Is the Rise of Emerging Countries as Automobile Producers an Irreversible Phenomenon?

Trade magazines1 have been rife with predictions that new countries are making a grand entrance onto the automotive industry’s global stage, and this is also a recurring theme in the strategic plans made by automotive companies (car and component makers). Despite disappointment in the recent growth rates of the Central European, Latin American (Mexico, Brazil) and, lately, South East Asian markets, most observers today still appear to consider that the rise of the emerging countries is unstoppable. However, similar breakthroughs have already been widely announced on several different occasions, and even though they never really materialised, the top international experts (Altshuler et al. 1984) have often been somewhat too quick to agree with these forecasts. It is, therefore, worthwhile asking whether or not the emergence of new automotive countries is an irreversible phenomenon. After having described the recent rise of the emerging countries, and after having analysed the factors involved, this chapter will explore the uncertainties associated with expectations for growth in these markets.