Jihadist Infiltration of Migrant Flows to Europe

This chapter offers a critical assessment of the highly politicized debate regarding terrorist infiltration of the recent wave of migration to Europe. Mullins argues that while on one end of the political spectrum, the threat has been greatly exaggerated, while on the other it has been summarily dismissed. Both historical and contemporary evidence are presented to show that terrorists have long exploited European asylum systems and continue to do so today. Yet, as is also made clear, the extent to which terrorists have infiltrated recent migration flows remains controversial, divisive and poorly understood. The need for systematic and empirical analysis of this issue is therefore particularly acute. As explained in the sections on “terminology” and “methodology”, the book attempts to address this need with an in-depth examination of more than a hundred jihadi “terrorist asylum-seekers” who came to Europe since the beginning of the recent migration crisis in 2011.

This chapter begins with an assessment of the scale of terrorist infiltration of recent migration flows, finding that although the real number is considerably higher than can actually be identified, it nevertheless remains far less than 1% of the total number of recent asylum-seekers. Focusing on those that have been identified, Mullins proceeds to break down the sample in terms of “individual classifications” (i.e. the type of allegations that have been made against each person) and “confidence ratings” (the degree of confidence that they were both terrorists and asylum-seekers). Status within the asylum system is then examined in greater detail, followed by the geographic distribution and nationality of “terrorist asylum-seekers” in Europe. The chapter concludes with a discussion of demographic and personal characteristics of individuals in the sample, including gender, age, marital status, criminal history and mental health.

This chapter explores the migration routes that have been used by “terrorist asylum-seekers”, as well as the timing and methods of movement across international borders. The available data suggest that the majority of individuals in the sample began their journeys in Syria or Iraq and came to Europe by way of the Balkans, primarily during 2015. In this respect, the movement of terrorists is found to have mirrored the broader flow of migrants. The same can be said regarding methods of travel, with terrorists relying upon smugglers, sometimes utilizing false documents—or having no documents at all—and being exposed to substantial hardship and risks on their journey. Although infiltration of Europe remains the primary concern, the chapter concludes with a discussion of exfiltration by terrorist asylum-seekers, which, though much less common, also has serious implications for European and international security.

This chapter sheds light on the operational activities of “terrorist asylum-seekers” in Europe, as well as the nature of connections to foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) and involvement in crime. Although connections are found to more than a dozen FTOs, the majority are linked to ISIS. Moreover, with one exception, ISIS is the only organization known to have invested in “external operations” against Europe using terrorist asylum-seekers. However, an analysis of relevant plots and attacks suggests that high levels of organizational support have been the exception rather than the rule. Besides plotting and conducting attacks, Mullins reveals that terrorist asylum-seekers have engaged in a range of “non-violent” support activities, including promotion of jihadist ideology, recruitment, facilitation of travel and fundraising. The chapter concludes with a discussion of connections to crime, which have served as an important enabler for terrorists, while also providing vital opportunities for law enforcement.

This chapter examines the ways in which “terrorist asylum-seekers” have been detected and dealt with from a counter-terrorism (CT) perspective. Specifically, this chapter analyses the point of detection, sources of investigations and judicial outcomes for those who have been prosecuted. Mullins finds that the majority of terrorist asylum-seekers have been detected not at the external borders, but within Europe itself—typically more than a year after they first arrived. Meanwhile, the number one source of investigations has been tip-offs, most notably from other asylum-seekers and refugees. Information provided by foreign partners—particularly the USA—has also played an important role, followed by border control and proactive CT efforts within Europe. Beyond the initial point of detection, the investigation and prosecution of terrorist asylum-seekers have been complex and fraught with difficulty, not least due to evidentiary challenges.

In this chapter, Mullins draws upon interviews with a variety of practitioners working in counter-terrorism (CT) and immigration, as well as NGO workers and a recent refugee, to provide a critical assessment of European CT. The chapter begins by identifying key developments in CT, ranging from capacity building measures in the “hotspots” in Greece and Italy to the development of tailored intervention programmes aimed at preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE). This is followed by a discussion of challenges in this particular area of CT, which include a lack of information on foreign nationals, difficulties in information sharing, and dealing with large amounts of unreliable and misleading information. The chapter concludes with policy recommendations organized into the following themes: international and interagency information sharing and cooperation; human intelligence and tip-offs; outreach; databases; capacity building; criminal and administrative sanctions; reducing vulnerabilities to radicalization; and putting CT in context.