box-office-revenue.pdf

DeMaday, A. (1929). An enquiry respecting the cinematograph made in the schools of Neuchatel, Lausanne and Geneva. International Review of Educational Cinematography, 531–542, 638–667.

Dewenter, R., & Westerman, M. (2005). Cinema demand in Germany. Journal of Cultural Economics, 29, 213–231.CrossRef

Dominick, J. R. (1987). Film economics and film content: 1964–1983. Current Research in Film: Audiences, Economics and Law, 3, 136–153.

Elberse, A., & Eliashberg, J. (2003). Demand and supply dynamics for sequentially released products in international markets: The case of motion pictures. Marketing Science, 22(3), 329–347.CrossRef

Eliashberg, J., & Shugan, S. (1997). Film critics: Influencers or predictors? Journal of Marketing, 61, 68–78.CrossRef

Elliott, C., & Simmons, R. (2008). Determinants of UK box office success: The impact of quality signals. Review of Industrial Organization, 33(2), 93–111.CrossRef

Epstein, E. J. (2005). The big picture: Money and power in Hollywood. New York, NY: Random House Trade.

Epstein, E. J. (2011). The Hollywood economist: The hidden financial reality behind the movies. Hoboken, NJ: Melville House.

Fernandez-Blanco, V., & Banos-Pino, J. (1997). Cinema demand in Spain: A cointegration analysis. Journal of Cultural Economics, 21, 57–75.CrossRef

Gray, J. (2010). Show sold separately: Promos, spoilers and other media paratexts. New York, NY: New York University Press.

Gunter, B. (2014). Celebrity capital: Assessing the value of fame. New York, NY: Bloomsbury.

Hand, C. (2002). The distribution and predictability of cinema admissions. Journal of Cultural Economics, 26, 53–64.CrossRef

Hayes, D., & Bing, J. (2004). Open wide—How Hollywood box office became a national obsession. New York: Miramax.

Hennig-Thurau, T., Walsh, G., & Wruck, O. (2001). An investigation into the success factors of motion pictures. Academy of Marketing Science Review, 1(6). http://www.amsreview.org/amsrev/theory/hennig06-01.html

Holbrook, M. B. (2005). The role of ordinary evaluations in the market of popular culture: Do consumers have “good taste”? Marketing Letters, 16(2), 75–86.CrossRef

Jansen, C. (2005). The performance of German motion pictures, profits and subsidies: Some empirical evidence. Journal of Cultural Economics, 29(3), 191–212.CrossRef

Jedida, K., Krider, R., & Weinberg, C. (1998). Clustering at the movies. Marketing Letters, 9(4), 393–405.CrossRef

Joshi, A., & Mao, H. (2010). Adapting to succeed? Leveraging the brand equity of best sellers to succeed at the box office. Journal of Academy of Marketing Science, 40(4), 558–571.CrossRef

Lampel, J., & Shamsie, J. (2000). Critical push: Strategies for creating momentum in the motion picture industry. Journal of Management, 26(2), 233–257.CrossRef

Lazarsfeld, K. (1947). Audience research in the movie field. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, 254, 160–168.CrossRef

Lehmann, D. R., & Weinberg, C. B. (2000). Sales through sequential distribution channels: An application to movies and videos. Journal of Marketing, 64(3), 18–33.CrossRef

Litman, B. R. (1983). Predicting the success of theatrical movies: An empirical study. Journal of Popular Culture, 16, 159–175.CrossRef

Litman, B. R. (1998). The motion picture mega-industry. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn and Bacon.

Litman, B. R., & Ahn, H. (1998). Predicting financial success of motion pictures. In B. Litman (Ed.), The motion picture mega-industry. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon.

Litman, B. R., & Kohl, L. S. (1989). Predicting financial success of motion pictures: The 80’s experience. Journal of Media Economics, 2, 35–49.CrossRef

Macmillan, P., & Smith, I. (2001). Explaining post-war cinema attendance in Great Britain. Journal of Cultural Economics, 25, 91–108.CrossRef

McClintock, P. (2016, January 3). Global 2015 box office: Revenue hits record $38 billion-plus. The Hollywood Reporter. Available at: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/global-2015-box-office-revenue-851749. Accessed 9th September 2016.

McCormick, R. (2014, June 4). Video streaming services could make more money than the US box office by 2017. The Verge. Available at: https://www.theverge.com/2014/6/4/5781104/netflix-and-peers-will-make-more-money-than-box-office-by-2017

McDonald, K., & Smith-Rowsey, D. (Eds.). (2016). The Netflix effect: Technology and entertainment in the 21st century. New York, NY: Bloomsbury Academic.

McDonald, P., & Wasko, J. (Eds.). (2007). The contemporary Hollywood film industry. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Blackwell.

Miller, D., & Shamsie, J. (1996). The resource-based view of the firm in two environments: The Hollywood film studios from 1936 to 1965. Academy of Management Journal, 39, 519–543.CrossRef

Mirrlees, T. (2013). Global entertainment media: Between cultural imperialism and cultural globalisaztion. London, UK: Routledge.

Moller, K., & Karppinen, P. (1983). Role of motives and attributes in consumer motion picture choice. Journal of Economic Psychology, 3, 239–262.CrossRef

Moul, C. (Ed.). (2005). A concise handbook of movie industry economics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

MPAA. (2015). Theatrical market statistics 2014. Los Angeles, CA: Motion Picture Association of America. Available at: http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2015_Final.pdf. Accessed 29th August 2016.

Palmgreen, P., Cook, P. L., Harvill, J. G., & Helm, D. M. (1988). The motivational framework of moviegoing: Uses and avoidances of theatrical films. In B. A. Austin (Ed.), Current research in film: Volume 4. Norwood, NJ: Ablex.

Palmgreen, P., & Lawrence, P. (1991). Avoidances, gratifications and consumption of theatrical films. In B. A. Austin (Ed.), Current research in film: Volume 5. Norwood, NJ: Ablex.

Prag, J., & Casavant, J. (1994). An empirical study of the determinants of revenues and marketing expenditures in the motion picture industry. Journal of Cultural Economics, 18(3), 217–235.CrossRef

Ravid, S. A. (1999). Information blockbusters and stars: A study of the film industry. Journal of Business, 72(4), 463–492.CrossRef

Ravid, S. A., & Basuroy, S. (2004). Managerial objectives, the R-rating puzzle and the production of violent films. Journal of Business, 77(2), S155–S192.CrossRef

Reinstein, D. A., & Snyder, C. M. (2005). The influence of expert reviews on consumer demand for experience goods: A case study of movie critics. Journal of Industrial Economics, 53(1), 27–51.CrossRef

Sawhney, M., & Eliashberg, J. (1996). A parsimonious model for forecasting gross box-office revenues of motion pictures. Marketing Science, 15(2), 113–131.CrossRef

Simonoff, J. S., & Sparrow, I. R. (2000). Predicting movie grosses: Winners and losers, Blockbusters and sleepers. Chance, 13(3), 15–24.CrossRef

Simonton, D. K. (2009). Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry. Psychology & Marketing, 26(5), 400–420.CrossRef

Smith, S. P., & Smith, V. K. (1986). Successful movies: A preliminary empirical analysis. Applied Economics, 18, 501–507.CrossRef

Smits, R. (2016, August 30). Industry report: Distribution and exhibition: Beyond traditional release strategies. InEuropa. Available at: http://www.cineuropa.org/dd.aspx?t=dossier&l=en&did=314689&tid=1369. Accessed 16th October 2017.

Sochay, S. (1994). Predicting the performance of motion pictures. Journal of Media Economics, 7(4), 1–20.CrossRef

Stimpert, J. L., & Laux, J. A. (2008). Factors influencing motion picture success: Empirical review and update. Journal of Business and Economic Research, 6(11), 39–51.

The Numbers. (2016). Domestic movie theatrical market summary 1995 to 2016. Available at: http://www.the-numbers.com/market/. Accessed 17th August 2016.

Tryon, C. (2013). Co-demand culture: Digital delivery and the future of movies. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.

Ulin, J. (2012). The business of media distribution. London, UK: Taylor & Francis.

Valenti, J. (1978). Motion pictures and their impact on society in the year 2001. Kansas City, MO: Midwest Research Institute.

Vogel, H. L. (2004). Entertainment industry economics (6th ed.). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.

Walls, W. D. (1997). Increasing returns to information: Evidence from the Hong Kong movie market. Applied Economics Letters, 4(5), 287–290.CrossRef

Walls, W. D. (2008). Cross-country analysis of movie piracy. Applied Economics, 40(5), 625–632.CrossRef

Wasko, J. (2003). How Hollywood works. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.

Wasko, J. (2005). Critiquing Hollywood: The political economy of motion pictures. In C. Moul (Ed.), A concise handbook of movie industry economics (pp. 5–31). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef

Wolk, A. (2015). Over the top: How the Internet is (slowly but surely) changing the television industry. Create Space Independent Publishing Platform. www.createspace.com

Yamamura, E. (2008). Socio-economic effects of increased cinema attendance: The case of Japan. Journal of Socio-Economics, 37, 2546–2555.CrossRef

Title: Is Box Office Still Relevant?
Author: Barrie Gunter
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Predicting Movie Success at the Box Office
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-71802-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-71803-3

Copyright Year: 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71803-3_1