Long-term declines of a highly interactive urban species

Urbanization generates shifts in wildlife communities, with some species increasing their distribution and abundance, while others decline. We used a dataset spanning 15 years to assess trends in distribution and habitat dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a highly interactive species, in urban habitat remnants in Denver, CO, USA. Both available habitat and number of prairie dog colonies declined steeply over the course of the study. However, we did observe new colonization events that correlated with habitat connectivity. Destruction of habitat may be slowing, but the rate of decline of prairie dogs apparently remained unaffected. By using our estimated rates of loss of colonies throughout the study, we projected a 40% probability that prairie dogs will be extirpated from this area by 2067, though that probability could range as high as 50% or as low as 20% depending on the rate of urban development (i.e. habitat loss). Prairie dogs may fulfill important ecological roles in urban landscapes, and could persist in the Denver area with appropriate management and habitat protections.