Mathematical Modelling of Perturbations of the Lake Baikal Ecosystem and Identification of the Model on the Basis of Experiments

This paper presents a perspective direction in investigations at the cross-point of such sciences as biology, mathematical modelling, ecotoxieology, system analysis. Presently, we developed a complex of mathematical models of different levels. The technology of information filling of the model of ecosystem’s anthropogenic perturbations, which is based on goal-oriented experiments determined by the type of model, and also algorithms of object identification through a series of experiments, are elaborated. A technology of constructing model ecosystems (so called physics models) for studying the response of separate subsystems and of the whole ecosystem to anthropogenic affects is proposed. A methodic forecasting scenario of anthropogenic affects on the ecosystem of Lake Baikal is computed.