Mortality and Cancer Incidence 1952–1990 in UK Participants in the UK Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Tests and Experimental Programmes

In order to study the long-term effects of participating in the United Kingdom’s atmospheric nuclear weapon tests and experimental programmes which took place in Australia and the Pacific Ocean between 1952 and 1967, a total of 21,358 men who took part in the tests have been identified from archives of the Ministry of Defence and followed up to 1 January 1991. The mortality and incidence of cancer in these men were compared with those in 22,333 controls selected from the same archives. In the period of more than 10 years after initial test participation, mortality was found to be low compared with that expected from national rates both for all neoplasms and for all other causes of death (SMRs of 0.84 and 0.82, respectively), and rates in test participants and controls were very similar (RR = 0.97, 90% CI 0.91, 1.04 for incidence of all neoplasms and RR = 1.02, 90% CI 0.96, 1.08 for mortality from all causes of death other than neoplasms). Rates were also examined for leukaemia and 26 other kinds of cancer, and for 15 other causes of death. It is concluded that participation in the nuclear weapon programme testing programmes has not had a detectable effect on the participants’ expectation of life or on their risk of developing cancer or other fatal diseases. The suggestion from a previous study that participants may have experienced small hazards of leukaemia and multiple myeloma is not supported by the additional data, and the excesses observed previously now appear likely to have been a chance finding, although the possibility that test participation may have caused a small risk of leukaemia in the early years of the tests cannot be completely ruled out.