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2022 | Book

Introduction to the Potential Impact of E-Mobility on the Automotive Value Chain Read chapter Read first chapter

The Potential Impact of E-Mobility on the Automotive Value Chain

Authors: Kaan Y. Ciftci, Prof. Dr. Alex Michel, Prof. Dr. Patrick Siegfried

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Book Series : SpringerBriefs in Business

Part of: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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About this book

This book provides extensive insight into the impact of electro-mobility (e-Mobility) on traditional automobile manufacturers. The authors analyse the drivers of e-Mobility and develop a forecast model with the help of exclusive industry reports from leading investment banks and reveal the impact on the automotive value chain. Apart from empirical analysis of the reports, the book also presents insights based on expert interviews with the leading automobile supplier Continental, the consultancy firm KPMG, the market-leading leasing company Deutsche Leasing, and a VW-Audi car dealer.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction to the Potential Impact of E-Mobility on the Automotive Value Chain
Abstract
The introduction chapter provides a bird’s eye view on the transforming mindset of private transportation which drives the development of EVs. Industry experts indicate that ICEs will be replaced by EVs, which is strongly driven by technological innovations, urbanization, policy makers, and by current mega trends. Getting from point A to B has become a matter of efficiency. With broad and flexible mobility opportunities nowadays customer preferences will change, which give new companies the chance to enter the automobile industry and challenge traditional car manufacturers. This will force traditional car manufacturers to adapt their value chain.
This chapter derives the objective of this book by stating the four pivotal questions in order to answer the central question “how does e-mobility impact the automotive value chain of traditional automobile manufacturers?”. Additionally, it explains the research design used to answer the pivotal questions.
Furthermore, the introduction is giving an overview of how expert interviews with well-known companies like KPMG and Deutsche Leasing as well as how valuable research reports from leading investment banks such as Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and UBS are used to answer the central question of this scientific research.
Kaan Y. Ciftci, Alex Michel, Patrick Siegfried
Chapter 2. Drivers of E-Mobility
Abstract
This chapter analyzes the key drivers of electro-mobility and places the current status quo into the context of the historical development of electro-mobility. Climate change will be exhibited as a strong driver of electro-mobility, as alternative powertrains are identified as the most potential way of reducing CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the analysis of the key drivers shows that the development of e-mobility is contributed by technological innovations, charging infrastructure, and changing customer preferences.
The “energy consumption and urbanization” section discusses how the scarcity of oil as a definite resource is contributing to the evolvement of EVs and also how the “Elon Musk effect” is causing a humongous price competition between renewable energies and within the oil industry. It has been identified that oil is a finite resource but will not run out in the foreseeable future.
This section also shows that oil is not the crucial influencing factor for EVs. Moreover, it underlines that the development of oil is strongly dependent on the future development of EVs.
The “customer preferences” subsection of this chapter plays a key role in the analysis of the development of electro-mobility as it contributes to the demand function. The analysis is based on literature, empirical models, and valuable conducted studies. The section identifies factors which are impacting customer preferences the most and divides them into financial, technical, policy, and individual variables. Additionally, it analyzes the correlation of these variables with the willingness to buy an EV, in order to find out, which variables are impacting customer preferences significantly. As a result, the subsection works out that the potential financial advantage has the strongest correlation with the buy decision of customers. The chapter also shows that individual variables are impacting buying decisions significantly taking personal attitudes, socio-demographic factors, psychological factors, and social influence into consideration.
Kaan Y. Ciftci, Alex Michel, Patrick Siegfried
Chapter 3. Development of E-Mobility
Abstract
This chapter analyzes numerous relevant studies, forecast, scenario models, surveys, and reports, in order to give a profound statement about the future development of e-mobility. Reports and studies used in this book contain very current and deep industry insights from research departments of renowned consultancies and investment banks. Based on the analyzed studies and models, an average value will be calculated and will be used for the forecast model of this book. The forecast model lays the scientific starting point for the following chapters of the book.
First of all, a big picture of the current EV market will be given, in order to understand the current key markets, market share of EVs, key OEMs, etc., within the automotive e-mobility industry. Within the three core markets of EVs, China is leading the global EV market with a strong focus on BEVs rather than on PHEVs. Additionally, this chapter shows that EVs are constantly increasing market share and represent a global growth market. Tesla leads the EV sales of American OEMs. In Europe, Renault and the VW group are predominantly European OEM sales leaders followed by BMW. In the Asian market, Nissan and BYD are dominating the EV sales of Asian automobile manufacturers in 2016.
In the second part of this chapter, different influencing factors will be evaluated. Subsequently, different forecast models and scenario models will be outlined. Therefore, exclusive reports from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, and Deloitte will be analyzed.
From the revealed information an own forecast model for the development of e-mobility will be derived.
The result of the forecast analysis shows that the global electric vehicle sales will surpass the sales of conventional internal combustion engines between 2030 and 2040.
The main drivers derived from the analyzed reports contain: Decreasing cost of batteries within the future, shifting consumer preferences toward EVs, decreasing consumer prices and finance cost, improving charging infrastructure, increasing battery life, decreasing cost of ownership, increasing EV driving range, decreasing EV manufacturing costs, increasing ICE manufacturing costs, ambitious EV sales targets for China, falling diesel sales and residual vehicle pricing in EU, and reduced EV charging infrastructure costs.
Kaan Y. Ciftci, Alex Michel, Patrick Siegfried
Chapter 4. The Impact of E-Mobility on the Automobile Industry
Abstract
This chapter focuses on the changes which are directly affecting the value chain of large automotive manufacturers due to electro-mobility.
The chapter also provides an external view and analysis on what deeply changes within the automobile market and how e-mobility is mainly changing the basic idea of mobility. Due to changes within the industry and the shifting idea of mobility, a more internal view (vies from manufacturers) will be given within the following chapter.
Kaan Y. Ciftci, Alex Michel, Patrick Siegfried
Chapter 5. New Entrants
Abstract
This chapter will outline who the new entrants of the automobile industry are and which new concept and services they are providing to the industry.
As analyzed within the previous chapters, the global electric vehicle sales will surpass the sales of conventional internal combustion engines between 2030 and 2040. In this pace of change, new entrants from cross-industries like technology companies, mobility providers, specialized suppliers, and energy providers are implementing new products and services to the automobile market.
Kaan Y. Ciftci, Alex Michel, Patrick Siegfried
Chapter 6. Value Chain Transition and Potential Strategies
Abstract
This chapter will focus on the last pivotal question of this book and will investigate the question “How can OEMs change their value chain in order not to stay out from the future automobile market?”
Due to the previous identified trends and new market entrants, traditional automobile manufacturers are forced to adapt their business models and to increase vertical integration. Furthermore, they will integrate new competencies such as: After sales and financial services, mobility services, and charging infrastructure into their value chain. Due to these changes, manufacturers are moving away from their traditional core business and have to reposition themselves within the automobile industry.
Based on the findings of the previous chapters regarding the important indicators, the development and the impact of e-mobility, this chapter will provide potential strategies for traditional automobile manufacturers. As a result, following five general strategies can be derived. Traditional OEMs have to: Adapt their production process, adapt after sales and financing solutions, add new mobility services, provide charging infrastructure, and gain competencies from tech companies for future trends.
Kaan Y. Ciftci, Alex Michel, Patrick Siegfried
Chapter 7. Conclusion of the Potential Impact of E-Mobility on the Automotive Value Chain
Abstract
Due to the present development of e-mobility and technological trends, this book tried to investigate the impact of e-mobility and associated trends such as shared economy on the automobile industry. The book was designed to answer the question of how e-mobility is impacting the automotive value chain of traditional manufacturers, thereby contributing to the adaption to the new era of mobility.
Kaan Y. Ciftci, Alex Michel, Patrick Siegfried
Metadata
Title
The Potential Impact of E-Mobility on the Automotive Value Chain
Authors
Kaan Y. Ciftci
Prof. Dr. Alex Michel
Prof. Dr. Patrick Siegfried
Copyright Year
2022
Electronic ISBN
978-3-030-95599-1
Print ISBN
978-3-030-95598-4
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95599-1

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